Southeast Asia leans toward China over US, 2026 survey finds
A survey published by a Singaporean institute has found that a slim majority of respondents across Southeast Asia would align with China over the United States if forced to choose between the two powers.
The poll, conducted between January 5 and February 20, 2026, covered 2,008 respondents from all 11 ASEAN member states, including Timor-Leste, which joined the bloc in 2025. The findings appear in the institute’s annual “State of Southeast Asia 2026” report.
The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute discovered that fifty-two percent of respondents said they would side with China, compared to 48% who chose the US. The report notes that the narrow margin reflects a region that remains broadly divided rather than clearly tilted toward either power.
The result continues a pattern of shifting preferences in recent years. China led in the 2024 survey, the US recovered to take the lead in 2025, and China returned to the top position in 2026.
Results varied considerably by country. Among those favouring China, Indonesia recorded the highest share at 80.1%, followed by Malaysia (68%), Singapore (66.3%), Timor-Leste (58.2%), Thailand (55%), and Brunei (53.5%).
Countries where respondents leaned toward the US included the Philippines (76.8%), Myanmar (61.4%), Cambodia (61%), and Vietnam (59.2%). Laos recorded a near-even split.
The report attributes much of the variation to economic and security ties. Countries with strong economic dependence on China tended to favour Beijing, while those with closer security relationships with the US, such as the Philippines, remained more firmly in Washington’s camp.
Despite the overall lean toward China, the report indicates that most respondents prefer to maintain neutrality. However, the institute notes that economic and security pressures may eventually push nations to take clearer sides.
More than 55.6% of respondents said they expect their country’s relationship with China to improve over the next three years.
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