The investment banking firm JP Morgan says there are 5 emerging economies that are most vulnerable to the Delta variant – and Thailand is one of them. According to a Reuters report, the others are South Africa, Colombia, the Philippines, and Peru.
The primary reason given for these findings is the low rate of vaccination, with analysts comparing the pace of vaccine rollouts with the spread of the Delta variant first reported in India. In some countries, mass vaccination is not happening quickly enough to offset the surge in infections caused by the highly contagious variant.
The findings indicate that pressure on healthcare systems and rising death rates can result in governments being forced to re-introduce or extend mobility restrictions. Analysts say the rate of vaccination that will enable mobility to return to normal will vary depending on the country.
“The model estimates suggest that the Philippines, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, and Colombia face the longest journeys back to pre-pandemic levels of mobility, while Singapore, Turkey, India, and Brazil have the shortest journeys.”
According to Reuters, the findings also point to a general reluctance among Latin American nations to introduce lengthy mobility restrictions.
“While the region has shown surprising resilience in the face of the virus and other headwinds, downside risks to growth could still manifest through the impact of worsening public health on confidence even if the uptrend in mobility remains in place.”
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