Thai exports to grow by 1 to 2% amid global uncertainties

The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) expects a modest expansion in export value this year, projecting a growth rate of 1 to 2%.

TNSC Chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk confirmed the council’s forecast for 1 to 2% export growth this year, as of August 2024.

Despite this optimistic outlook, the TNSC remains cautious due to several unpredictable factors expected in the second half of the year. These include geopolitical conflicts in Europe, the ongoing genocide in Palestine, and the Middle East, the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the upcoming US presidential election, the US labour movement, and rising freight and surcharge costs.

The council also highlighted the need to closely monitor the Red Sea attacks, which could potentially disrupt Thai exports to Europe and the Middle East.

Concerns are growing over China’s overproduction and subsequent export of low-cost products to the global market. This influx of inexpensive goods raises the risk of Thai manufacturers losing market share to Chinese suppliers, reported Bangkok Post.

Additionally, small and medium-sized shippers are grappling with a liquidity shortage, impacting their ability to manufacture goods for export, Chaichan noted.

The TNSC recommended that the government take proactive steps to support overseas trade promotion activities. Such initiatives would help enhance the global recognition of Thai products and restructure the export sector, enabling Thai entrepreneurs to adapt and remain competitive in the long term, the council advised.

“Exporters should manage annual freight contracts with carriers or freight forwarders to lock in rates, ensuring smooth operations and cost management during both lull and peak seasons.”

The government is also urged to promote foreign investment that supports Thai suppliers, providing vulnerable groups and small and medium-sized enterprises with access to credit to expand their export capabilities, Chaichan reiterated.

“Vulnerable groups and small and medium-sized enterprises need access to credit to expand exports.”