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Poll – Will the Thai Baht rise or fall (compared to other currencies)?

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Poll – Will the Thai Baht rise or fall (compared to other currencies)? | The Thaiger
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Yesterday The Thaiger polled our Facebook readers asking them…

“Will the Thai baht continue to rise in value against many of the western currencies? Or has it peaked?”

Your responses were very mixed but the result was a slight leaning towards the baht dropping, but only by 52% to 48%, from 585 votes. Thanks for participating!

Here are few of the responses (edited) ….

• A currency will always peak at some occasions due to the economic safety of that country. But unfortunately a strong Baht will make exports to other countries more expensive which could lead to countries going to other countries where their money goes further. The Thai economy is also dependent on tourism which a strong Baht will lead to more expensive holidays for foreign tourists. This could also lead to a shrinking of the economy. – Graeme B

For a country that relies so heavily on tourism and exports, an over inflated, domestically propped up currency is a very risky fiscal strategy. There was a 5.8% drop in Thai exports in May, this is a HUGE number, and alarm bells should be well and truly ringing. A lot of people linked the fall of the GBP to Brexit…. Although not great for FX, the effect on British exports has been seismic. – Simon H

Scottie blamed the rise of the Thai baht on the ‘R’ word…

At the moment the west doesn’t want to use the R word. But that’s what it is, it’s a recession. It will get worse before it improves. – Scottie C

Matt links a lot of the local currency movement to China’s economy…

Depends if China keeps draining the world of money in trade. If they do, THB goes up. If world finally pushes back, there is a correction in Thailand. Sadly, Thailand is now one of the largest proxies for constant Chinese credit creation. Suvarnabhumi 2.0 is basically being built for China to come deliver money. – Matt S

Thailand is more expensive than the UK, many people how holidaying in Cambodia ?? and Vietnam ?? much more for your money. – David H

Anthony was perhaps closer to the truth…

I wish I knew. – Anthony L

And Malcolm gave an answer without giving an answer…

Watch this space, I am sure something will happen in the next six months, the question is what? – Malcolm N

The Thaiger will be conducting daily polls on our Facebook page. ‘Like’ us and join the conversation.

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Business

Will Pattaya bar customers want ID tracing and bar girls with masks and gloves?

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Will Pattaya bar customers want ID tracing and bar girls with masks and gloves? | The Thaiger
PHOTO: The Pattaya News

OPINION

Why do people travel to Pattaya? If it’s for the legendary bar scene, they’re going to be in for a surprise if proposed Covid-era measures are adopted. Likely it’s not going to be the ‘Pattaya’ they were expecting, or had been accustomed to in the past.

Social distancing (surely a phrase to be added to dictionaries from this year), limiting customers inside a bar, and bar workers with face masks and gloves, are just some of the proposed ideas for bars and nightclubs in the party town when they are finally allowed to re-open.

Understandably owners of the popular bars are desperate to lift up the shutters and entice the customers back into their familiar domain of expensive drinks, loud music and attractive hostesses. The large band of young female employees are also eager to welcome back the tourists. But the ‘new look’ bar and club scene may not be a turn on for the city’s expat crowd or future tourists.

In the suggested proposals, customers could also be asked to submit ID prior to entering a venue in case the information is needed for contact tracing in future. Screening checkpoints could also be set up at the entrances to popular haunts like Walking Street and Soi 6.

A meeting to discuss possible transition guidelines was held last Sunday at the Hollywood Club attended by representatives of Pattaya’s bar and nightclub scene, and officials from City Hall and the local police.

The meeting also discussed the possibilities of waiving various taxes and licensee fees. The issue of intransigent landlords who are still demanding full rent payments, was also discussed.

The seaside resort is facing a wipe-out scenario until some safe means of opening bars and clubs can be found. But that’s only the start of the recovery. At this stage there are no tourists and any early opening would only serve the city’s expat community or a trickle of domestic visitors.

The Thai government have closed all international airports for incoming passengers until at least the end of May and, beyond that, have not disclosed the conditions whereby they’d be willing to allow foreigners to return. Many of the Pattaya’s feeder markets for tourists are still in the midst of their own pandemic responses and are banning citizens from travel. Australians, for example, are being told it is unlikely to the government will allow international travel for the rest of this year. Airlines, meanwhile, remain largely grounded with their business models in tatters and many of the smaller, low-cost airlines facing closure.

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Coronavirus Thailand

54 Covid-19 deaths compared to 26,000 road deaths

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54 Covid-19 deaths compared to 26,000 road deaths | The Thaiger

OPINION

by Brian Hull, long-term expat

From time-to-time The Thaiger adds some different perspectives from guest posts. Expat Brian Hull gave us permission to repost his social media rant about the road deaths in Thailand, comparing them with the death toll from the Covid-19 outbreak.

Thailand, with a population of 67 million, has done a good job to date in keeping Covid-19 deaths to just 54. This begs the question of why nothing serious is ever done to tackle the annual road carnage of 26,000 deaths, which gives Thailand the distinction of being in the top six of the worst countries in the world.

