Thaksin faces jail as court drops royal insult verdict
Court ruling coincides with return-from-exile anniversary and rising pressure on daughter Paetongtarn
Thailand’s political soap opera enters a tense new chapter as the Criminal Court delivers its long-awaited verdict today in the lese majeste case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, exactly two years after his dramatic return from exile.
Security is being ramped up around the courthouse, with media crews banned from entering without prior approval. Reporters will be allowed to film from designated areas and must wear visible press IDs at all times. The courtroom itself will be closed to journalists; only plaintiffs and defendants are permitted inside for the verdict.
The case stems from a 2015 interview with South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, in which Thaksin allegedly blamed “some people in the palace” and privy councillors for the 2014 coup that ousted his sister Yingluck’s government. He also drew parallels with his ousting in 2006.
Although technically the Privy Council is not protected under Thailand’s lese majeste law, which criminalises defamation of the king, queen, heir or regent, the law has been increasingly interpreted to cover anything seen as tarnishing the monarchy’s image.
“The case against him looks weak at first glance, but the political timing is explosive,” an analyst said.
If found guilty, Thaksin faces up to 15 years in prison, though he could be granted bail while appealing. Many believe the case is part of a broader crackdown on the Shinawatra family, long considered a thorn in the side of Thailand’s conservative establishment.
Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was recently suspended as prime minister over a leaked phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen, in which she criticised Thailand’s army commander. The Constitutional Court will decide her fate next week.
Rumours persist of a secret political bargain made upon Thaksin’s return in 2023, allowing his Pheu Thai Party to form a coalition and keep reformist rivals at bay. However, his continued influence and controversial Vision for Thailand plan, including legalised casinos, have angered many conservatives, the BBC and The Nation reported.
Despite stepping away from the spotlight, Thaksin is still believed to pull the strings within the Pheu Thai Party.
What happens today could determine whether the Shinawatra political dynasty rises again or finally crumbles.
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