India population expected to surpass China in 2023, world to hit 8 billion

For years, China has been the most populous country in the world, followed by India. But a report by the United Nations predicts that next year India will outpace China and become the country with the largest population in the world. With the slowing pace of mortality and high fertility rates in large portions of the world, the UN warns that economic growth will struggle.

An official population count in India has not been declared since 2011, when it was 1.21 billion, as their census is taken every 10 years and was delayed last year due to Covid-19. According to World Population Prospects (2019 Revision), China’s 2022 population is about 1.448 billion people, While India’s is 1.406 billion. But India has a growth rate of 0.95% compared to China’s 0.29% now, and last year India added over 13.2 million new citizens, while China added just 4.25 million.

The United States is the distant third most populous country in the world with about 334.8 million people, roughly 4.33 times less than China and 4.2 times less than the population of India.

November 15, 2022, is the target date when the world population is expected to hit 8 billion, with projections putting the 8.5 billion mark in 2030 and a huge world population of 10.4 billion by the year 2100. In 2020, the world population growth fell to under 1% and fertility rates are declining from about 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births in 2021 and are predicted to fall further to 2.1 births by 2050.

The coronavirus pandemic slowed the population growth, especially in hard-hit countries like India, with an estimated 14.9 million deaths in 2020 and 2021, which dropped the life expectancy rate from 72.8 years in 2019 down to 71 years in 2021.

61 countries are projected to decline at least 1% over the next few decades until 2050 because of the drop in fertility, though some regions are growing quickly. Currently only Lebanon and Lithuania are falling more than 1%, with Lebanon dropping 1.25% in Lithuania decreasing 1.05%.

The majority of countries with a birth rate over 2% are located in Africa, with a few like Iraq and Yemen in the Middle East and South Asia. Syria has by far the largest growth rate at 5.96%, with the next 5 top rates all below 4%, and in Africa: Niger at 3.79%, Equatorial Guinea at 3.23%, Angola at 3.22%, the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 3.1%, and Burundi at 3.01%.

The United Nations predicts that just 8 countries will account for more than half of the increase in the global population from now until 2050: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.

Thailand’s population is expected to surpass 70 million people this year, with a 0.18% growth rate, though last year government officials released an official population report of 66.1 million people, about 3 million less than global population estimators.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post