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Finance: Listen to price rather than opinions

Legacy Phuket Gazette

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PHUKET: It’s clear that the entire world is focused on the coming US elections as several of my non-US clients have asked me recently what the impact on their investments will be if Donald Trump actually is elected. One worried client even sent me an article from the New Yorker, highlighting the following lines:

“The Economist Intelligence Unit, an economic-and-geopolitical-analysis firm, has ranked the prospect of a Trump victory in its top-ten risks to the global economy. Larry Summers, a Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary, predicts that, taken together, Trump’s economic and trade policies would help trigger a protracted recession within 18 months.

Even if Trump stops short of applying tariffs, Mr Summers told me, “the perception that we might well be pursuing hyper-nationalist policies would be very damaging to confidence globally, and would substantially increase the risk of financial crises in emerging markets”.

On the other hand, and for every email I receive from a client worried about Trump being elected, I get a message expressing concern about Hillary Clinton winning and continuing the same policies of the last eight years along with the painfully slow (outside of the stock market’s outsized performance) economic recovery the US has been in.

The biggest problem investors face right now is listening to the news, as it’s all about Clinton vs Trump along with police brutality, riots, terrorism, Syria, refugee crises, Brexit fallout and other unknowns, but its worth reiterating this statement from mutual fund pioneer John Templeton: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”

I would add that the only thing we can base our stock market decisions on is price and technical charts. Throw out everything else – including articles like the one mentioned above.

Remember, the stock market charts are forward-looking indicators, and if we were headed toward a global recession, the Vanguard Total World Stock (NYSEARCA: VT), an ETF tracking 7,000 stocks, would be heading downward. It’s not. VT bottomed in January and broke out above an old high in the summer. And while the chart is now showing some uncertainty and could roll over, it could also be forming a higher low and/or still break higher.

The technical chart for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF also looks similar to that of VT, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has recently hit an all time high before falling off slightly. Both could still roll over into a downtrend to signal a recession, continue moving sideways or break higher. Right now though, the world stock markets are not telling us anything ominous and the FED has said that it will not yet raise interest rates.

I would be more worried about the global economy if VT did roll over from the present US$61 zone to below the US$55 zone, and also if we start to see leadership stocks getting killed. But I am not seeing that happen. For example: Apple is moving higher (albeit that shares are still below a previous all-time high), while Amazon.com has just hit a new all-time high.

In other words, investors need to follow price rather than opinion as stock market prices are not showing anything unhealthy right now. However, and if the market ends up not liking what US voters decide next month, we will know because stock prices will start to reflect this.

Don Freeman, BSME, is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket. He has over 15 years experience working with expatriates, specializing in portfolio management, US tax preparation, and financial planning. Call for a free portfolio review at 089 970-5795 or email freemancapital@gmail.com.

— Don Freeman

 

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Archiving articles from the Phuket Gazette circa 1998 - 2017. View the Phuket Gazette online archive and Digital Gazette PDF Prints.

Business

Thailand jumps on the electric bandwagon, aims to become EV production hub

Maya Taylor

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PHOTO: Flickr / JCT 600

The Thai government has ambitious plans to turn the Kingdom into a Southeast Asian hub for the manufacture of electric vehicles. Nikkei Asia reports that big companies in Thailand are preparing to invest substantially in the greener mode of transport, after the National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee suggested a new manufacturing target could mean half of Thailand’s auto-production is made up of electric vehicles by 2030.

The message to car manufacturers and energy suppliers is to grab this opportunity to invest in the necessary infrastructure to support electric vehicles, as the number of drivers using such cars is expected to rise significantly. The Thailand Board of Investment says that between 2017 and 2019, investment in EV production and its infrastructure reached 79 billion baht. That figure is expected to rise at a much quicker rate over the next 3 years.

According to the Nikkei Asia report, Toyota was the first car manufacturer to make EVs in the Kingdom, with Chinese manufacturers becoming more competitive in recent years. The latest Chinese firm to join the EV revolution is Great Wall Motor, which plans to launch electric vehicles this year. The number of EV manufacturers in Thailand is also growing, but Surapong Phaisitpattanapong from the Federation of Thai Industries’ Automotive Industry Club says they still need to overcome serious supply chain challenges. He says manufacturers of the traditional internal combustion engine now find themselves trying to supply parts for electric vehicles, including batteries, motors and converters.

