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Ten reasons why the market will head higher

Legacy Phuket Gazette

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PHUKET: US and global markets continue to hold in a tight 2-3 month range near new highs after breaking out of a long 1.5 year consolidation just after Brexit. This is occurring despite all the pessimism out there surrounding the US elections, the Fed, terrorism, Brexit fallout, Deutsche Bank troubles and other concerns.

I have ten reasons to believe the market will continue to head higher until the end of the year.

1. Historically speaking, between May and October, the S&P 500 has rallied in 19 of the last 22 election years or 86 per cent of the time for an average gain of 6.2 per cent. Keep in mind that these results are skewed by significant volatility in a few election years (like 2008). As of early October, leading stocks and market indices are higher and continue to go up.

2. The price of oil has stabilized after spending the last few years plunging. This is not only good for energy stocks, but also for large-scale consumers of energy (airlines, utility companies) as they now have predictability.

3. Fundamentals and earnings have been coming in fine, but not particularly great. Then again, they have not been coming in all that great for several years now – meaning that nothing has really changed all that much. But expectations are low and now we see Netflix and Microsoft beating earnings estimates and moving higher 25 per cent and 5 per cent after release of earnings.

4. Index technical charts are generally looking good as they are either consolidating or already breaking out.

5. October-November tends to be the start of the strong seasonality period, which usually lasts until April. Investors and fund managers will also begin their end of the year ‘window dressing’ of returns either for tax or performance purposes.

6. We need semiconductors to lead and the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ : SOXX) has been doing that in recent months – something that has escaped most market pundits who only focus on negativity. Technology index (QQQ) is at a higher level than the 2000 technology top. This is a positive sign and I will be writing more on that in my upcoming next article.

7. The iShares North American Tech-Software ETF (NYSEARCA: IGV) and the First Trust DJ Internet Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA: FDN) are also strongly melting upward.

8. The iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSEARCA: IYT) is showing a huge bottoming formation which indicates that the overall economy is poised to get better.

9. Despite media reports that Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) is imploding or may need a bailout, the technical chart for the iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA: EWG) actually looks similar to that of IYT and could also be poised to break out (best case scenario) or rollover (worst case scenario).

10. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEA-RCA: VTI) is not back above its previous all time high and did experience a minor throwback in September, but it has also held up. VTI could still experience some short-term fluctuations and even another breakdown before ultimately ending the year higher.

Now imagine the worst case scenario, such as another high-profile terrorist attack somewhere, or Deutsche Bank implodes or something else happens that triggers a recession. By looking at the current technical charts, we have a pretty good idea of just where the market will head, that is, basically back down to recent lows or bottoms on the charts. Of course, this is baring a major ‘black swan’ type event such as 9/11 or a complete financial system meltdown such as in 2008.

On the other hand – in the best case scenario – the entire market beyond semiconductors, software and Internet stocks could continue to go upward; especially once the uncertainty surrounding the US election is out of the way.

My plan as we enter the 4th quarter is to hold leading and emerging leadership stocks and give them room to grow to the upside. Right now, the market direction appears bullish. But should the market transition back down again or if a bear market were to begin, the price action will warn us to get out of stocks and back into cash.

Don Freeman, BSME, is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket. He has over 15 years experience working with expatriates, specializing in portfolio management, US tax preparation, financial planning and UK pension transfers. Call for a free portfolio review. Don can be reached at 089-970 5795 or email him on freemancapital@gmail.com

— Don Freeman

 

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Archiving articles from the Phuket Gazette circa 1998 - 2017. View the Phuket Gazette online archive and Digital Gazette PDF Prints.

Business

Thailand jumps on the electric bandwagon, aims to become EV production hub

Maya Taylor

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PHOTO: Flickr / JCT 600

The Thai government has ambitious plans to turn the Kingdom into a Southeast Asian hub for the manufacture of electric vehicles. Nikkei Asia reports that big companies in Thailand are preparing to invest substantially in the greener mode of transport, after the National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee suggested a new manufacturing target could mean half of Thailand’s auto-production is made up of electric vehicles by 2030.

The message to car manufacturers and energy suppliers is to grab this opportunity to invest in the necessary infrastructure to support electric vehicles, as the number of drivers using such cars is expected to rise significantly. The Thailand Board of Investment says that between 2017 and 2019, investment in EV production and its infrastructure reached 79 billion baht. That figure is expected to rise at a much quicker rate over the next 3 years.

