Connect with us

Business

Finance Minister foreshadows slowing economy in 2019

Thaiger

Published 

 on 

“We expect the GDP growth for 2019 to be at least 4 per cent. However, the economic growth for 2019 is expected to be slower than 2018,”

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong predicts Thailand will encounter slower economic growth in 2019,. The Minister cites uncertainty from the trade war between China and the US, the upcoming Thai election and a slump in tourism as the key factors.

The Nation reports that Apisak made the comments at an event organised by the engineering faculty of Chulalongkorn University.

“The peak of the current economic cycle was during the first two quarters of last year, followed by an acute slump in the third quarter. Given that consumption and private investment are still continuously growing, we expect the economy to continue to grow in 2019, but at a slower pace.”

The first two quarters of this year saw growth of 4.8 per cent year on year. The economy managed growth of only 3.3 per cent in the third quarter and a recovery is expected in the fourth quarter, but not at the pace seen for the first two quarters, Apisak said at the Chulalongkorn event, the Engineering Dinner Talk.

Growth in exports is also expected to slow in 2019. This is due to the lagging negative impact of the trade war between the US and China, with some of the consequences to be felt next year.

“Many have suggested that Thailand can gain from the trade war through replacing Chinese goods in the US market and manufacturers moving their production base from China to Thailand. However, in the long-term, the trade war will only hurt the Thai economy,” the minister said. This is because Thailand is deeply entrenched in the supply chain, which is affected by the tariffs imposed by the two economic giants, he said.

At the event, Apisak addressed the relationship between the upcoming election and growth in foreign direct investment in the Kingdom.

“After talking to many foreign investors, they have said that they are holding off investing in Thailand until after the election. This is because they fear that political stability will be damaged as a result of the election,” said Apisak.

The final key factor likely to contribute to slower economic growth in 2019 is the decline in tourism. Visitor numbers have slumped significantly since a boat accident near Phuket in the middle of this year.

In August, 867,000 Chinese tourists visited the Kingdom, down 11.7 per cent month on month. In September, only 648,000 came, marking an even steeper 14.89 per cent fall month on month, according to the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB).

Apisak said the boat accident – which claimed the lives of dozens of mostly Chinese tourists – had led many Chinese to question Thailand’s safety standards, but it was not the only cause of the fall in tourism numbers.

“Tourism has also fallen as a result of external factors which we cannot control,” he said.

“The slowing global economy has led key tourist groups visiting Thailand to decrease.

“The slowing of the Chinese economy as a result of the trade war and the weakening of the yuan currency have led to falls in the number of Chinese tourists globally.”

With the declines in exports and tourism, Apisak said investment in the Industry 4.0 policies championed by the government, with the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) as a major component, will be the key driver of growth in 2019.

“The EEC is expected to be a key focal point of investment in 2019,” Apisak said. “With strong private investment levels in 2018, we expect this trend to continue into next year. Public investment in infrastructure and transportation throughout the country will intensify in 2019.

“Meanwhile, foreign direct investment into the EEC is also expected to rise after the election in February next year.”

Finance Minister foreshadows slowing economy in 2019 | News by Thaiger

Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong speaking at Chulalongkorn University

ORIGINAL STORY: The Nation

 

Want more Thailand news from the Thaiger family?

📱 Download our app on Android or iOS for instant updates on your mobile
📝️ Join the conversation on Thaiger Talk - discuss news & life in our Thailand forums
📧 Subscribe to our daily email newsletter
👍 Like/Follow us on Facebook
🔔 Subscribe to or Join our YouTube channel for daily video updates

image

Join the conversation and have your say on Thailand news published on The Thaiger.

Thaiger Talk is our new Thaiger Community where you can join the discussion on everything happening in Thailand right now.

Please note that articles are not posted to the forum instantly and can take up to 20 min before being visible. Click for more information and the Thaiger Talk Guidelines.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Thailand's largest online portal for news and information.

Follow Thaiger by email:

Phuket40 mins ago

Phuket police raids nab suspects for allegedly having guns, drugs, kratom

World1 hour ago

Antivirus legend John McAfee apparent suicide in Spanish prison

Coronavirus (Covid-19)2 hours ago

Thursday Covid Update: 4,108 new cases; provincial totals

Phuket Sandbox July 1st

days
hours
minutes
seconds

Thaiger is getting behind local businesses for the restart of tourism in July - up to 50% discounts across all advertising packages in June!

Coronavirus (Covid-19)2 hours ago

Bar girls in Pattaya arrested for allegedly violating Covid restrictions while live streaming

Protests2 hours ago

Gathering for 89th anniversary of constitutional monarchy

Crime3 hours ago

Police arrest suspect who allegedly killed Covid patient and 7-Eleven clerk

Coronavirus (Covid-19)3 hours ago

Multiple Bangkok hospitals stop Covid testing, citing fear of insufficient beds

Pattaya4 hours ago

Chon Buri governor says Pattaya bars will stay closed for now, Covid cases remain high

Crime4 hours ago

15 year old stabbed at private school

Thailand4 hours ago

UPDATE: Police identify alleged gunman who opened fire at field hospital, killing a patient

Thailand5 hours ago

PM orders investigation into pricey street lamps

Best of6 hours ago

Top 5 Thai Restaurants in Bangkok

Phuket6 hours ago

Phuket governor outlines plans to track and trace foreign arrivals

Coronavirus (Covid-19)6 hours ago

Thursday Covid Update: Latest wave exceeds 200,000 cases

Thailand6 hours ago

Guitarist from “Playground” dies in road incident

Thailand4 months ago

Thailand News Today | Thai Airways in rehab, All go for Songkran | March 4

Tourism4 months ago

Phuket’s nightlife. Yes, bars and clubs are still open | VIDEO

Phuket4 months ago

Thailand News Today | Covid passport talks, Thai Airways heads to court | March 2

Tourism4 months ago

Phuket Thai food treats you need to try | VIDEO

Thailand4 months ago

Thailand News Today | Bars, pubs and restaurants ‘sort of’ back to normal | Feb 23

Tourism4 months ago

In search of Cat & Dog Cafés in Phuket Town | VIDEO

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Gambling crackdown, Seafood market to reopen, Vlogger challenge | Jan 21

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Covid testing for visas, Business impact, Vaccine approval | January 19

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Weekend Bangkok bombs, Thailand fires, Covid update | January 18

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Stray car on runway, Indonesian quake, 300 baht tourist fee | January 15

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Governor off respirator, sex-trafficking arrest, condo prices falling | January 14

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Chinese vaccine, Thailand ‘drug hub’, Covid update | January 13

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Bangkok may ease restrictions, Phuket bar curfew, Vaccine roll out | January 12

Thailand5 months ago

Thailand News Today | Covid latest, Cockfights closed down, Bryde’s Whale beached | January 11

Thailand6 months ago

Thailand News Today | Southern floods, Face mask fines, Thai Air Asia woes | January 8

Trending