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Finance: Analyzing key market indices for tech stocks

Legacy Phuket Gazette

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Finance: Analyzing key market indices for tech stocks | The Thaiger

PHUKET: As of the end of March, US stock markets hit some overhead resistance on their technical charts and pulled back a bit, with the rally that started in February looking similar on the technical charts to the rally of September, which ultimately rolled over.

There is a strong possibility that the market (or at least the S&P 500) has been in a shallow ten to 15 per cent correction and may be trying to finally break the downtrend. However, many stocks over the past two years have lost between 20 and 70 per cent of their value, much more than broader US indices, making the market very challenging for investors.

For that reason, it’s worth taking a closer look at some key market indices:

The S&P 500 needs to break out above the 2,100 level. However, there continues to be a risk of another low, because the index peaked last summer, then rallied again in December to a lower high and is now in another rally.

The problem is that the last rallies were followed by new lower lows – the very definition of a downtrend. If the bulls continue to buy and leadership stocks start to emerge, we could still see the S&P 500 above that 2,100 level and perhaps finally break the downtrend. If that were to happen, it could be time to start investing in stocks again.

Where tech stocks go is where the stock market (especially the tech laden NASDAQ) will ultimately go. And that’s why I am watching the technical chart for the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK). This ETF needs to take out its old high, but the technical chart shows a lower high with sellers gaining control back in January, and now a counter-trend rally is underway. Since the jury is still out and the ETF could end up rolling back over again, investors need to remain patient and watch its technical chart.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLI) is actually looking very bullish as the technical chart shows the ETF taking off again and breaking above a downtrend line. However, we need to see buyers step in to get XLI back up to the US$58 level. If the ETF can clear this old high, we can cross out the last peak on the technical chart. For that reason, I am watching XLI very carefully as one sector I might take a position in, if I see follow through.

The Financial Select

Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF) has begun acting well after being really punished in January. Despite a nice four-week rally since then, XLF is starting to hit overhead resistance on its technical chart as some key financial stocks are in critical care right now. And while central banks are doing everything they can to prop up their respective economies, the US Fed will be out of moves to help the financial sector should XLF roll over again. XLF was up three per cent by April 24; it continues to improve and now sits above its 200 day moving average, a positive sign.

The SPDR STOXX Europe 50 ETF (NYSEARCA: FEU) and European markets have not recovered all that much over the last six years. Although FEU has tried to rally, the recent terrorist attacks have further hit performance and it remains in a bear market with an ongoing downward trend. Until FEU can produce a higher high, I would completely avoid European stocks.

Some leadership stocks are starting to emerge and I will be ready to take new positions if the Dow Jones can continue to break higher. However, I will also be sticking with the US markets – if and only if they can get going to the upside.

Don Freeman, BSME is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket. He has over 15 years’ experience working with expatriates, specializing in portfolio management, US tax preparation, financial planning and UK pension transfers. Call for a free portfolio review. Don can be reached at: 089-970-5795 or email: freemancapital@gmail.com.

— Don Freeman

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Governments & old media versus social media – who will win? | VIDEO

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Governments & old media versus social media – who will win? | VIDEO | The Thaiger

We look at the recent changes made by the Australian and Indian governments to except control over the world’s biggest social media platforms. India has issued strict new rules for Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms just weeks after the Indian government attempted to pressure Twitter to take down social media accounts it deemed, well, anti social. There is now an open battle between the rise of social media platforms and the governments and ‘old’ media that have been able to maintain a certain level of control over the ‘message’ for the last century. Who will win?

The rules require any social media company to create three roles within India… a “compliance officer” who ensures they follow local laws; a “grievance officer” who addresses complaints from Indian social media users; and a “contact person” who can actually be contacted by lawyers and other aggrieved Indian parties… 24/7.

The democratisation of the news model, with social media as its catalyst, will continue to baffle traditional media and governments who used to enjoy a level of control over what stories get told. The battles of Google and Facebook, with the governments of India and Australia will be followed in plenty of other countries as well.

At the root of all discussions will be the difference between what governments THINK social media is all about and the reality about how quickly the media landscape has changed. You’ll get to read about it first, on a social media platform… probably on the screen you’re watching this news story right now.

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The social media giants in battle with ‘old’ media and world governments | VIDEO

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The social media giants in battle with ‘old’ media and world governments | VIDEO | The Thaiger

“The rules signal greater willingness by countries around the world to rein in big tech firms such as Google, Facebook and Twitter that the governments fear have become too powerful with little accountability.”

India has issued strict new rules for Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms just weeks after the Indian government attempted to pressure Twitter to take down social media accounts it deemed, well, anti social.

The rules require any social media company to create three roles within India… a “compliance officer” who ensures they follow local laws; a “grievance officer” who addresses complaints from Indian social media users; and a “contact person” who can actually be contacted by lawyers and other aggrieved Indian parties… 24/7.

The companies are also being made to publish a compliance report each month with details about how many complaints they’ve received and the action they took.

They’ll also be required to remove ‘some’ types of content including “full or partial nudity,” any “sexual act” or “impersonations including morphed images”

The democratisation of the news model, with social media as its catalyst, will continue to baffle traditional media and governments who used to enjoy a level of control over what stories get told.

The battles of Google and Facebook, with the governments of India and Australia will be followed in plenty of other countries as well.

At the root of all discussions will be the difference between what governments THINK social media is all about and the reality about how quickly the media landscape has changed. You’ll get to read about it first, on a social media platform… probably on the screen you’re watching this news story right now.

Keep in contact with The Thaiger by following our Facebook page.

Never miss out on future posts by following The Thaiger.

Continue Reading

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Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO

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Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO | The Thaiger

When the airlines, in particular, were asking the government to put their hands in their pockets for some relief funding in August last year, it was genuinely thought that international tourists would be coming back for the high season in December and January. At the very least local tourists and expats would head back to the skies over the traditional holiday break. And surely the Chinese would be back for Chinese New Year?

As we know now, none of that happened. A resurge in cases started just south of Bangkok on December 20 last year, just before Christmas, kicking off another round of restrictions, pretty much killing off any possibility of a high season ‘bump’ for the tourist industry. Airlines slashed flights from their schedule, and hotels, which had dusted off their reception desks for the surge of tourists, shut their doors again.

Domestically, the hotel business saw 6 million room nights in the government’s latest stimulus campaign fully redeemed. But the air ticket quota of 2 million seats still has over 1.3 million seats unused. Local tourists mostly skipped flights and opted for destinations within driving distance of their homes.

As for international tourism… well that still seems months or years away, even now.

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