Expert predicts drier rainy season starting July because of El Niño
Weather Alert: Expert Predicts Return of El Niño by July, Warns of Low Rainfall
BANGKOK — A prominent environmental academic has issued a weather outlook for 2026, warning that while the early year brings cooler temperatures, a shift toward the El Niño phenomenon is likely by mid-year, potentially disrupting the rainy season.
On January 2, 2026, Asst. Prof. Dr. Thon Thamrongnawasawat, a marine science lecturer at Kasetsart University, shared an analysis via Facebook based on the latest data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Citing NOAA’s updated models released just before the New Year, Dr. Thon broke down the forecast for Thailand
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January – February: The country remains under a “Weak La Niña.” The Southern region may experience slightly higher rainfall than usual, but not to extreme levels.
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March: Conditions are expected to shift to “Neutral.”
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June – July: The trend indicates a 50% chance of transitioning into El Niño.
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Dr. Thon noted that unlike the intense El Niño of 2023, which arrived early in the year, this cycle is expected to arrive later.
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The Good News Because the phenomenon arrives later, Thailand’s peak summer months (April–June) may not see the record-breaking “boiling” temperatures experienced in previous extreme years.
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The Bad News The El Niño effect will likely intensify during the rainy season (from July onwards). Dr. Thon warned that “anyone relying on rainfall needs to be cautious,” as precipitation levels could be significantly lower than average.
The academic added that the impact would be felt globally. Those traveling or living abroad, particularly in Japan, should prepare for a scorching summer in July and August, which could be even hotter than 2025.
Dr. Thon emphasized that while some models predict severe conditions, others remain moderate. As time progresses, the forecast data will become clearer and more accurate.
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