Doubts over Thai target of 8.2 million Chinese visitors in 2024

Analysts have expressed doubts over the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) ambitious target of attracting 8.2 million Chinese visitors next year. This comes as predictions for overall foreign arrivals next year have been downscaled, amidst concerns over a sluggish global economy.

Kasem Prunratanamala, who leads research at CGS-CIMB Securities in Thailand, stated that while the firm has kept its estimation of 27 million arrivals for this year, the prediction for next year has been reduced from 36 million to 32 million.

This is in spite of a visa exemption scheme for Chinese visitors, which has been in effect since September 25 this year and will continue until February 29 next year.

However, the average daily arrivals from China since last month have only been approximately 9,500, a noticeable decrease compared to the 2019 daily average of 30,123. To date, around 3 million Chinese visitors have visited Thailand this year, said Kasem, following a meeting with TAT Deputy Governor Nithee Seeprae.

“With the shooting incident at Siam Paragon in early October, we believe it is unlikely for Thailand to see a sharp rise in the number of Chinese tourists in the fourth quarter.”

Last month, Chinese visitors to Thailand numbered 285,000 which constituted 33% of the 852,000 arrivals recorded in the same period in 2019.

Domestic tourism

The TAT has attributed this decline in visitors from China to Beijing’s increased focus on boosting domestic tourism, said Kasem.

“Even though flight availability from China is still 40% below the pre-pandemic level, we do not think it is the main reason for the slow recovery of Chinese tourists.

“The TAT anticipates four million Chinese tourists this year and 8.2 million in 2024, which we believe is quite challenging.”

In addition to its goals for Chinese tourism, the TAT aims to attract 25 to 30 million foreign arrivals this year and 35 million next year. For domestic tourism, the TAT forecasts 160 million journeys this year and 200 million next year.

The TAT also anticipates total tourism revenue to increase from 2.38 trillion baht (approximately US$66 billion) this year to 3 trillion baht next year. This is a similar figure to 2019 when Thailand saw 40 million foreign visitors, reported Bangkok Post.

Meanwhile, Maybank Securities has suggested that Thailand’s slow tourism recovery could be bolstered by extending the government’s visa waiver programme to cover specific European countries. The investment banking division of Maybank noted in a research report,

“As European tourists are one of the highest-spending groups, a waiver would help offset lacklustre demand from China.”

As of mid-November, Thailand has welcomed 23.2 million visitors and Maybank projects this to reach 26 million by the end of the year.