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Finance: Using fundamental and technical analysis to gauge stocks

Legacy Phuket Gazette

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Finance: Using fundamental and technical analysis to gauge stocks | The Thaiger

PHUKET: When I decide that a stock could either be worth buying or worth placing on a watch list, the first thing I do is look at the stock’s fundamentals using a stock research and marketing tool called ‘MarketSmith’.

Using small cap LGI Homes (NASDAQ: LGIH) as a sample stock, let’s look at some fundamental data that will help decide whether its worth owning or watching.

Return on Equity (ROE) is a key measure of profitability that calculates how many dollars of profit a company generates with each dollar of shareholders’ equity. An ROE of more than 10-15 per cent is good, while LGIH’s ROE of 25 per cent is very healthy.

Quarterly revenue or sales along with earnings per share (EPS) should both be going up year-on-year and that’s the case with LGIH. Quarterly or sequential increases may also be a consideration, but keep in mind that some sectors like housing and retail are very cyclical.

Market capitalization, float and shares outstanding will tell you how big and well traded a stock is. LGIH has a market capitalization of about US$672 million, making it a small cap. A few hundred thousand shares are traded per day, meaning that it’s reasonably well traded for a company of its size. A more lightly traded stock will be more volatile.

What the underlying company does is also important. LGIH is focused on the design, construction and sale of single family homes in strong growth markets within the US.

While the above fundamentals are important, a technical chart is the most important consideration for when to buy and when to sell. For this, I use a program called ‘TeleChart 2000’, which allows me to look at the main time frames for a stock.

I will start my technical analysis with a monthly chart where I want to visually see a long term uptrend. Looking at LGIH’s chart shows that it’s not an old stock as it only went public in 2013, then moved sideways until 2015, when it quickly lurched significantly higher before coming back down again.

Overall, LGIH’s technical chart is showing an uptrend. I also prefer to buy stocks after pullbacks and LGIH’s chart is clearly showing a pullback for roughly the last four months of 2016.

I will then take a closer look at the weekly chart. Usually stocks in bull markets will make strong moves upward and this will be picked up by a weekly chart. A strong upward move will also build up selling pressure as some investors or traders decide they want to take profits off the table. This causes shares to eventually peak and fall off until the ‘smart money’ comes back in for more shares on the dip and causes the uptrend to continue past the old previous high.

A daily chart and a 30-minute trend should also be reviewed. Keep in mind that detailed charts have more day to day noise, but, they can be useful for spotting resistance levels.

Remember: winning stocks will go through corrections and this is perfectly normal. LGIH has all the hallmarks of potentially being a winner moving forward. That’s why I am keeping a close eye on it.

Don Freeman, BSME, is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Adviser with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket. For more information, contact 089-970 5795 or email [email protected]

— Don Freeman



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Transport Ministry and State Railways told to pay HK company 11.9 billion baht

The Thaiger

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Transport Ministry and State Railways told to pay HK company 11.9 billion baht | The Thaiger

The long running issue of Bangkok’s ‘stonehenge’ has been resolved after the Supreme Administrative Court handed down its findings today over the disputed contract of the 60 kilometre link from central Bangkok to Don Mueang Airport.

The Thai Ministry of Transport and the State Railway of Thailand have been dealt a costly blow after the Supreme Administrative Court today overturned the Administrative Court’s verdict and ordered the two state agencies pay almost 11.9 billion baht in compensation to the Hong Kong-based Hopewell Holdings Company for the termination of the Hopewell project – a 60 kilometre elevated highway and rail line from central Bangkok to Don Meuang international airport back in the 90s.

Thai PBS reports that the compensation, plus another 500 million baht in bank guarantees put up by Hopewell Holdings Company, must be paid within 180 days of the verdict from the Supreme Administrative Court.

The Thai court’s verdict will put an end to the long-running legal battle, between the Transport Ministry and the SRT on one side and HK’s Hopewell Holdings on the other.

Hopewell Holding was granted the 30 year concession in 1990 to manage the project, given the nickname of the Thai “Stonehenge”.  The project was riddled with difficulties and widely criticised, resulting in construction being suspended in 1992 and the eventual termination of the contract in 1998, with less than 20% of the work completed.

The dispute over compensation went through an arbitration process under the auspices of the Thai Arbitration Institute which in 2008 ruled in favour of Hopewell Holdings, with both the Transport Ministry and the SRT ordered to pay Hopewell about 12 billion baht in compensation for wrongful termination of the concession.

The two state agencies challenged the arbitration tribunal’s ruling by taking the case to the Administrative Court which in October 2014 overturned the tribunal’s ruling on the grounds that Hopewell’s claim was barred by a time limitation.

Hopewell Holdings then successfully appealed the ruling to the Supreme Administrative Court.

