Export-tional growth: July’s 15.2% surge is highest in 28 months

Exports in July surged by 15.2%, marking the highest growth rate in 28 months, attributed to easing inflation and increased purchasing power among trading partners.

Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, the Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), reported that July’s exports rose by 15.2% to US$25.7 billion (938 billion baht), primarily driven by the cooling global inflation, which considerably enhanced consumer purchasing power.

Shipments in the real sector, excluding gold, oil-related products, and weaponry, saw an increase of 9.3%.

Employment boosts and wage adjustments among major trading partners, especially in Europe, spurred consumption recovery, positively affecting exports.

Notable markets showing strong recovery include the US, China, Southeast Asia, and the European Union.

This trend aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s world economic growth outlook, suggesting an uplift from China’s economic recovery and Europe’s rebound from a low point.

Thai export

Imports in July rose by 13.1% to US$27.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of US$1.37 billion.

For the first seven months of 2024, exports grew by 3.8% to US$171 billion, while imports rose by 4.4% to US$178 billion, leading to a trade deficit of US$6.62 billion.

Agricultural and agro-industrial products’ exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year to US$4.36 billion, recovering after a contraction in the previous month.

Products performing well included rubber, rice, fresh, chilled, frozen, and processed chicken, canned and processed seafood, pet food, and animal and vegetable fats and oils.

Conversely, some products saw a decline, such as fresh, chilled, frozen, and dried fruit, tapioca products, sugar, and beverages.

Industrial product exports increased by 15.6% year-on-year to US$20.3 billion, rebounding after a previous month’s contraction.

Key expanding products included oil-related products, computers, equipment and parts, rubber products, telephones, equipment and parts, and air conditioners and components.

However, some products experienced declines, including automobiles, equipment and parts, circuit boards, semiconductors, transistors and diodes, and internal combustion engines and parts, said Poonpong.

“Exports are expected to rise by 1 to 2% in 2024.”

The TPSO anticipates a gradual recovery in exports throughout 2024, in line with the improving global economy, trade environment, and signs of recovery in global industrial production.

Additionally, the growth of the digital economy is expected to support related products over the years.

Nevertheless, potential risks could pressure exports, such as ongoing geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties in economic and trade policies following elections in several key countries.

The Ministry of Commerce will continue to monitor these situations closely, reported Bangkok Post.

Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council, mentioned that although sea transport conditions are normalising with lower freight costs compared to the first half of the year, the potential appreciation of the baht in the fourth quarter might impact the export market.