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Coronavirus (Covid-19)

28,000 daily Covid-19 infections possible without “decisive action”

Neill Fronde



FILE PHOTO: Mask up! Covid-19 infections could be surging this month.

Without swift and decisive action, Covid-19 infections could surge to 28,000 people per day within the next month . This according to expert warnings and computer predictive modelling. The Department of Disease Control warns that the current spike is more infectious and deadly than the previous 2 waves and extreme action is needed. 967 new infections were reported by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration yesterday, the highest single-day number Thailand has ever seen.

The DDC’s epidemiology division, working with the International Health Policy Program, calculated models to predict the arc of future infection rates if Covid-19 safety measures were not enforced. The model’s worst-case scenario predicted a maximum of 28,678 daily cases.

This is the worst-case scenario, however, as the minimum number of infections could be around 1,300 people. But a reasonable average without safety measures could be about 9000 daily infections, not a great situation for Thailand, a country that had until now done a great job avoiding a heavy wave of Covid-19 infections.

But for the UK variant (B117) newly arriving in Thailand, much like many new tourists arriving before it, Thailand’s hedonistic nightlife scene may be where it all goes wrong. Of Bangkok’s 1,114 infections, 823 of them were traced to entertainment venues. Across Thailand, a total of 140 bars and clubs in 15 provinces have been identified as virus-transmission locations.

Krystal Club in Thong Lor, now infamous amidst a swirl of news of politicians and powerful elite spreading infection there, tops the list of the 85 Bangkok infected clubs, with 211 infections this month. Chon Buri, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Pathum Thani, and Chiang Mai all had less than 10 Covid-19 infections linked to nightlife venues. In total, Covid-19 cases linked to nightlife outbreaks have spread to 70 provinces all over Thailand.

As a result, we’re facing a party-free Songkran with 41 provinces closing all entertainment venues for 2 weeks and the 36 other provinces are following stringent screening and mask-wearing, poised to lock down the same if the pandemic comes knocking.

Bangkok intends to ready 10,000 field-hospital beds in preparation for any possible surge of the more infectious B117 strain spreading through Thailand now. The DDC does reassure though that the situation is still manageable if everyone works together and takes swift and strong actions.

The third wave of Covid-19 infections might be contained, but it will take a lot of personal discipline from everyone, and a sacrifice of Songkran’s joyous celebrations, unfortunately.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post


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  1. Avatar


    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:17 pm

    more you test, more y will find, but really how strong illness is there ? how many really need hospitalization ? distanciation, good masks, washing hands, will be fine

  2. Avatar


    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:19 pm

    Take action, not with this incompetent useless junta government. Action should have been taken months ago but as usual with this joke to a government. Money comes first, always, never ever react before it’s way to late, blame game on and save our snowflake faces. Siam Biotech kiss my ass.

  3. Avatar


    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:55 pm

    There are likely more than 28,000 infections right now, but most of them go unnoticed. You will have many more in a few weeks, but you may not have a flood of deaths and hospitalizations.

  4. Avatar


    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 8:38 pm

    Let’s cause some more unnecessary craziness for the people! Can’t believe this!! Yep cases may rise but you would have to be very naive to believe 28k per day!! There has only been 33,610 TOTAL to date. Of which the recovery rate is 97.3%!!! Total of 97 deaths since the start of the COVID scare! WHERE ARE THE VACCINATIONS FOR THE PEOPLE?
    Now for some other facts! On day 2 of the zero deaths Songkran safety campaign 30 have DIED! That’s 2 days!!! And the government is worried about a virus that will never be eradicated!!

  5. Avatar


    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 9:28 pm

    What a bunch of absolute nonsense!! Does anyone remember how all of these lockdowns and other insane measures started with the completely bogus computer model estimates of Neil Ferguson in the UK? This is just more scare mongering to convince people to accept the experimental rushed vaccines. Don’t fall for it.

    • Avatar


      Monday, April 12, 2021 at 9:36 pm

      Exactly!! Can’t believe they are trying scare more of these poor people!!

  6. Avatar

    toby andrews

    Monday, April 12, 2021 at 10:49 pm

    Decisive action, such a using the doses of vaccinations in Thailand to vaccinate Thai citizens.
    They have about.5000.000 doses of vaccines unused . . .

  7. Avatar


    Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:01 am

    Thailand prepare for a highly infectious contagious epidemic, you will have more than 100,000 infections without realizing it. We already live it in Europe. Goodbye to tourism 2021. Goodbye to sell to condominiums of 35 square meters for the theft of 3 million bath. crazy’s

  8. Avatar


    Thursday, April 15, 2021 at 8:47 am

    Bring on the economic collapse.

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Neill is a journalist from the United States with 10 years broadcasting experience and national news and magazine publications. He graduated with a degree in journalism and communications from the University of California and has been living in Thailand since 2014.

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