The uphill battle facing Chad’s new transition council

Earlier this week, Chad officially swore in its interim parliament, the so-called National Transition Council (CNT).

Chad’s military junta —which emerged after the death of longtime ruler Idriss Deby Itno — named the 93-member assembly. The CNT effectively replaces the former national assembly which existed under Deby’s regime. For now, Chad is ruled by a military junta.

Deby, who was killed under unclear circumstances in April during military battles with the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) rebel group, was succeeded by his 39-year-old son Mahamat Deby, a general in the Chadian army.

Created to prepare Chad for civilian rule

At first glance, there are members making up the CNT that are relatively unknown in Chadian politics, while some have standing.

Among the known figures are former president of the national assembly and current speaker, Haroun Kabadi, and former prime minister, Kassire Coumakoye.

Figures known to have opposed ex-leader Idriss Deby include Ngarledji Yorongar and Felix Romadoumngar.

For his part, Ramoumngar was reassured, telling DW: “The CNT will have independence. Because when it comes to voting on texts, no one will come with arms and chains to ask us to vote on this or that text. We are not going to vote on a Constitution that will simply be applied in the National Transitional Council.”

Former deputy, Beral Mbaikoubou, said the CNT’s work would be more transparent, and would prepare Chad for a return to civilian rule.

“The strength of our institutions has been undermined for several years because the powers were all concentrated in the hands of a single individual [late ruler Idriss Deby]. Therefore, all these texts must be groomed and especially the fundamental law, the Constitution of the Republic, must be rewritten,” he told DW.

Problematic CNT makeup

However, critics have pointed out that it took the regime five months to name the interim parliament, for a mandate of 18 months. In the meantime, there has been no sign of movement on the “national dialogue”.

“The delay in setting up the CNT will have an impact on the declared timetable. It will be impossible to meet the 18-month deadline,” said Chadian political analyst, Ousmane Houzibe.

Criticism has also been launched at the makeup of the CNT itself: it consists of at least 30% from the old National Assembly, 30% women and 30% young people.

But no one from the opposition alliance, Wakit Tama, which campaigns for a return to civilian rule, has been included in the CNT.

“The CNT is an echo chamber. There won’t be any change,” said Yaya Dillo, a veteran Socialist activist.

“It will be no different from the old National Assembly, and that skews the much-expected dialogue,” said Max Loalngar, Wakit Tama’s spokesman and head of the Chadian League of Human Rights.

Dr. Helga Dickow from the Germany-based Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institut, a specialist on Chad, explained: “The question is will some of the members who are in there, will they really stay in the parliament? At the moment, we have haven’t got a clue if this parliament has got any influence at all.”

‘Toothless tigers?’

General Mahamat Deby, who has the backing of former colonial power France, has not ruled out an extension of military rule if conditions for restoring civilian rule are not met.

Even while under civilian rule, Chad’s previous regime under the Idriss Deby has been described as authoritarian and intolerant of dissent.

Skirmishes and armed fights between forces loyal to Deby and FACT fighters threatened to throw Chad into turmoil earlier this year. But the Wakit Tama group wants a swift return to a civilian- led government.

“Some quite heavyweight members of Wakit Tama said they would join the CNT [if invited],” Dickow added, pointing out that former opposition party members are involved, including outspoken ones. But Dickow fears their presence there is merely something the junta can show off with to the international observers.

“I would say they are toothless tigers in the new government,” Dickow explained.

Chad’s military has been a vital component of the G5 Sahel coalition built to fight Islamist terrorism in the Sahel. And while Dickow believes neighboring states like Niger and Nigeria are not interested in seeing Chad collapse, the younger Deby still must build up relations with neighboring and regional leaders, despite being groomed for this role by his father.

“It certainly is a weaker regime, because the younger Deby now hasn’t got all the power and international relations his father had,” she said.