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China’s economy expected to grow 1.6% in 2020 – World Bank

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China’s economy expected to grow 1.6% in 2020 – World Bank | The Thaiger
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Much the world is currently seeing continuing surges of new Covid-19 cases, some countries are well into their 2nd wave. Meanwhile China is quietly getting it’s industrial engine and economy going again as new cases. In fact China’s number of ‘active cases’ has been dropping since April, and now is fewer than 200 total cases across the country. Along with a return to work and ‘normal’ life, the country’s economy is again chugging along as the rest of the world scrambles for a solution to ‘containment’ or a reduction in cases.

China's economy expected to grow 1.6% in 2020 - World Bank | News by The Thaiger

GRAPH: worldometers.info

The world’s 2nd largest economy appears to be the only major world economic power to dodge a recession in 2020. China’s GDP is expected to actually grow 1.6% this year, nothing amazing, except when compared to the rest of the world which is in negative growth territory as a result of the shutdowns and border closures that has crippled much of the world’s businesses.

Globally, it is predicted that economies will contract an average of 5.2%, based on projections from the World Bank.

Chinese officials point to their relatively swift, albeit draconian, lockdowns in affected populations. Millions of Chinese were confined to their homes, with food and provisions being delivered to them in a government-coordinated, ‘safe’ manner, so householders wouldn’t have to leave their homes, in some cases, up to 2 months.

The Chinese government also pumped money, valued around hundreds of billions of US dollars, for major infrastructure projects, offered cash incentives to stimulate local spending in the small business sector, and kept its borders largely closed, except for certain visas and business travellers. The ‘pay off’ is indicated with travel for the traditionally busy Golden Week celebrations showing high booking rates and planeloads of tourists.

The bottomline on all this activity will be a 1.1% increase in its share of GDP, more than 3 times its share in the past 12 months.

Meanwhile, both Europe and the US will see their share of world GDP drop slightly this year. China’s share of global GDP is forecast to finish 2020 with 17.5% of the entire world economy. Whilst growth figures of world economies forecast that China’s GDP would eventually surpass the US sometime in the mid to late 2020’s, that landmark will now occur much sooner, according to projections from the World Bank.

Even the wave of anti-Chinese sentiment is doing little to impact or unravel the highly connected trade and economic relationships with the industrial superpower. Some companies have moved their head offices, and in some cases factories, out of China to avoid some government’s trade restrictions. But the nett impact has been less than 1% in trade activity at this time.

China’s economy continues to benefit from its pivotal role in global supply chains. The research and advisory group Oxford Economics reports that China will increase its share of global GDP by around 1% this year, confirming projections from the World Bank.

Despite rhetoric from Washington, US foreign direct investment into China actually rose 6% in the first six months of 2020, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. According to their report, many US multinational companies remain committed to their investment and engagement with Chinese manufacturing. In reality, Macquarie Bank’s China office predicts it will take decades for trade partners to unravel from the intricate supply chains, even if the anti Chinese government sentiment continues to persist.

This weeks’ Golden Week holidays commemorate the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and the Moon Festival, and is one of China’s busiest travel seasons of the year. An estimated 630 million people travelled during the week-long holiday which ended Thursday. The number equates to just over 80% of the travel figures for last year’s festival. local tourist spending reaching 70% of last year’s tourist spend, according to Macquarie Bank’s China office.

And gross revenue for China’s Golden Week box office hit 3.92 billion yuan (US$580 million), selling nearly 100 million tickets, which makes it the 2nd highest box office during the holiday week’s Chinese film history, according to “China’s box office” app.

But even before the annual break, China’s economy had been showing signs of a general recover. Manufacturing activity rose to a 6 month high in September, according to media group Caixin, which surveys small business activity and advertising expenditure.

And an official survey released at the start of October indicated activity in the country’s service sector at its highest level in nearly 7 years. The senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, Wang Zhe, says that China’s economic recovery appears to be well underway.

“Overall, the economy remained in a post-epidemic recovery phase and improved at a faster pace.”

Oxford Economics report that US-China tensions remain a concern, even as foreign direct investment continues to grow.

“If the US were to decouple significantly from China, the country’s growth would trend less than 0.5% lower per year through to 2040… as long as other developed countries maintained most ties.”

SOURCES: Oxford Economics | CNN | China Box Office | worldometers.info | Caixin

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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Avatar

    RR

    October 11, 2020 at 3:10 pm

    Only 1.6%, it is a disaster also there, where they usually are on the 7-8% range

  2. Avatar

    Nick

    October 11, 2020 at 9:24 pm

    Looking at where the sources from, and I don’t believe whatever CNN, any Chinese media say! I think they are sure in profound trouble right now after the US trade war and all other surrounding countries such as Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan, and the Philippine.

    • Avatar

      Leo Z

      October 14, 2020 at 5:23 am

      The numbers come from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, commonly known as National BS.

