Trump leads Harris by 2 points in recent survey
Trump's support grows among white voters and college graduates
Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in the presidential race, 50-48%, according to a new national survey. This is a shift from last month when Harris had a slight edge. In seven critical battleground states, Harris leads by 6 points, and they are tied at 49% among voters in closely contested counties. Trump’s lead stems from strong support in counties he won by over 10 points in 2020 (64-35%), compared to Harris in counties Biden won by over 10 points (58-39%).
This raises the question of whether a Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Historically, GOP candidates lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College in 2000 and 2016. Trump’s 2-point lead among likely voters is within the margin of error, identical to results among registered voters. Last month, Harris had a 2-point lead among both groups.
Trump’s support has increased among white voters, who now favour him by 10 points, up from 4 points last month. He is also performing well among voters aged 65 and over (49%) and college graduates (48%). Harris, on the other hand, has her lowest support among Black voters (67%), college graduates (49%), voters aged 65 and over (47%), and whites with a college degree (46%).
🚨 BOMBSHELL: 🇨🇦 Justin Trudeau admits to having “no evidentiary proof” to support allegations of 🇮🇳 India’s “involvement” in Nijjar killing👇 pic.twitter.com/N0dKiT4jl4
— Sputnik India (@Sputnik_India) October 16, 2024
Another poll, another 4 point swing in Trump’s direction. This may be the first poll for Fox where Trump has been ahead of Harris.
Trump leads Harris by 2 nationally in this poll. https://t.co/QXrXiCvQs5
— NOT Jim 🙂 (@JeRrE1776) October 16, 2024
The race remains tight, with Trump leading by 1 point in August, Harris up by 2 points in September, and now Trump with a 2-point edge. Democratic pollster Chris Anderson notes the subtle shift towards Trump, especially among college-educated voters, and emphasizes the importance of voter turnout.
The gender gap persists, with men backing Trump and women supporting Harris. Harris has 52% support from new voters and 20% from non-MAGA Republicans. She leads among independents, keeping the race close as both candidates have strong partisan support. More voters identify as Republican than Democrat, giving Trump an edge.
Harris has majority support among Hispanics (52%) and voters under 30 (54%), though this is lower than Biden’s 2020 support. Trump has improved on every issue since September, with 53% approving of his presidential performance, including 93% of Republicans, 74% of non-MAGA Republicans, and 45% of independents.
Biden’s approval rating is currently at 40%, matching previous lows. Only 43% approve of the government’s hurricane response. The economy remains the top issue, with 40% citing it as the most important factor in their voting decision. Other issues like immigration and abortion are less prioritized.
Seventy percent view the economy negatively, with only 30% rating it positively, up from 17% in 2022. Forty-four percent say they are financially falling behind, worse than three years ago. Thirteen percent feel they are getting ahead, while 43% are holding steady.
Trump is seen as stronger on the economy (+8), immigration (+15), crime (+8), and guns (+6). With the ongoing Middle East conflict, he is favoured by 13 points on Israel and the war. Harris is trusted more on abortion (+14), climate change (+12), and health care (+8). They are about even on taxes, Supreme Court nominations, and election integrity.
Polling shows Trump is perceived as a stronger leader (55% vs. 47% for Harris) and more “up to the job” of president (53% vs. 50%). Harris is seen as more mentally sound (54% vs. 52% for Trump). Harris has lost ground on key characteristics like helping the middle class, fighting for personal rights, and freedoms.
The election is more about Trump than Harris, with most Trump supporters voting for him rather than against Harris. Among Harris’s supporters, two-thirds vote for her, while one-third vote against Trump. In May, nearly half of Biden supporters were voting mainly against Trump. Among Trump supporters, 80% are voting for him rather than against Harris (18%).
Motivations for voting vary, with Harris supporters driven by dislike of Trump, protecting democracy, and abortion. Trump’s supporters are motivated by the economy and immigration. Men are driven by dislike of the other candidate, the economy, and candidate traits, while for women, the economy and abortion are top motivators.
The survey was conducted from October 11-14, 2024, with 1,110 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample and the likely voter subsample is ±3 percentage points. Sampling error is higher for subgroups, and results can be influenced by question wording and order. Weights are applied to ensure demographic representation, and likely voters are identified based on various factors including past voting history and demographic characteristics.
What Other Media Are Saying
- TIME reports that new polls show Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, with a significant shift in Arizona’s polls since August.(read more)
- Fox News poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Donald Trump by two percentage points, with Harris gaining support from independents and Hispanics.(read more)
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some common questions asked about this news
Who’s leading in the presidential race between Trump and Harris?
Trump leads Harris 50-48% according to a new national survey.
How are Trump and Harris performing in battleground states?
Harris leads by 6 points in critical battleground states.
What is the gender gap in support for Trump and Harris?
Men back Trump, while women support Harris.
Which issues do voters prioritize in this election?
The economy is the top issue, with 40% citing it as the most important factor.
How do voters view the economy?
Seventy percent view the economy negatively, while 30% rate it positively.
