Thailand’s exports predicted to see slight rise in 2024

The Thai National Shippers’ Council anticipates a slight upturn in Thailand’s exports, predicting an increase of 1%-2% for 2024, as per today’s disclosure. This estimate aligns with a prior forecast, underscoring the critical role exports play in the economic health of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. However, the current global demand climate has resulted in sluggish trade in recent times.

Chaichan Chareonsuk, chair of the council, disclosed during a briefing that in 2024, (export) growth will become more difficult as major markets are still weak.

“We need to find new markets.”

This indicates the challenges facing the export sector amidst weak demand from major markets.

The year-on-year growth for customs-based exports in November was a lower-than-expected 4.9%, reflecting a 1.5% contraction for the first 11 months of 2023. The council’s projections for 2023 remained unchanged, with an expected 1% decline in exports, reported Bangkok Post.

The government, to stimulate the economy, has instigated several measures. These include visa exemptions for Chinese tourists, farmer debt suspensions, a minimum wage increase, and a significant 500 billion baht (US$14.3 billion) handout scheme.

In related news, Thailand’s rice exports are poised for a substantial 15% decline this year, confronting challenges on multiple fronts.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, anticipated a dip in demand from Indonesia, last year’s top buyer, post-presidential election. The volatility of the Thai baht further complicated matters, putting Thailand at a disadvantage against rival Vietnam.

Despite last year’s record-high rice shipments of 8.8 million tonnes, Indonesia’s expected slowdown and Vietnam’s competitive pricing due to a promising new crop could impact Thailand’s market share.

While this was happening, concerns about the global supply as a result of India’s export restrictions and unfavourable weather conditions drove Thai white rice prices to a 15-year high in December. Additionally, the purity of Thai rice strains is at risk due to the influx of foreign varieties, warned Agriculture Minister Thammanat Prompow.