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Finance: Using monthly charts to analyze trends

Legacy Phuket Gazette

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Finance: Using monthly charts to analyze trends | The Thaiger

PHUKET: Monthly charts are among the first buy signals I look for when selecting stocks because they show bigger time frames where long term trends can be seen. As we enter the summer months, a short term pull back could still happen and this would be a perfectly normal price action.

Lately we haven’t yet seen any price action to suggest a pullback. For the longer term, we still have to lean toward the upside, assuming that the bullish trend of the previous months will continue.

Looking over several monthly charts for a variety of stocks, we are starting to see more stocks breaking into new highs.

Tech giant Apple (NAS DAQ: AAPL) got caught up in the overall choppy market trading over the past two years. Late last year, AAPL began breaking out to have about five months of solid gains that put shares at an all time high.

Online retail behemoth Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) recently had another strong monthly close at new all time highs and has steadily closed higher for the past couple of months.

Small cap building materials manufacturer Builders First Source (NASDAQ: BLDR) got clobbered in the wake of the financial crisis and is still not back up to pre-crisis highs. However, its monthly chart is starting to break out from a strong cup and handle base. This should also be considered a bullish sign for other housing related stocks.

Small cap online healthcare marketplace stock Care.com Inc (NYSE: CRCM) had Google Capital take a big position in it several months ago, triggering a big gain as other investors rushed in. The technical chart now shows a nice consolidation since 2014 while in March, shares moved to a two year high on huge volume – a very bullish sign.

Large cap oil and gas stock EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) is still breaking lower in its monthly charts for the past few months. However, the weekly charts show weeks where shares are ending higher. This is a bullish signal making the stock worth watching to see if its monthly closes can move higher.

Small cap biopharma stock Theravance Biopharma (NASDAQ: TBPH) has broken out from a bullish cup and handle formation to close above the ‘cup’ portion on its technical chart with shares also above its 2014 IPO debut level.

Large cap railroad stock Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) had broken out from its post financial crisis consolidation pattern and had a good run from the US$40-110 level before falling off. UNP has just had another big breakout and appears to be heading back up.

Mid cap global life sciences software stock Veeva Systems (NYSE: VEEV) recently hit an all time high on its monthly chart to close above its IPO price after consolidating sideways for around 2.5 years – a fairly bullish sign.

The latest S&P 500 chart also shows the index closing higher for five months in a row (or roughly since the end of the US elections). This has ended roughly two years of consolidation or sideways movement.

Don Freeman, BSME, is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Adviser with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket. He has over 20 years experience working with expatriates, specializing in portfolio management, US tax preparation, financial planning and UK pension transfers. Don can be reached at 089-970 5795 or freeman [email protected]

— Don Freeman



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Hermès opens its first store in Phuket at Central Floresta

The Thaiger & The Nation

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Hermès opens its first store in Phuket at Central Floresta | The Thaiger

Hermès has opened of its first store in Phuket at Central Floresta, the newly opened lifestyle shopping destination in the heart of the island, opposite Central Festival.

As Hermès’ first venture outside the Thai capital, the new Hermès Phuket store makes a significant statement of expansion and confidence in the market. The new address in this world-renowned island will allow the growing population of local residents, along with domestic and international tourists, to discover the abundant variety of Hermès métiers and savoir-faire.

Designed by the Parisian architecture agency RDAI, the elegant 172 m² retail space is located by the shopping centre’s main entrance and benefits from a double exposure with an exterior and an interior façade.

A bamboo claustra follows the line of the mall’s exterior glass, filtering the daylight that bathes the indoor space, and further illustrates Hermès’ high regard for local craftsmanship. The interior façade is composed of a refined lacquered metal, featuring a large window display, complemented by four recesses with illuminated silk scarves.

Upon entering the store, visitors are welcomed by the House’s ex-libris and signature Grecques lights, designed for Hermès in 1925. The store is decorated with natural and local materials – bamboo floors and claustra, cognac toned Cherrywood walls, toffee coloured silk and fibre fabrics – tastefully blending various elements of Thai culture and modern architecture. The soft colour palette evokes the sand and the sun in their various shades, providing a delightfully serene and convivial atmosphere.

The overall volume is divided into two main areas by the feminine silk grid facing the entrance. The first one, with the iconic Faubourg pattern mosaic floor, allows guests to explore the silk, fashion jewellery, fragrance, art of living, and equestrian departments.

Opposite the leather goods display, an intimate space invites guests to uncover the watch and jewellery collections. Further along, one can discover the women and men’s universes. A sand coloured carpet on the floor outlines the area dedicated to the shoe collections, enriched by a delicate custom-made bamboo light module as the ceiling centrepiece.

Hermès opens its first store in Phuket at Central Floresta | News by The Thaiger Hermès opens its first store in Phuket at Central Floresta | News by The Thaiger Hermès opens its first store in Phuket at Central Floresta | News by The Thaiger

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Thailand ‘slightly impacted’ from a no deal Brexit

The Thaiger

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Thailand ‘slightly impacted’ from a no deal Brexit | The Thaiger

The EU has agreed to postpone Brexit from next Friday and give UK PM Theresa May time to get her deal approved in Parliament.

