German election: Which chancellor hopeful does the EU want?

EU heads of government haven’t made any official statements about the upcoming German election. But think tanks and insiders have speculated which chancellor candidate each country might prefer.

In the running are Angela Merkel’s current finance minister, Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD); Merkel’s favorite, Armin Laschet, from her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU); and Annalena Baerbock, the Green Party’s anti-Merkel candidate.

None of these three hopefuls has given much airtime to European politics in their campaigns or TV debates. For the EU, their plans for if they came to power remain hazy.

France and Germany need each other

After the German election, coalition talks could take weeks or even months. Until these are finalized, French President Emmanuel Macron will undoubtedly be the most powerful politician in the EU.

France will take up the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of 2022, and in April, Macron will be up for reelection.

Soon-to-be former Chancellor Merkel frequently left Macron hanging with his grand visions for Europe, such as plans for expanding its institutions or loosening fiscal policy. Their relationship only recently took a turn when EU coronavirus debts forced them to work hand in hand.

If Scholz becomes chancellor it might be easier for Macron to convince him to spend money together. After all, Scholz prides himself in being the actual inventor of the loan-based pandemic recovery fund. He also agrees with Macron on the necessity of European “sovereignty” when it comes to defense, industrial policy and climate protection.

The same can be said for Laschet. Like Scholz, the Christian Democrat visited the Elysee Palace during his campaign and presented himself as a mixture of Macron and Merkel. As someone from Aachen, a city in the most western part of Germany, he has always been closer to Paris than to Berlin, Laschet said.

On Tuesday, France’s European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune shared an adage that will always be relevant for Franco-German relations: “In Europe, you’re never strong alone … We can’t do without Germany and Germany can’t do without us.”

Meaning: Regardless of who becomes chancellor, Paris and Berlin will continue to work together.

The Greens’ Baerbock didn’t travel to Paris because “the Elysee is not a place to campaign,” she said. Some speculate she was never invited.

Stance on Poland might get harsher

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki might lament that the Merkel era is coming to an end, as it could signify a tougher stance from Berlin on the rule of law in Poland. Morawiecki, a member of the ruling nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS), is stuck in a constant dispute with the European Commission and the European Court of Justice because judicial reforms in Poland go against European law.

Tomasz Krawczyk, a philosopher and lobbyist who used to advise Morawecki, told DW that Germany’s new government won’t be as considerate as Merkel’s, regardless of the party in power. Merkel has been even-tempered and understanding with Poland, according to Krawcyk. The EU Commission might soon have a harsher ally in Berlin.

Laschet visited Poland during his campaign and vaguely mentioned “practical solutions” in the rule of law dispute. Baerbock is sure to follow the tough stance her Green colleagues in the European Parliament have taken against Poland’s increasingly anti-LGBTQ politics.

But Baerbock and Morawiecki see eye to eye on a different matter. She is against the German-Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, which Poland also rejects. Meanwhile, Laschet wants it to go into operation, whereas Schulz has talked about finishing construction on the project but “not really needing it.”

The hopeful six

The heads of state in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Malta, Spain and Portugal would rejoice if the SPD’s Scholz replaced the Christian Democrats, who have governed Germany for 16 years. It would mark a massive shift for Europe’s social democrats — who are slowly recovering after being under enormous pressure for the past decade.

Conversely, Europe’s conservative heads of state would regret it if the bloc’s largest country were no longer run by the center-right CDU.

What do Europeans think?

According to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a majority of respondents loved EU crisis manager Merkel because of her reliability. They also expect the next government to be dependable and have a cautious approach to fiscal policy.

But most participants see Merkel’s exit as the end of Germany’s “Golden Age.”

What’s the expert opinion?

No matter who is elected, Germany will be continue to be the largest, most economically potent and most influential member state in the EU. And as Janis Emmanouilidis, director of the European Policy Center, told DW, there probably won’t be any dramatic breaks in German EU policy.

“It would be nice if there were an indication as to which direction Europe might move in the future. Orientation would be desirable,” he said. “However, I am not very confident that is something the new government in Berlin will provide.”

Meanwhile, German EU officials are betting on pragmatic composure, according to diplomats who wish to remain anonymous. First, it will be business as usual, regardless of who wins the election, as all major decisions will be postponed until the new people have learned the ropes. Only then, they say, will we know where Germany is headed.

This article has been translated from German