NBTC dials in: Biometric crackdown rings alarm for SIM scammers
The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) is cracking down on unauthorised SIM cards and online scams with the introduction of stringent biometric authentication for SIM card registration. This move targets dodgy SIM dealers, who now face hefty penalties if caught flouting the rules.
These new measures are set to shake up the mobile subscriber landscape in Thailand, where over half of the population uses prepaid SIM cards that will now require registration.
Initially, experts predicted that by 2025, there would be 94 million mobile subscriptions. However, with the new requirements in place, that figure is expected to drop by 19% to 77.8 million. The revised forecast assumes that the mobile subscriber rate per 100 people will stabilise around 100% post-registration.
Currently, Thailand boasts a staggering mobile penetration rate of 140% but it’s anticipated to drop to 111% once the biometric SIM registration is in full swing, as people with multiple SIM cards may still find ways around the system.
The possibility of a contraction is ever-present, as Thailand navigates the uncertain waters of SIM registration, much like the 25% drop witnessed in the Philippines in 2024. Deadlines, legislative tweaks, and multi-SIM ownership all cloud the accuracy of these forecasts.
But fear not, the market is expected to bounce back, predicted to reach a penetration rate of 131% by 2034, translating to around 91.6 million subscribers. Other emerging markets have dabbled in multiple SIM registration too, suggesting further forecast adjustments might be on the cards.
The introduction of biometric SIM registration poses potential risks to market growth, as nations increasingly adopt these measures to thwart fraudsters.
While telecoms regulators applaud these mandates, operators find themselves burdened with increased costs to verify subscribers and keep in line with NBTC regulations.
This situation results in a temporary dent in profit margins, as the industry grapples with the new rules. Failure to comply, however, could lead to substantial fines for wayward mobile network operators.
This gripping analysis comes courtesy of BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company, and carries no affiliation with Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. The insights and stats shared are solely drawn from BMI and independent sources.
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