Stormy skies ahead: TMD forecast predicts May rainy season start

Thailand’s rainy season is anticipated to start the last week of May this year, according to the latest forecast by the Meteorological Department of Thailand (TMD). The announcement came with a cautious note that initial rains will be scarce, improving as the season progresses into June and July. Despite the slow start, the TMD remains hopeful that the overall rainfall will make a splash, surpassing last year’s figures.

Kanrawee Sitticheewaphak, Director-General of the TMD, shared insights into the forecast for the 2024 rainy season during an interview on the program Around the Corner with Meteorology, focusing on the Rainy Season Forecast for 2024.

The preliminary assessment points to the fourth week of May as the likely start of the season. However, this prediction hinges on the shift of wind direction, a determining factor yet to be confirmed, which will specify the exact onset date.

Despite entering the rainy season, May is expected to bring limited rainfall. The TMD seeks to clarify to the public that the declaration of the rainy season is based on meteorological criteria, specifically the shift to southwest monsoon winds covering the country and an upper-level wind direction change.

The TMD also projects severe summer storms in the next seven days, with temperatures soaring up to 44 degrees Celsius.

The public may question why, despite the announcement, rains have not started. It is essential to understand that while the seasonal conditions are set, rainfall in May will remain minimal.

The trend indicates an improvement in precipitation from June and July, continuing until the end of the rainy season around October 2024. The overall outlook suggests a more favourable rainfall compared to the previous year, which saw heavy rains towards the end of the season while the beginning and mid-season experienced a significant drought.

Nevertheless, the distribution of rainfall will not be uniform across all areas, with some regions receiving abundant rain and others experiencing lesser amounts, reported KhaoSod.

This forecast is crucial for farmers and those in the agricultural sector, who rely heavily on seasonal rains for crop cultivation. It also serves as a warning for urban areas that may be prone to flooding, allowing local governments and residents to prepare accordingly.

As Thailand braces for the forthcoming rainy season, the TMD remains vigilant, monitoring weather patterns and providing updates.