El Niño could trigger three-year rice shortage, warns Thailand’s Commerce Minister
Commerce Minister Phumtham Wechayachai expressed worries over a potential three-year-long impact of the El Niño-induced drought. This prolonged effect could potentially harm rice production and create a shortage in domestic consumption.
Phumtham commissioned the Internal Trade Department and Foreign Trade Department to jointly monitor and alleviate the potential impacts of the El Niño phenomenon and the ensuing drought.
He voiced his concerns over the possible effects on the cultivation of key agricultural commodities such as rice, cassava, maize, and oil palm. This could result in a diminished supply due to the global drought affecting various countries.
Phumtham noted that while a number of nations are keen on procuring these products from Thailand, and the country has a sufficient domestic supply, excessively rapid exports could precipitate domestic shortages. Therefore, it is pivotal to appropriately manage domestic stocks and balance export activities so as not to destabilise domestic product prices.
Phumtham reassured that the Commerce Ministry has no plans to impose export bans or restrictions on agricultural commodities, despite the increased international demand for rice and other agricultural products due to apprehensions surrounding the potentially severe ramifications of the El Niño phenomenon.
He stressed that the prices of most agricultural commodities may experience swift fluctuations, thus the focus should extend beyond sole prices to ensure an ample domestic supply of agricultural commodities.
He urged rice exporters to collaborate in monitoring the country’s rice quantity, rather than merely hoping for increased rice prices. He advised that these concerns ought to be conveyed to the relevant bodies and associations.
Rice production
Chookiat Ophaswongse, the honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, predicted that this year’s rice production will be less affected by El Niño and should surpass last year’s yield, thanks to consistent rainfall.
Chookiat quoted a report by the US Department of Agriculture forecasting a rise in global rice production from 518 million tonnes to 523 million tonnes, with India and China’s production remaining stable.
Pakistan is predicted to boost its production, while Thailand and Vietnam are expected to maintain their current production levels. He estimated Thailand’s production at 20 million tonnes of milled rice, which should prevent rice shortages unless the drought intensifies next year.
He noted that some forecasts suggest El Niño may last for an additional two years, but that this year’s impact has been relatively mild, with a milder impact expected next year, reported Bangkok Post.
Chookiat also noted that rice exporters estimate Thailand may export between 8 to 8.2 million tonnes of rice this year. By next year, the projected rice exports may range from 7 to 7.5 million tonnes, and he anticipates fierce competition in the global rice market.
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