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Global aviation recovery could take 3 years – Survey




“Widespread recovery of the global airline industry could be up to three years away.”

That’s the consensus out of n industry poll conducted as part of FlightPlan: Charting a Course into the Future. 500 professionals around the world were asked questions about the likely recovery of the global aviation industry. Apart from the dire predictions of a slow recovery over the next three years, there was also a sense of optimism as the industry looked to data analytics, AI and IoT to drive the recovery.

• 60% of respondents expect a recovery between 18 months to three years

• 85% predict that domestic travel will recover quicker than international travel

• 70% expect point-to-point travel will bounce back quicker than hub and spoke routes, with low-cost carriers leading the way ahead of their more ‘cumbersome’ and top-heavy carrier cousins

• Only 7% believe governments have uniformly done enough to support the industry

• 57% said that “contactless catering” was an important issue during the recovery period

• 88% of respondents expected slower turnarounds between flights due to the “deep cleaning” now required, which could have a significant impact on flight schedules.

• 44% said they expect to see empty middle seats as a standard feature of the passenger journey in the coming months despite contrary guidance given by IATA back in May.

“Airlines will have to continue to make flight safety and hygiene a long-term and sustained priority.”

The Asia Pacific’s domestic aviation sector has been the most resilient and the fastest to show signs of recovery amid the Covid-19 crisis. Countries in the region account for 50% of the top 20 domestic aviation markets in July, according to travel data analytics provider Cirium. Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea were the only countries in the world to show growth in domestic air travel during July.

Thailand’s borders remain officially closed with only limited cargo and repatriation flights, along with a few scheduled international flights for passengers trying to return home. The Kingdom has extended it emergency decree another month (up to the end of August now), and the visa amnesty up to September 26. Reading between the lines, it would appear that Thailand won’t be re-opening its borders to international tourism for at least a few months.


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  1. Avatar

    rinky stingpiece

    Friday, July 24, 2020 at 2:57 am

    18 months… that’s a signal that the next two winters in Thailand are not going to happen… certainly not for 40,000,000 tourists. Maybe 4,000,000 is possible next year if procedures are streamlined and standardised to make some kind of holiday viable… for instance, they could make entire quarantine beach resorts packaged up with a flight deal, to get the same group of tourists from source to destination and back, without touching the sides, but that will rather suffocate the cultural tourism that is part of what takes people there, and people might find cheaper deals for the same kind of sunny beach holiday closer to home. It’s hard to see how many SME tourists businesses can survive that when domestic consumption is so constrained by household debt. The worry is what do all those spare people do with all that time and not much money?

  2. Avatar

    Toby Andrews

    Friday, August 14, 2020 at 11:23 pm

    The way Thailand is acting it will take two years for Thailand and most elsewhere it will take six months.
    When Thailand decides to open all Thailand’s tourist customers will have found other places to go for vacations.

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