The PM had hoped to persuade the EU to delay the March 29 Brexit date, set in law, to June 30. But the EU country leaders have offered her two dates…

  1. A delay until May 22 if MPs approve her withdrawal deal in next week’s vote.
  2. 2. A shorter delay until April 12 if they reject it. But the UK will have to set out its next steps – another extension or leaving without a deal.

But the EU says a further extension beyond April 12 is only possible if the UK agrees to hold EU elections on May 23.

As to how British lawmakers can sort things out in a few weeks after two years of debate remains to be seen.

But economists are warning Thailand to brace for some fallout from the UK exit from the EU because it is more likely to happen than not, just a matter of when.

First of all, no-deal Brexit means the UK will no longer be a part of the EU bloc and will have to revert to World Trade Organisation rules on trade. Made-in-UK goods will be subject to EU tariffs, like that of other non-EU nations. Meanwhile, the price of the EU-made merchandises in the UK may become more expensive as they will have to bear the cost of imported tariffs as well.

According to SCB Economic Intelligence Centre, a no-deal Brexit will impact the UK economy and, consequently, affect British purchasing power overseas. British demand for Thai exports, namely automobiles and parts, and processed chicken meat may reduce.

British expats will also have to face a worsening rate of exchange with the Thai baht, lessening the power of the British pound they bring into the Kingdom for living, retirement or holidays.

Nonetheless, the overall impact on Thai exports should not be significant because the Thai outbound shipment to the UK represents only 1.5 percent of total Thai exports, according to the the think tank of Siam Commercial Bank.

Brexit may also prompt Thailand and the EU to renegotiate some trade deals such as import quota to the EU. Thailand may have to renegotiate the export quota with the EU on processed chicken, as an example. And Thailand may also have to negotiate another chicken export deal with the UK separately after the UK separation from the EU.

Auramon Supthaweethum, Director-General of Department of Trade Negotiations, said Brexit could complicate the process of Thai-EU free trade negotiation, which is scheduled to resume in the second half of this year.

“At any rate, after the Thai general election, Thailand is set to continue to negotiate with the EU on the Thai-EU free trade deal regardless of the UK decision.”

On the bright side, Brexit may prompt the UK investors to pay more attention to potential markets beyond the EU border. At present, direct investment from the UK to Thailand is small, accounting for only 3.5 percent of the total foreign direct investment, according to SCB.

Kasikorn Research Centre note that in addition to Brexit, Thai investors should take into account the consequences of the EU and Japan’s Economic Partnership Agreement which came into force last month.

The EPA could affect the exports of Thai automobile which is part of the Japanese’ supply chains. The EPA will end tariffs of auto and parts between Japan and EU by 2026.

Kasikorn Bank’s think tank says, in light of Brexit, some Japanese automakers will likely relocate some of their car production from the UK to other EU countries to maintain the EU trade privileges. Nissan and Honda have already flagged this probability.

Thus, the destinations for Thai exported automobiles and parts, which are part of the supply chains of Japanese automakers, may also change in accordance with Japanese automakers’ revised business strategy.

While the actual impacts on trade and investment remain to be seen, Brexit has been chiefly attributed to the volatility of the British pound since the referendum in 2016.

The SCB Economic Intelligence Centre say the weaker British pound could dampen the sentiment of British arrivals. They note that UK holidaymakers are among the high spenders in Thailand with 77,600 baht per trip.

“At any rate, since the receipts from British travelers represent only 2.1 percent of the total, the impact on the Thai tourism industry will be insignificant.”

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Doubt over ‘majority support’ in survey about drilling near Si Thep historical park

The Thaiger

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Doubt over ‘majority support’ in survey about drilling near Si Thep historical park | The Thaiger

Locals are up in arms about results from a public hearing into oil drilling project near the Si Thep historical park in Phetchabun province (just north of Bangkok). They are expressing doubt and concern over results of a public hearing that appear to show support for the project.

Thai PBS reports that Mr. Prachuab Narkthien, chairman of the club of village headmen and kamnan in Si Thep district, says he doubted the credibility of the result, which shows 62.6 percent are supportive of the drilling project near the ancient temple.

Since most people in Phetchabun province, especially in Si Thep district, have opposed the project from the beginning, Mr. Prachuab said he wondered where the 62.6 percent figure had come from.

Oil drilling by ECO Orient Resources was put on hold due to strong opposition from the Fine Arts Department and the public for fear that vibrations caused by drilling may damage the fragile ancient ruins, which await recognition by UNESCO as a World Heritage site.

Mr. Prachuab said that the public hearing was unusual because only selected people were invited to attend and he was not invited, despite the fact that he represents the district’s cultural network. He went on to say that only officials at provincial and district levels support the project while the general public is against it.

The Fine Arts Department earlier proposed the creation of a buffer zone to project the ancient ruins, believed to be those of a city of some 80,000 people at its peak during the first millennium AD.

Doubt over 'majority support' in survey about drilling near Si Thep historical park | News by The Thaiger

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