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Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Worst case scenario? 32,000 cases a day, says research



PHOTO: Alex Berger/Flickr

The CCSA, referencing research by a professor from Mahidol University, says it’s possible, in a worst-case scenario, that Covid infections could hit 32,000 cases a day in 3 months.

Dr Nuanchan Singkran’s research uses data as current as of July 17. It posits that if the handling of the situation is not improved, the daily infection rate could hit about 31,977 in the 4th quarter of this year. Best case scenario? 9,018 to 12,605 cases a day. The predicted average sits around 10,000 to 24,000 cases a day.

In this worst-case scenario, the infections would climb up to 22,000 cases a day in August and September. However, CCSA spokesperson Dr Taweesin Visanuyothin says if the vaccination rate goes “according to plan” the cases would only be 10,000 to 15,000 cases a day, worst-case scenario.

Dr Taweesin urges all residents of Thailand to cooperate with the new CCSA measures that take effect today. The doctor emphasised the staying at home measure. Dr Taweesin adds that the measures are meant to “limit travel and commutes”. He empathised with the inconveniences that may arise because of this measure but asked people to please stay at home unless it is necessary to go out.

Yesterday, the Thaiger wrote how stricter measures and a lockdown may be coming if the situation doesn’t improve in 2 months. Which, fits into the worst-case scenario timeline.

Thailand’s daily infections have topped 11,000 cases a day for the last 3 days.



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Jack is from the USA, has a B.A. in English, and writes on a variety of topics. He lives in Thailand.

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