Thai exports expected to grow 1-2% despite geopolitical tensions

The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) anticipates a modest increase in export value by 1 to 2% in the latter half of this year, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East.

Chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk confirmed that the TNSC is maintaining its export growth forecast at 1 to 2% for the year. However, the council remains cautious due to several unpredictable factors, including geopolitical conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, the trade war between the US and China, the forthcoming US presidential election, and rising production costs.

These costs encompass increases in daily minimum wages, energy and electricity prices, as well as higher freight and surcharge costs, exacerbated by a shortage of containers as China increases its production and exports.

Chaichan highlighted that small and medium-sized shippers are struggling with a liquidity shortage for manufacturing intended for exports. The baht is expected to weaken further against the US dollar, potentially falling to 36 to 37 per dollar, which could enhance the competitiveness of Thai exports in foreign markets.

The TNSC advised the government to maintain energy and electricity prices, the daily minimum wage, and logistics costs at manageable levels. Exporters were encouraged to manage annual freight contracts with carriers or freight forwarders to secure stable rates, ensuring smooth operations and cost management during lull and peak seasons.

Chaichan also urged the government to support and promote investment in industries with export potential, such as electronic components and electrical appliances. He emphasised the need for vulnerable groups and small and medium-sized enterprises to access credit to expand their export capabilities, reported Bangkok Post.

The TNSC proposed enhancing overseas trade promotion activities to increase global recognition of Thai products and restructuring the export sector to help Thai entrepreneurs adapt and stay competitive in the long term, Chaichan said.

“Hopefully Thailand’s political situation stabilises, as I’m confident the nation can meet its export growth target of 1 to 2% this year.”