Thai’ed down: Fertility crisis set to halve Thailand’s population in six decades

Thailand’s population is predicted to plummet by half over the ensuing six decades due to a mounting fertility crisis. This alarming situation has spurred the Ministry of Public Health to instigate measures to encourage pregnancy and subsequently manage the drastic demographic shift that the country is poised to face.

The Public Health Minister, Cholnan Srikaew, highlighted yesterday, October 30 that every province in Thailand is susceptible to the repercussions of this demographic alteration. Currently, the fertility rate for Thai women stands at an average of 1.16, indicating that a woman has approximately 1.16 children throughout her lifetime. An exception to this trend is observed in Yala province, which reports a fertility rate of 2.27.

The declining fertility rate was first observed in 1993, with a recorded rate of 2.1. This decline coincides with a decrease in the number of births. In the span from 1963 to 1983, the average annual births were around one million. However, in 2021, the total number of newborns was a mere 485,085, remarkably lower than the annual death toll of 550,042.

Cholnan attributed the primary causes of this decline to economic, social, educational, and environmental issues, with health problems accounting for a mere 10%.

Without effective measures, the current year could mark the first instance where the number of workers aged 20-24 years is outnumbered by retirees aged 60-64 years. This widening gap could result in labour shortages, increased dependency on the working group, and a surge in healthcare expenses for the elderly, stated Cholnan.

“We have been working to promote the issue of pregnancy into the national agenda so that the government will do its job to invest in human resources development, including providing financial assistance to newborn babies and assistance for infertility problems.”

Kua Wongboonsin, a scholar at the College of Population Studies, Chulalongkorn University, projected that the Thai population will dwindle to 33 million by 2083, approximately half of the current 66 million.

The working-age population (15-64 years) is expected to shrink from 46 million to 14 million. The number of infants (0-14 years) is likely to drop from 10 million to one million.

Conversely, the elderly population (65 years and above) is predicted to surge from eight million to 18 million, accounting for half the total population by 2083.

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