According to the Nikkei Asia report, Toyota was the first car manufacturer to make EVs in the Kingdom, with Chinese manufacturers becoming more competitive in recent years. The latest Chinese firm to join the EV revolution is Great Wall Motor, which plans to launch electric vehicles this year. The number of EV manufacturers in Thailand is also growing, but Surapong Phaisitpattanapong from the Federation of Thai Industries’ Automotive Industry Club says they still need to overcome serious supply chain challenges. He says manufacturers of the traditional internal combustion engine now find themselves trying to supply parts for electric vehicles, including batteries, motors and converters.

“It’s all about the economy of scale. If the number of EV users goes up substantially, it would be worth investing, and everyone, including auto parts makers, would be ready to switch to producing EV parts, and that would create supply chains that are ready for the development of EVs, but it will take time.”

Surapong points out that the government hasn’t provided enough subsidies to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles, saying there needs to be more of an incentive to deliver the sales boost needed.

“We think there should be a more direct subsidy for EV buyers to promote EVs, but we haven’t seen the government issue any kind of subsidies like that yet.”

SOURCE: Nikkei Asia

 

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Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Pfizer sees 45% increase in net income and revenue, as critics point to disparity in global vaccine availability

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Stock photo via Flickr

After seeing a 45% increase in net income from last year, Pfizer, the pharmaceutical giant, is largely increasing its projected profits for this year. And, the increase is undoubtedly due to the high amount of Covid-19 vaccine sales, in which the company says is shaping up to provide a “durable” revenue stream.

The company says this year’s first quarter profits featured almost 1/4 of sales coming from the Covid vaccines. As it is teaming with German partner BioNTech, the company is set to increase its vaccine production, putting it on track to see US$26 billion in revenues from the vaccine this year. The new number-crunching is an increase from the US$15 million that was projected in February of this year.

But the profits are triggering criticism as governments are feeling pressured to ensure vaccines are available in poorer countries. Chief Executive Albert Bourla, says the company is holding dialogues with “basically all governments of the world,” and it is awaiting approval from the US for 12 to 15 year olds to be able to receive the jab.

The company is also studying the efficacy of giving inoculations, or boosters, every 6 or more months after the second dose- in a move that signals even more profits on the horizon. Bourla says this scenario would allow the company to be both a leader and a financial beneficiary.

“It is our hope that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will continue to have a global impact by helping to get the devastating pandemic under control and helping economies around the world not only open, but stay open.”

But last month, World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, cited a “shocking imbalance in the global distribution of vaccines” and emphasised that the WHO’s Covax programmes must be fortified soon to allow poorer nations to gain access to the inoculations.

Zain Rizvi, a law and policy researcher at progressive Public Citizen advocacy group, says Pfizer’s increase in profits show the need for governments to take action to save lives.

“Pfizer is cashing in on the crisis and hoarding technology, even as billions of people around the world go without a vaccine. Pfizer’s profiteering shows the urgent need for governments to step-in. Governments should require Pfizer to share technology with manufacturers around the world to help ramp up global production.”

Pfizer has defended its vaccine pricing policy, saying it has moderated the cost to encourage broad access through the pandemic phase that could continue into the year 2022. But with a net income increasing by 45%, at US$4.9 billion over the past year and revenues jumping the same percentage to US$14.6 billion, critics point towards the continued disparity of vaccine availability between poor and rich countries. Pfizer’s shares have also increased by .3% to US$39.95.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

 

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Phuket

What will be the most expensive real estate on MONOPOLY: Phuket Edition?

Tanutam Thawan

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Phromthep Cape… Phuket Old Town… Patong Beach… These are just a few of the landmarks in Phuket that have now been short-listed since it was announced that Phuket will be getting its own edition of MONOPOLY.

The top squares of the the locally-themed game board will soon be handed over to Phuket’s most prominent places. With so much around Phuket that stands out, the public has been asked to help with what the top squares of MONOPOLY: Phuket edition should be.

“Thank you for everyone’s suggestions so far! We have seen so many wonderful ideas come in and we will start to put the game together very soon,” says Jennifer Lau of Winning Moves, the company putting together the Phuket edition of MONOPOLY under official license from MONOPOLY owners Hasbro.

“We’ve had so many suggestions for the most iconic places of Phuket to feature on the top end of the board, that it is difficult to decide what should be there!”

Tell Hasbro what you would like to see featured on the most prominent squares of the game by writing into the Phuket Monopoly Facebook page, or by emailing phuket@winningmoves.co.uk with your suggestions.

Maybe a “Go to jail (but pay 10,000 baht for a quick release)” or the Community Chest could be free for Thais but 500 baht for foreigners. When you land on a property you can be charged rent, but foreigners can’t buy the land. Go for it… 🙂

 

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