“It’s all about the economy of scale. If the number of EV users goes up substantially, it would be worth investing, and everyone, including auto parts makers, would be ready to switch to producing EV parts, and that would create supply chains that are ready for the development of EVs, but it will take time.”

Surapong points out that the government hasn’t provided enough subsidies to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles, saying there needs to be more of an incentive to deliver the sales boost needed.

“We think there should be a more direct subsidy for EV buyers to promote EVs, but we haven’t seen the government issue any kind of subsidies like that yet.”

SOURCE: Nikkei Asia

 

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Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Pfizer sees 45% increase in net income and revenue, as critics point to disparity in global vaccine availability

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Stock photo via Flickr

After seeing a 45% increase in net income from last year, Pfizer, the pharmaceutical giant, is largely increasing its projected profits for this year. And, the increase is undoubtedly due to the high amount of Covid-19 vaccine sales, in which the company says is shaping up to provide a “durable” revenue stream.

The company says this year’s first quarter profits featured almost 1/4 of sales coming from the Covid vaccines. As it is teaming with German partner BioNTech, the company is set to increase its vaccine production, putting it on track to see US$26 billion in revenues from the vaccine this year. The new number-crunching is an increase from the US$15 million that was projected in February of this year.

But the profits are triggering criticism as governments are feeling pressured to ensure vaccines are available in poorer countries. Chief Executive Albert Bourla, says the company is holding dialogues with “basically all governments of the world,” and it is awaiting approval from the US for 12 to 15 year olds to be able to receive the jab.

The company is also studying the efficacy of giving inoculations, or boosters, every 6 or more months after the second dose- in a move that signals even more profits on the horizon. Bourla says this scenario would allow the company to be both a leader and a financial beneficiary.

“It is our hope that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will continue to have a global impact by helping to get the devastating pandemic under control and helping economies around the world not only open, but stay open.”

But last month, World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, cited a “shocking imbalance in the global distribution of vaccines” and emphasised that the WHO’s Covax programmes must be fortified soon to allow poorer nations to gain access to the inoculations.

Zain Rizvi, a law and policy researcher at progressive Public Citizen advocacy group, says Pfizer’s increase in profits show the need for governments to take action to save lives.

“Pfizer is cashing in on the crisis and hoarding technology, even as billions of people around the world go without a vaccine. Pfizer’s profiteering shows the urgent need for governments to step-in. Governments should require Pfizer to share technology with manufacturers around the world to help ramp up global production.”

Pfizer has defended its vaccine pricing policy, saying it has moderated the cost to encourage broad access through the pandemic phase that could continue into the year 2022. But with a net income increasing by 45%, at US$4.9 billion over the past year and revenues jumping the same percentage to US$14.6 billion, critics point towards the continued disparity of vaccine availability between poor and rich countries. Pfizer’s shares have also increased by .3% to US$39.95.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

 

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Phuket

What will be the most expensive real estate on MONOPOLY: Phuket Edition?

Tanutam Thawan

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Phromthep Cape… Phuket Old Town… Patong Beach… These are just a few of the landmarks in Phuket that have now been short-listed since it was announced that Phuket will be getting its own edition of MONOPOLY.

The top squares of the the locally-themed game board will soon be handed over to Phuket’s most prominent places. With so much around Phuket that stands out, the public has been asked to help with what the top squares of MONOPOLY: Phuket edition should be.

“Thank you for everyone’s suggestions so far! We have seen so many wonderful ideas come in and we will start to put the game together very soon,” says Jennifer Lau of Winning Moves, the company putting together the Phuket edition of MONOPOLY under official license from MONOPOLY owners Hasbro.

“We’ve had so many suggestions for the most iconic places of Phuket to feature on the top end of the board, that it is difficult to decide what should be there!”

Tell Hasbro what you would like to see featured on the most prominent squares of the game by writing into the Phuket Monopoly Facebook page, or by emailing phuket@winningmoves.co.uk with your suggestions.

Maybe a “Go to jail (but pay 10,000 baht for a quick release)” or the Community Chest could be free for Thais but 500 baht for foreigners. When you land on a property you can be charged rent, but foreigners can’t buy the land. Go for it… 🙂

 

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