Business
Finance: Symmetrical triangle of gold

PHUKET: Gold is such a different asset class that it can really be very confusing thinking about it. As I write, gold is forming a classic technical trading pattern known as a symmetrical triangle, which makes it an interesting time to talk about it.
These consolidation patterns usually result in a big move one way or the other, but let me be clear that even a technical breakout to the upside wouldn’t necessarily mean this is a good time to invest. It could simply be a retracement before another big decline.
What has made gold potentially interesting again is that with the fall of the Chinese market and delay in US interest rates being raised by the Fed, there is a potential scenario that could be good for gold if things in the world economy take a turn for the worse. This is a big ‘if’ of course, and there is still plenty of downside risk for the precious metal.
As Warren Buffet likes to point out, gold is a useless shiny rock that produces no cash-flow and thus cannot be valued using traditional cash-flow analysis. Its value is derived from perception, which makes it a lot of fun to discuss, but not so much fun to predict.
However, a look back at past price action can give us a guide to the types of events that typically influence our perception of the metal and thus drives the demand, which in turn affects the price direction. Stock markets and the gold price have both crashed simultaneously before, so in terms of gold being a pure safe haven, you cannot be assured.
However, it has done very well before periods of inflation, which is most directly caused by money printing. If the world economy does head for the gutters, with interest rates so low, printing is pretty much the only tool left for major central banks.
The efficient markets theory states that current market expectations are generally built into the price of assets, and this is the only part of that theory that I tend to agree with. Market participants had been mainly expecting a gradual increase in interest rates, or a tightening of the money supply, which is generally not good for gold. However, this is based on the assumption that a recession is not imminent, but rather a continuation of the recovery. This is where things have the potential to get interesting for gold.
If the recent sell-off in China is an indicator of what’s in store for the global economy, there could be some printing coming that is not yet expected. Economic numbers can go from mediocre to bad to horrible very quickly and become a self-fulfilling prophesy as everyone throughout the supply chain begins to slow down their activity in anticipation of worse conditions and the wealth effect causes households to spend less. This would be the perfect storm that could lead to a shiny new day for gold.
Of course there are a lot of assumptions underlying this possibility, but if things begin to look worse, it might be a good idea to begin watching gold again and seeing how it reacts. If a major crash does come, easing into gold may not be a bad bet with a small portion of a portfolio. I surely wouldn’t be buying in now, but I will be watching it with increased interest if things get worse.
David Mayes MBA resides in Phuket and provides wealth management services to expatriates around the globe, focusing on UK pension transfers. He can be reached at david.m@faramond.com or 085-335-8573. Faramond UK is regulated by the FCA and provides advice on pensions and taxation.
— David Mayes
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Business
Governments & old media versus social media – who will win? | VIDEO

We look at the recent changes made by the Australian and Indian governments to except control over the world’s biggest social media platforms. India has issued strict new rules for Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms just weeks after the Indian government attempted to pressure Twitter to take down social media accounts it deemed, well, anti social. There is now an open battle between the rise of social media platforms and the governments and ‘old’ media that have been able to maintain a certain level of control over the ‘message’ for the last century. Who will win?
The rules require any social media company to create three roles within India… a “compliance officer” who ensures they follow local laws; a “grievance officer” who addresses complaints from Indian social media users; and a “contact person” who can actually be contacted by lawyers and other aggrieved Indian parties… 24/7.
The democratisation of the news model, with social media as its catalyst, will continue to baffle traditional media and governments who used to enjoy a level of control over what stories get told. The battles of Google and Facebook, with the governments of India and Australia will be followed in plenty of other countries as well.
At the root of all discussions will be the difference between what governments THINK social media is all about and the reality about how quickly the media landscape has changed. You’ll get to read about it first, on a social media platform… probably on the screen you’re watching this news story right now.
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Business
The social media giants in battle with ‘old’ media and world governments | VIDEO

“The rules signal greater willingness by countries around the world to rein in big tech firms such as Google, Facebook and Twitter that the governments fear have become too powerful with little accountability.”
India has issued strict new rules for Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms just weeks after the Indian government attempted to pressure Twitter to take down social media accounts it deemed, well, anti social.
The rules require any social media company to create three roles within India… a “compliance officer” who ensures they follow local laws; a “grievance officer” who addresses complaints from Indian social media users; and a “contact person” who can actually be contacted by lawyers and other aggrieved Indian parties… 24/7.
The companies are also being made to publish a compliance report each month with details about how many complaints they’ve received and the action they took.
They’ll also be required to remove ‘some’ types of content including “full or partial nudity,” any “sexual act” or “impersonations including morphed images”
The democratisation of the news model, with social media as its catalyst, will continue to baffle traditional media and governments who used to enjoy a level of control over what stories get told.
The battles of Google and Facebook, with the governments of India and Australia will be followed in plenty of other countries as well.
At the root of all discussions will be the difference between what governments THINK social media is all about and the reality about how quickly the media landscape has changed. You’ll get to read about it first, on a social media platform… probably on the screen you’re watching this news story right now.
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Never miss out on future posts by following The Thaiger.
Business
Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO

When the airlines, in particular, were asking the government to put their hands in their pockets for some relief funding in August last year, it was genuinely thought that international tourists would be coming back for the high season in December and January. At the very least local tourists and expats would head back to the skies over the traditional holiday break. And surely the Chinese would be back for Chinese New Year?
As we know now, none of that happened. A resurge in cases started just south of Bangkok on December 20 last year, just before Christmas, kicking off another round of restrictions, pretty much killing off any possibility of a high season ‘bump’ for the tourist industry. Airlines slashed flights from their schedule, and hotels, which had dusted off their reception desks for the surge of tourists, shut their doors again.
Domestically, the hotel business saw 6 million room nights in the government’s latest stimulus campaign fully redeemed. But the air ticket quota of 2 million seats still has over 1.3 million seats unused. Local tourists mostly skipped flights and opted for destinations within driving distance of their homes.
As for international tourism… well that still seems months or years away, even now.
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