SOURCE: The PBS

Transport Ministry and State Railways told to pay HK company 11.9 billion baht | News by The Thaiger

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Phuket hotel watch – 3 months down, 9 to go in 2019

Bill Barnett

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Phuket hotel watch – 3 months down, 9 to go in 2019 | The Thaiger

by Bill Barnett of C9Hotelworks.com

At the beginning of the year Phuket’s tourism and hotel sector was cautiously optimistic after a strong first half of 2018 and humbling second half. Key terms that kept popping up were Mainland Chinese, Thai Baht Appreciation, Elections and Supply Concerns.

So today, with three months of performance under the belt in 2019 what are the key trends in hotel trading? These can best be compressed in the following points –

According to data from hotel benchmarking group STR, Thailand remains Southeast Asia’s leading destination for Mainland Chinese, but the gloss is being diminished by Vietnam’s meteoric rise, and strong numbers by the Philippines and Cambodia.

Market-wide RevPar shunk by 0.04% in 2018 and flat demand at the onset of the year is now shifting into negative territory moving into February and beyond. Turning back to last year, group demand is falling which is as key concern in a wholesale driven marketplace.

One stark positive is that RevPar is being propped up by rates and not occupancy. A key takeaway is that in peak and high season, Phuket hotels are able to drive rates up in key periods and continue to do so. This of course is a broad trend.  Good hotels tend to perform at higher levels, while poorly managed ones remain subpar.

Getting beyond the numbers, as I speak to hoteliers the expectation is that wholesalers remain a critical component of the island’s hotel industry and despite the expected shift with technology to more direct bookings, the reality is that wholesale models are sensitive to demand volatility and the result of this feeding frenzy most often will be either flat rates for the year or in some cases a retraction.

We expect the remainder of 2019 to be challenging. Some hotels will look at this as an opportunity to reposition, renovate or cut costs. While others will look at new segments, niche offerings or emerging markets like India to regain momentum.

As for the top critical issues facing Phuket hotels, in my opinion these can be distilled in the following Top 3 Things Keep Me Awake at Night…

• Mainland Chinese – If tourism players or hotels believe the damage to Brand Phuket is over, think again. Talking to key tour operators there remains a hangover from last year’s boat sinking incident and travellers remain keenly concerned over safety. Only time and more concentrated promotion will see a return of the numbers.

• Growing Supply and Demand Imbalance – The current pipeline is just over 8,000 keys in development on the island. What’s more concerning is that projects in planning are not represented in this metric, and by our estimate there are approximately 5,000 more keys in planning. While both the pipeline and planning numbers will see some wash, the sum total exceeds current and forecasted demand.

Moreso, the rise of unlicensed condominiums, apartments, houses and villas is continuing unabated and is further exacerbating supply issues. Every time you see a group of tourists renting a 3 or 4 bedroom villa, that’s three or four hotel rooms that lay empty. Government control of unlicensed properties is a key issue facing Phuket’s tourism industry.

• Diminished Natural Resources and Strained Infrastructure – Water tops the list and there is little doubt we are reaching the tipping point with mounting shortages and soaring demand. Electricity is another concern. Lastly is a rising number of vehicles on the road, a urbanising trajectory and slow development of roads and public transport.

To these point’s lets revisit the hotel development pipeline and reflect that a island long term master plan, zoning for new tourism expansion and requirements for developers to invest in public infrastructure to obtain operating licenses is sorely lacking. Something has to give on this front.

In conclusion am I pessimistic about Phuket’s tourism and hotel future in 2019 and beyond? Absolutely not, direct airlinks are growing and the island has a well-structured capacity for handling tourism, but I firmly believe looking into our problems, discussing and finding ways to resolve these are critical to a sustainable growth pattern.

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‘Seastead’ set up off coast of Phuket

The Thaiger

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‘Seastead’ set up off coast of Phuket | The Thaiger

PHOTOS: Nation TV

A Thai couple has successfully set up a ‘Seastead’ near Phuket.

Seasteading is aiming to build floating societies with “significant political autonomy”. Nearly half the world’s surface is unclaimed by any nation-state, and many coastal nations can legislate “seasteads” in their territorial waters (like a “homestead” but wetter).

The nation TV reports that website ‘Bitcoin.com’ and ‘Ocean.builders’ report that the Thai couple Chad Elwartowski and Nadia Summergirl are are the first seasteaders who established a small seastead 12 nautical miles off Phuket.

Most of the construction of the Seasteading was built on the island of Phuket. The installation in the sea started on January 9.

Mr Elwartowski reveals that the reason that they have chosen to settle near Phuket as the construction price is cheap. The sea is suitable for the establishment as waves are not too high and can attract many tourists.

SOURCE: Nation TV

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