Every accident is a tragedy but the biggest tragedy of all is that most of these could be prevented with proper police control.

I don’t know where the buck stops in the Thai bureaucratic blame game but it should be obvious to even a blind man where it starts – with the traffic police who are noted by their absence from the roads.

During six years of living in Thailand, not once have I seen a motor bike cop or police car stop anybody for anything. Their activities are confined to roadside checks for motorbike helmets and drivers’ licenses. While it is laudable, it does not require trained policemen to perform this function, it could be done by retired school teachers or librarians, and does nothing whatsoever to reduce road accidents.

For years, I have expressed my frustration, and fumed about Thailand not having proper road rules but to my surprise, when I did a test for a Thai Driver’s License, I discovered that sensible traffic regulations, similar to those in the West, are in place. The problem is that they are not enforced.

I think a basic road rule that applies in nearly all developed countries, including Thailand, is that a vehicle (whether car or motorbike) cannot pass another vehicle that is travelling in the same lane. So, all those motorbikes and scooters that are passing cars on either side of them, and snaking in and out of traffic, are breaking the law and creating mayhem.

This, and drink driving or speeding, are the major causes of accidents. If the police were to crack down on just this one rule there is no doubt in my mind that traffic accidents would be reduced by well over 50%.

At 10pm one night last year, with nothing better to do, I counted 250 traffic transgressions in the space of 15 minutes that were worthy of a fine. Any country in the world would have a traffic accident rate as dismal as Thailand’s if they did not have active police control, from the top down.

If senior Government officials are not capable of effectively managing their police force, or are just too lethargic and unmotivated, then they should be replaced, and if appropriate, face charges of Criminal Negligence.

What do you think of Brian’s thoughts? Comment on our Facebook page.

54 Covid-19 deaths compared to 26,000 road deaths

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Environment

Thailand’s wildlife is thriving in shutdown, but maybe not for long

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Thailand’s wildlife is thriving in shutdown, but maybe not for long | The Thaiger

by Ben Schaye

There have been a lot of viral news stories going around Thailand the last few weeks about the way wildlife is rebounding while humans are all hunkered down at home under Covid-19 lockdown. Dugongs (sea cows) have been seen frolicking off the coast of Trang, a pod of false killer whales appeared near Koh Lanta, and endangered leatherback sea turtles have been laying eggs on beaches in numbers not seen in years.

There is a serious threat toward wildlife looming though, and this drop in tourism can create its own problems for animals. While it’s great that the pressures of mass tourism have eased up on these creatures, if people don’t have work and income, that pressure will be replaced by poaching and unsustainable hunting.

Thailand is a solidly middle-income, developing country. Extreme poverty is low, and hunger is close to non-existent, or at least they were when times were good. Now with much of the economy shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus, millions of people are out of work and facing difficult times. If this goes on much longer, it’s not a question of if, but when some of those people will turn toward poaching, illegal hunting, and fishing with cyanide or even dynamite.

While high profile stories of poachers and land encroachers are often in the news in Thailand, the country actually does a lot to protect its marine and land-based ecosystems. In the last few years, popular islands and beaches such as Maya Bay have been closed indefinitely, while areas like the Similan and Surin Islands are closed for half the year to allow ecosystems to recover from humans.

Thailand’s national parks also offer habitat protection to thousands of species including thousands of wild elephants whose populations have finally stabilized after decades of decline.

All of this may be under threat from the effects of the economic shutdown. While marine and national parks have yet to see layoffs or budget cuts, that could change as budgets are strained across all government sectors. These parks and reserves typically have money flowing in each day from admission fees but have been closed now for around a month and counting. Any staff cuts would make it easier for poachers to sneak in and out of these areas, while pay cuts could tempt rangers to accept bribes, or become poachers themselves.

Unlike many other countries in Southeast Asia, Thailand has mostly done away with unsustainable fishing practices such as dynamite fishing or using cyanide to poison waters and kill fish. These practices that were once widespread have become quite rare due to a combination of strong enforcement and better education, but a cratering economy might threaten these gains. Desperation may lead people back into such unsustainable methods, and few things cause as much desperation as not having enough food to feed your family.

The solution to this problem needs to address the short and the long term. For now, Thailand needs to provide a way for its citizens to meet their basic needs. They also need to ensure that wildlife protection officials are still on the job and still being paid to patrol and keep poachers out.

In the longer term, there are lessons to be learned from the way wildlife is thriving right now while tourism is practically non-existent. More beaches and islands may need to be closed off, at least for temporary periods of time. There may also be value in closing off open areas of the ocean to boat traffic so that wildlife can gather there undisturbed.

There is a constant give and take between sustainability and economic development. Tourism is a crucial part of the Thai economy, and closing off too many areas will inevitably hurt locals and the broader industry. However, not doing enough will mortgage the future and ultimately be even more painful. