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Chief ASEAN economist says protests not helping Thailand’s weak economy recover

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Chief ASEAN economist says protests not helping Thailand’s weak economy recover | The Thaiger
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Chief ASEAN economist of Nomura, Euben Paracuelles, says Thailand’s current protests are not helping Thailand’s weak economy recover. In fact, Pracuelles says Thailand’s economy is the weakest and slowest in the region, noting that it is in “pretty bad shape”. He further says that the last thing the kingdom needs is something to weaken its recovery and that the current demonstrations are doing just that.

“We know that it is very reliant on tourism and that sector has been decimated by the Covid-19 shock.”

“What we have seen in these kinds of political episodes in the past is, it’s a very big distraction for the government to actually execute on these fiscal plans.”

He added that the government’s plans to disburse cash handouts have fallen short of initial expectations at a time when Thailand needs “private consumption to stay afloat, to at least provide some buffer” for the economy.

Nomura is also predicting that the Bank of Thailand will cut its policy rates down to 0% from .5% in the near future to help aid the delicate economy.

Such political instability certainly hasn’t helped in recent months as last week’s rallies saw the government firing water cannons and tear gasafter protesters targeted the Royal Thai Police headquarters. Such a scene caught international attention, prompting the Human Rights Watch to issue a letter in response that clearly condemned such actions by the government. Despite the government taking, what some say, was a heavy-handed action against the generally peaceful protesters, minor demonstrators are vowing to keep participating despite police summoning 2 teenagers for violating the emergency decree.

The PM has also announced that the lese majeste law which prohibits anyone inside the kingdom from criticising the royal family, may be enforced after remaining dormant for more than 2 years. HM the King asked the PM to limit the use of the lese majeste laws in June this year.

SOURCE: Chiang Rai Times

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12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Jack

    November 22, 2020 at 1:12 pm

    Ok put some pressure on your guy to step down. The sooner he goes, the sooner Thailands protests stop. Don’t you know how this works.

    At this point, the protests simply will not end until your guy resigns. So quit blaming the protests, you and your guy knows what needs to happen.

    • Avatar

      Fabian

      November 22, 2020 at 1:25 pm

      Yeah, you wonder why he doesn’t say that the dino’s who want to stay in power are not helping an economic recovery, which in my humble opinion is a lore more accurate.

      It’s the Prayutsaurus Rex who screws the country.

      Maybe they are just good friends.

    • Avatar

      Issan John

      November 22, 2020 at 2:13 pm

      I think the headline suggesting that he’s the “Chief ASEAN Economist” is a bit deceptive, at best.

      He’s an economist at Nomura, an investment bank, not ASEAN.

      • Avatar

        Toby Andrews

        November 22, 2020 at 4:31 pm

        Still he is an economist, and the protests are weakening the economy.
        “weakest and slowest in the region” “pretty bad shape.”
        Yes Thailand is dying from mismanagement, so the protesters are making a difference.

    • Avatar

      BLM

      November 23, 2020 at 12:59 pm

      Lol….the thai economy has been the 2nd worst in ASEAN since the 2014 coup….and the PM stepping down will not stop the protests….the protests are a result of 88 years of corrupt ans incompetent governance with no regard for the people…. the dark ages must end

  2. Avatar

    Math

    November 22, 2020 at 2:03 pm

    They used the 1997 crisis to put Thaksin in power and now they are using the Covid-19 crisis to put Thanathorn in power.

    Of course the young student leaders know that their actions will worsen the country’s difficulties, but they are not fighting for Thailand but for their own future, as leaders in Thailand or as political refugees in the US, where they already have the assurance that they can go, as has been revealed, if their colorful revolutions fail.

    Or maybe some will go to Dubai, to meet up with their friends Thaksin and the heir to Red Bull.

    • Avatar

      Khunplastic

      November 22, 2020 at 5:40 pm

      Be a lot easier for square head to show up it los then the the other way round.

      Redbull boy is another matter.

    • Avatar

      Issan John

      November 22, 2020 at 6:21 pm

      Your maths is a little flawed, Math.

      The “1997 financial crisis” was in 1997. Thaksin was elected PM in 2001, four years and two PMs later.

      Thanathorn founded his party in 2018 and lost the vote for PM (due to the Senate ‘block’) in 2019; the “Covid-19 crisis” is a year later, this year, 2020.

      … and “of course the young student leaders know that their actions will worsen the country’s difficulties” in the short term, but being realistic the difference is probably minimal – after all, how many tourists are they putting off coming here who could actually come here at the moment anyway?

      • Avatar

        Math

        November 24, 2020 at 9:12 am

        The crisis of 1997 enriched Thaksin and Soros.

        Thaksin was able to gain importance and then become prime minister thanks to the crisis because few candidates were interested in power.

        Of course, Thanathorn appeared afterwards, they put their pawn and tried to take advantage of the crisis to put him in place.

        It’s a long-term fight, they used the same techniques in many countries.

        This is the worst time for Thailand, but it is the best time for the foreign forces who want to take control of the country and do not care about the difficulties of the Thai people.

  3. Avatar

    jesus monroe

    November 22, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    The PM’s favourite tuck me in bed mantra……..Where I go….ego

  4. Avatar

    Dreamon

    November 22, 2020 at 7:38 pm

    Yep, neither a Dictatorship

  5. Avatar

    Greg Chapman

    November 22, 2020 at 10:57 pm

    As a regular visitor to Thailand 3 times a year for over 30 years, I’m not in the least put off by the student demonstrations ..good luck to them.I have never felt threatened by ordinary Thais, I can’t say the same about the Thai authorities, especially Immigration, with their ridiculous and complicated and confusing rules. I wonder what will happen when the regulars quit Thailand for more welcoming destinations … how will Immigration manage when all those B15,000 backhanders dry up ?

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Tourism

4 years until tourism industry gets back to pre-pandemic levels – Finance Ministry

Caitlin Ashworth

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4 years until tourism industry gets back to pre-pandemic levels – Finance Ministry | The Thaiger

It could take 4 years for Thailand’s tourism industry to recover after being battered by the lack of travel due to the coronavirus pandemic, the government’s reaction and the economic fallout, according to the Finance Ministry.

While local and international experts project Thailand’s economy will continue to recover over the next 2 years, the tourism industry, which directly contributes 12-15% of the country’s GDP, is forecasted to take at least 4 years to get back to the pre-pandemic level, if ever. Last year, Thailand had nearly 40 million foreign tourist arrivals, generating 2 trillion baht.

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith says he expects 8 million foreign tourists to arrive in 2021, followed by 16 million in 2022, 32 million in 2023 and 40 million in 2024. But the projections are just broad speculation.

No foreign tourists entered the country between April and September this year. In October, 1,201 foreign tourists were issued Special Tourist Visas for 90 day stays that can be renewed twice, adding up to about 9 months in total. Under the current arrangements there will only be a trickle of tourists coming under the current regime including 14 day quarantine, at the tourist’s expense, and lots of paperwork and red tape.

IF Thailand does end up. with 8 million foreign tourist arrivals next year, and the cash subsidy scheme is extended, the country’s GDP is expected to expand by 4% to 4.5%, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

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Economists say new local Covid-19 cases could slow tourism recovery

Caitlin Ashworth

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Economists say new local Covid-19 cases could slow tourism recovery | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Nation Thailand

Some are concerned about a potential second coronavirus outbreak after 10 Thai women tested positive for Covid-19 after returning from Myanmar’s Tachileik district. Some travelled to Bangkok and Chiang Mai after returning.

A second wave of infections will stall the recovery of domestic tourism and Thailand’s overall economy that has been battered by the pandemic, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council, or NESDC.

Since some cases were reported in the tourism dependent provinces Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, the council is concerned that the recent infections could slow down domestic tourism, according to the council’s secretary general, Danucha Pichayanan. After the first cases were reported in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai earlier this week, many people who planned to visit the provinces cancelled their accommodation bookings, Danucha says.

“Containing the spread is a priority for the government… Effective controls for the second wave are crucial for the country’s overall economic recovery.”

When the pandemic started to affect the global economy in the first quarter of the year, GDP dropped by 2% year-on-year. GDP then plunged by 12.1% in the second quarter of the year, the biggest drop since the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1999. The economy improved in the third quarter with GDP contracting by 6.4% year-on-year.

With hopes that a Covid-19 vaccine will be widely available by mid-2021, NESDC predicts the economy will expand by 3.5% to 4.5%.

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SOURCE: Bangkok Post

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Cabinet approves extension, upgrade of stimulus measures, welfare payments

Maya Taylor

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Cabinet approves extension, upgrade of stimulus measures, welfare payments | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Thai PBS World

The government has given the green light to the extension and refinement of a number of economic stimulus schemes and welfare payments. 43.5 billion baht has been set aside to fund an extension of the current co-payment scheme and the welfare card program. It’s understood 22.5 billion baht will go to phase 2 of the co-payment scheme, with 21 billion earmarked for the welfare card program.

Danucha Pichayanan from the National Economic and Social Development Council says an additional 5 million people are expected to benefit from phase 2 of the co-payment scheme, which will run from January to March next year. There are currently over 890,000 small businesses registered with the scheme, in which the government subsidises 50% of the cost of food, drink, and other products, up to a maximum of 150 baht per person per day, capped at 3,000 baht per person for the duration of the campaign. From January, that maximum will be increased from 3,000 to 3,500 baht per person, meaning the 10 million people currently registered for the campaign will receive an additional 500 baht.

Additionally, the Centre for Economic Situation Administration has agreed to extend the 500 baht monthly payment to welfare cardholders on low incomes for a further 3 months from January.

Meanwhile, the domestic tourism stimulus scheme is set to be extended until April 30 next year and is getting a bit of an upgrade too. Yuthasak Supasorn from the Tourism Authority of Thailand says the maximum number of hotel nights subsidised under the scheme is being increased from 10 to 15. Air fare subsides are being increased from 2,000 to 3,000 baht, for passengers flying to Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Krabi, Songkhla, and Surat Thani. The scheme also provides subsidies for spa visits, and car and boat hire, as well as food.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

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