Abhisit predicts Paetongtarn’s govt term to last, despite challenges

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s government is expected to complete the rest of its three-year term, as no coalition parties seem prepared for an early General Election, according to former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who also noted that these parties are still striving to demonstrate to their voters that they merit re-election.

However, he pointed out that the coalition’s weak point is the diminishing public confidence in the Pheu Thai Party-led government, which could worsen with any new negative developments, including misconduct, potentially leading to a full-blown crisis.

When questioned about the possibility of Paetongtarn being ousted in a military coup, similar to her father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck, Abhisit stated that her being the third Shinawatra to lead the government might not justify a coup but her leadership approach could.

“None of us wants to see that problem [of a government being ousted in a coup] again… So, if this government could resolve the country’s problems in a morally right way, all sides should be happy.”

Despite his long-standing rivalry with the Pheu Thai Party, Abhisit admitted that the party had certain successes that should have been incorporated into its core policies for further development.

“It’s a shame that [Pheu Thai members] failed to build on their previous achievements to drive their party forward… Worse still, they still couldn’t even shake off the [Shinawatra] influence.”

Repeating past mistakes

Although Thaksin’s influence on the Pheu Thai-led government might boost confidence among his supporters, Abhisit recognises that there is also the risk of repeating past mistakes which previously led to his downfall.

“So, if Thaksin hasn’t learnt from his past mistakes at all, there is the risk that history will repeat itself.”

Thawisan Lonanurak, an independent academic and former secretary-general of the Northeast Chamber of Commerce, highlighted key challenges facing the country’s 31st prime minister.

The scrutiny of the 36 new Cabinet ministers is anticipated to take longer than Pheu Thai and Paetongtarn expect. If even one minister is later deemed ineligible, it could cast uncertainty over the new PM’s fate.

Former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed from office by a Constitutional Court ruling, which found him guilty of a serious ethics violation after appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a PM’s Office minister.

Thawisan emphasised that the Council of State and the Secretariat of the Cabinet must exercise extra caution this time.

Cabinet ministers

The overall quality of the prospective Cabinet ministers was also called into question. Thawisan claimed that appointments were based on party quotas rather than the suitability of the candidates.

“An academic is made agriculture and cooperatives minister, while a policeman is picked to oversee education administration, which is just wrong and makes people feel hopeless.”

Thawisan also criticised the decision to allow a faction within a political party to join the new coalition against the party’s resolution, warning that it could weaken the party as an institution. He predicted that in the future, more factions would follow suit, negotiating with MPs from other parties to secure Cabinet seats, disregarding their party’s resolutions.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, stated that the new government’s performance would be crucial in determining whether the coalition can complete its term and Pheu Thai’s chances in the next national election.

“If the country’s economy isn’t improving at all by the end of this year, the new government could be short-lived.”

General Prawit Wongsuwon, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party, which was excluded from the new government, is not expected to pose an immediate threat. However, Stithorn warned that if the Paetongtarn administration fails to improve its performance, the PM might face a series of challenges that could jeopardise her career, with Prawit potentially turning the tables on her, reported Bangkok Post.