Climate change boosts flight turbulence, study warns

A recent study has revealed that climate change is causing an increase in turbulence during flights, with the situation expected to worsen. Clear-air turbulence, which is nearly invisible and difficult to detect with current equipment, has long been anticipated to increase as a result of climate change. The study from Reading University provides the most comprehensive analysis of this effect to date.

In the North Atlantic, one of the busiest flight routes globally, the total annual duration of severe turbulence rose by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. Moderate turbulence increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, while light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.

“Turbulence is everywhere in the atmosphere all the time,” explained Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist and co-author of the study. He added that climate change is causing fluctuations in temperatures, which disrupt the jet stream by suddenly altering wind speed or height, resulting in increased turbulence.

Professor Williams emphasised the importance of taking action to prevent flights from becoming even more turbulent in the future as global heating continues to rise. He suggested that improved forecasts and the use of LIDAR (light detecting and ranging) and RADAR on aircraft could help.

Flying contributes to climate change by releasing carbon dioxide and other harmful gases. Although aviation is responsible for just 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, it is expected to be one of the most challenging industries to reduce emissions due to the high cost and limited availability of alternative fuels and electric batteries.

As other sectors of the economy decarbonise, aviation’s share of emissions will likely increase. “I wouldn’t say we should fly less, but we certainly need to decarbonise flying rapidly. New forms of power will come online soon, and that can’t happen soon enough,” said Professor Williams.

Alethea Warrington, a senior campaigner at climate charity Possible, stated that the aviation industry should not be allowed to grow indefinitely. “This increase in potentially dangerous turbulence is another warning to the aviation industry that it will not be exempt from the harm caused by the climate crisis, which has already destroyed lives, livelihoods and landscapes around the world.”

Warrington added that truly zero-carbon flights are not expected to be available for decades. She suggested taxing frequent flying, ending airport expansion, and banning private jets as potential solutions.

The aviation industry argues that carbon emissions, rather than flying, are the primary issue. Airlines UK was not available for comment, but its CEO Tim Alderslade previously stated that a sustainable future for aviation is possible through the development of new, zero-emission technologies like hydrogen, upscaling and commercialising the use of sustainable aviation fuels, developing carbon markets and greenhouse gas removal technologies, and completing airspace modernisation.