      The real talk in China is about drastically reduced spending (the Chinese are frugal, especially in times of uncertainty) and underemployment-unemployment, which is under-reported, and where the government, unlike in the West, doesn’t hand out $250-$500 a week in unemployment benefits.

    • Avatar

      Don R

      October 19, 2020 at 2:42 pm

      China is probably quite happy to ride out the storm. While the Western world is cowering in the basement, Chinese students have been in school studying for the future. Must be nice to live in a country that still has a future!

  3. Avatar

    Waverider

    October 12, 2020 at 4:47 pm

    They need to get some food for the poor in the winter.
    I see a famin ahead

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Coronavirus (Covid-19)

12 new Covid-19 cases in Thai quarantine

Caitlin Ashworth

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12 new Covid-19 cases in Thai quarantine | The Thaiger

12 new Covid-19 cases were detected in quarantine, according to the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration. The total number of confirmed cases is raised to 3,775 with 3,585 recoveries and 59 deaths. 131 are currently receiving medical treatment for the coronavirus. Here’s a list of the cases identified in the past 24 hours…

  • 4 Thai people, ages 26, 30, 42 and 52, travelling from the United Arab Emirates tested positive for Covid-19. They arrived on October 23 and 24, testing positive 4 to 5 days after arrival. 3 of them were on the same flight as 4 other previously confirmed coronavirus cases.
  • A 32 year old Brazilian engineer travelling from the Philippines tested positive for Covid-19 while at a quarantine hotel in Bangkok. He arrived on October 22 and tested positive 5 days later. He did not have symptoms.
  • A 34 year old Thai woman travelling from the United States and Taiwan tested positive for Covid-19 while at a quarantine facility in Chon Buri. She arrived on October 23 and tested positive 5 days later. She did not have symptoms.
  • 3 people travelling from India tested positive for Covid-19, including a woman who had been diagnosed with the coronavirus on September 28.
  • A 30 year old Myanmar woman tested positive for Covid-19. She arrived on October 28 and tested positive the next day while quarantined at a Bangkok hospital for treatment unrelated to the coronavirus.
  • A 43 year old man travelling from Ethiopia tested positive for Covid-19 on October 28 upon arrival. He was quarantined at a Bangkok hospital for treatment unrelated to the coronavirus.
  • A 25 year old Thai student travelling from Jordan tested positive for Covid-19 upon arrival on October 27 during a screening at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport. He had symptoms of a runny nose.

12 new Covid-19 cases in Thai quarantine | News by The Thaiger

12 new Covid-19 cases in Thai quarantine | News by The Thaiger

Daily new Covid-19 cases in Thailand as of October 29, according to Worldometers.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand

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Phuket

PM to visit Phuket on Monday as island’s economy lies in tatters

Maya Taylor

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PM to visit Phuket on Monday as island’s economy lies in tatters | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Phuket People's Voice

PM Prayut Chan-o-cha is to arrive in Phuket on Monday, where he will meet with local business leaders and discuss proposals for reviving the southern island’s devastated tourism sector. It’s understood a representative of Phuket’s Old Town area is to put forward an idea for promoting the historic centre as a tourist destination.

Since borders were closed in late March, in an effort to protect the country from the Covid-19 pandemic, Phuket’s tourist revenue has plummeted to practically zero, with countless businesses shuttered and thousands of jobs lost.

In addition to hearing suggestions from local operators on how to revive tourism on the island, the PM will also listen to requests for additional help from central government. The much-discussed Phuket Model never materialised, despite being seen at one point as the pilot project on which a wider re-opening of borders would be based.

While hotel occupancy in the province has increased from a pitiful 13.4% in June, September’s rates were still woefully low, at just 30%. This is despite a stimulus package introduced by the government in an effort to boost domestic tourism.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand

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Tests show Samui woman did not contract virus at quarantine hotel

Maya Taylor

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Tests show Samui woman did not contract virus at quarantine hotel | The Thaiger
PHOTO: WHO/Ploy Phutpheng

Tests carried out by the Disease Control Department show that the woman who tested positive for Covid-19 after being discharged from quarantine and travelling to Koh Samui, did not become infected at the quarantine facility. Dr Sopon Iamsirithaworn says the results do not match those of 2 other guests who tested positive at the hotel in Samut Prakan, just outside Bangkok.

Tests show that the woman, who has dual Thai/French citizenship, contracted the infection 17 days earlier. However, Sopon says that while officials are still unsure as to where she became infected, the existing guidelines for quarantine facilities need to be reviewed.

“Though we haven’t found the source of her infection, we still have to revise our guidelines for alternative state quarantine sites and cut down the risk of spreading the virus.”

A national quarantine policy, currently at draft stage, sets out strict safety and hygiene standards for all quarantine facilities to adhere to. The guidelines cover everything from screening for suspected cases, data collection and reporting, as well as the provision of services and overall management of the venues. Health officials are also proposing cutting quarantine to 10 days and using movement tracing for an additional 4 days after guests are discharged.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand

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