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40,000 cases a day could happen by September, says projection

Jack Arthur



PHOTO: J.G's collection

Earlier this month, research by a professor from Mahidol University said worst-case scenario, Thailand could see 32,000 cases a day in a couple of months’ time. Now, according to a projection from the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand could see over 40,000 cases and 500 deaths per day if restrictions are not stringently followed/enforced and all inhabitants give their full cooperation.

The projection says the 40,000 cases could be seen by September. The prodigious figure comes from a “Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovery compartmental mathematical model”.

Dr Rungruang Kitpati, who is the advisor and spokesperson for the Ministry, referenced the model and said the current spike in infections and fatalities will only abate if everyone provides their total cooperation and measures are strictly enforced. However, the doctor cautions that it will take more than 2 to 4 weeks for the cases/death toll to slow down.

The doctor adds that deaths can be avoided and fewer people will become infected if strict measures are instituted and strictly enforced, in conjunction with sped-up Covid screening and mass vaccinations.

Dr Rungruang says the country needs to be especially careful now that other countries are also reporting Covid surges. Dr Rungruang says 61.67% of the general population of Bangkok has already been vaccinated, and 70% of the elderly population has been vaccinated. The doctor did not state whether those estimates meant the people were fully vaccinated or had just received 1 dose.

Thailand reported 18,912 new infections today. This week, it was reported that the border between Myanmar and Thailand along Kanchanaburi is closing; Koh Samui’s reopening plans were thrown into question as its cases rise; domestic travel to Phuket has been all but squashed; Cambodia announced it is planning to lockdown 8 provinces that border Thailand; and sleeper trains in Bangkok are set to become Covid isolation centres.



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Jack is from the USA, has a B.A. in English, and writes on a variety of topics. He lives in Thailand.

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