NESDC: China’s economic slowdown could have significant effect on Thailand

Thailand is on high alert as the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) closely monitors the ripple effects of China’s economic deceleration.

Despite initial projections, China’s sluggish growth last year has cast shadows over Thailand’s economic prospects for the coming year.

NESDC’s chief, Danucha Pichayanan, predicts Thailand’s economic expansion in 2024 to hover between 2.7% and 3.7%, with a median projection of 3.2%. The fuel for this growth engine? A concoction of increased government spending, sustained private sector investments, and an unwavering domestic consumption trend since 2023.

Post-pandemic, Thailand’s rebounding economy saw a resurgence in public spending and domestic tourism, especially benefiting the service sector. However, external forces threaten the sunny economic outlook. Global vulnerability, volatile economies, and geopolitical quagmires are playing havoc.

On the world stage, NESDC forecasts a 2.7% expansion for the global economy in 2024, a tad lower than last year’s 2.8%, with global trade volume expected to make a comeback, reaching 3.2% from last year’s 2.1% growth. China, despite initial expectations, appears to be faltering, grappling with real estate debt issues and a dip in domestic consumption, putting the entire global economy at risk. The Thai government’s strategy in navigating these stormy waters is pivotal.

Anticipating a 4.3% growth in China’s economy in 2024, a slowdown from the previous year’s 4.9%, NESDC underlines the need for Thailand to stay nimble in adapting to China’s economic hurdles. As NESDC juggles with these global economic puzzle pieces, it emphasises that continuous monitoring is essential to grasp potential impacts on the Thai economy.

While China struggles, Thailand sees a glimmer of hope in maintaining high export potential, despite a 1% dip in exports to China during the first 11 months of the previous year. Geopolitical concerns, particularly in Israel, loom large, potentially affecting oil prices, reported The Nation.

NESDC’s forecast of a 3.8% surge in Thailand’s exports this year compared to the previous year emphasises the urgency to keep the export momentum rolling.

To rev up the tourism sector’s engine, NESDC advocates stimulating foreign tourist spending, an area yet to reach its full potential. With the global economy at a potential crossroads, Thailand’s survival strategy includes expanding trade markets, attracting tourists, and accelerating trade negotiations and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with key partners.