UK heat-related deaths could surge sixfold by 2100

Heat-related deaths in the UK could surge more than sixfold by the end of the century if global temperatures continue to rise. Scientists warn that humanity has just five years to cut carbon emissions to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. The average global temperature is increasing by 0.26C per decade, according to a new report from researchers led by the University of Leeds, marking an unprecedented rate.

Despite this summer’s wet and wintry start, global warming’s detrimental effects are undeniable. Research into future temperatures and heat-related deaths highlights the alarming scale of the crisis. Research in the Lancet Global Health journal predicts that cold-related deaths, currently higher than those caused by heat, will remain significant, with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.

European modelling data from 30 countries suggest that heat-related deaths could triple across the continent by 2100, rising from 43,729 to 128,809 annually. The UK faces even more concerning projections.

Dr Juan-Carlos Ciscar from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre stated, “Our analysis shows a dramatic shift in the ratio of cold-heat deaths over this century, with heat-related deaths increasing across Europe and surging in some areas.”

He added, “Cold-related deaths will decline slightly overall. Our study covers more than 1,000 regions across 30 countries, identifying hotspots where future impacts will be most severe.”

In the UK, annual heat-related deaths are predicted to rise from 1,258 to 7,931, while cold-related deaths are expected to increase slightly from 64,195 to 64,952 by the century’s end. In Ireland, cold-related deaths are expected to jump from 3,974 to 7,696 annually, while heat-related fatalities are projected to climb from 30 to 563 each year.

Eastern Europe and the Baltic states have the highest cold-related deaths, while Central and Southern Europe have the lowest. Heat-related deaths are most common in Croatia and southern Europe, with the lowest rates in the UK and Scandinavian countries.

Despite global commitments to reduce emissions, a United Nations report from last year indicates the world is on track for nearly a 3C temperature rise by the century’s end. Dr David Garcia-Leon from the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission highlighted the need for targeted policies to protect those most at risk from temperature extremes.

Dr Leslie Mabon, an environmental systems lecturer at The Open University, who was not involved in the study, remarked, “The findings align with existing research showing that temperature extremes disproportionately affect the elderly and the least well-off.”

He noted, “The study reveals clear differences in risk across countries and regions, indicating that demographic and socio-economic factors influence our vulnerability to temperature extremes.”

Mabon suggested counter-measures, such as investing in health infrastructure, implementing heat and cold preparedness plans, and improving the quality of buildings, could reduce mortality under a changing climate.