Thailand’s tourist trade rocked by tariff-ic blow
Thai hoteliers brace for price cuts, fewer Chinese visitors and global slowdown squeeze
Thailand’s tourist trade is feeling the heat, not from the sun, but from a chilly global economy and punishing US tariffs that are sending shockwaves all the way to Bangkok’s hotel lobbies.
Thailand’s hotel sector is bracing for a rough ride as fewer foreign visitors and shrinking wallets threaten to slash spending, spark price wars and pile pressure on operators, both at home and abroad.
The latest blow comes courtesy of retaliatory tariffs from the United States, which analysts warn will ripple through the global economy and take a chunk out of Thailand’s once-booming tourism industry.
According to CGS International Securities, spending per head in the Land of Smiles is expected to drop by 1% in 2026 and then flatline in 2027, thanks to the looming global slowdown.
CGS, part of the Beijing-based China Galaxy Securities group, has also cut its 2025 tourist arrival forecast from 39 million to 34.5 million, down from 35.5 million in 2024. Its 2026 forecast has been slashed from 41 million to 36.3 million.
Figures for the first quarter of 2025 show just how sluggish the recovery has become. Arrivals totalled 9.5 million, a mere 2% rise year-on-year but still lagging 12% behind pre-pandemic 2019 levels, Bangkok Post reported.
And Chinese tourists, once Thailand’s golden goose, are staying away in droves. Arrivals from China plummeted by 24% in Q1 to 1.3 million, down from 1.8 million last year and less than half of the 3.1 million recorded in Q1 of 2019, said CGS’s head of research, Kasem Prunratanamala.
“It might take several months before there’s a meaningful improvement in Chinese arrivals.”
Blaming the global slowdown and US tariff tensions, Kasem predicted just 5.1 million Chinese tourists will visit Thailand this year, a massive 25% dip from 2024’s 6.7 million.
And it’s not just domestic hotels feeling the squeeze. Thai hospitality brands with overseas branches are also bracing for a downturn, with weaker demand, tighter margins and stiffer competition expected across the board.
Even Thailand’s weakened baht, which would normally lure bargain-hungry foreigners, can’t turn the tide. CGS says its benefit is outweighed by the wider economic drag and the hotel industry’s own internal price battles.
Bloomberg’s global GDP forecast adds to the gloom: 2.8% growth this year and 3% in 2026, both lower than the 3.2% seen in 2024.
Kasem added that unless the US president moves to ease tariffs, the pain is likely to continue, hitting tourism directly and hammering the global economy indirectly.
And it’s not just the macro numbers worrying market watchers. KGI Securities (Thailand) noted that hotels traditionally see a slump in the second quarter, when the high season ends and tourist traffic slows.
KGI analyst Parin Kitchatornpitak suggested the only potential lifeline may be a government stimulus campaign like the ‘We Travel Together’ scheme, which could help prop up domestic demand during the leaner months.
Even so, KGI has trimmed its own 2025 arrivals projection from 38 million to 36.5 million, citing a sluggish recovery from both the Chinese and Korean markets.
With fewer planes landing, spending shrinking, and the hotel sector on high alert, Thailand’s tourism titans are now locked in a game of survival, hoping for sunnier economic skies ahead.
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