Thailand’s CPI sees sixth consecutive monthly decrease

Picture courtesy of Chris Neely, Thailand-Secrets

The consumer price index (CPI) in Thailand has seen a decrease for the sixth consecutive month as of March, as reported by the country’s Commerce Ministry. This marks the 11th month in a row that the CPI has fallen outside the target range set by the central bank, which is between 1% and 3%.

March’s CPI dropped by 0.47% compared to the previous year, a more significant decrease than the 0.40% forecast drop predicted in a poll by Reuters. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director of Trade Policy and Strategy Office, explained in a press conference that the decline can be attributed to government energy subsidies, reduced food prices, and consumer goods.

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Looking ahead to the second quarter, Poonpong suggests that inflation rates are likely to surpass those of the first quarter due to rising global oil prices and a weakening baht.

The core CPI for March, which does not take into account the typically fluctuating food and energy prices, saw a year-on-year increase of 0.37%. This is slightly less than the predicted 0.40% increase forecast in the Reuters poll.

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Lastly, the ministry has revised its inflation forecast for 2024. The prediction now stands at 0.00%-1.00%, in contrast to the previous forecast of -0.30% to +1.7%, reported Bangkok Post.

In related news, the Business Development Department of the Commerce Ministry foresees a positive trend in new business registrations for the year. The projection rides on the anticipated recovery of the tourism sector, thriving e-commerce, and the burgeoning electric vehicles (EV) market.

In the first couple of months of 2024, new business registrations have seen a 1.57% increase, reaching a total of 17,270. The cumulative registered capital has also surged by 14.5%, amounting to 46 billion baht (US$1.3 billion), stated Auramon Supthaweethum, the director-general of the department. The leading categories for these new registrations were general construction, real estate, and restaurants.

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The director-general attributed the uptick to several factors. The economy is on the rebound, tourism-related businesses are resuming operations post-pandemic, private consumption and exports are expanding, and significant public infrastructure projects are underway in alignment with the government’s bio-, circular, and green economic model.

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Alex Morgan

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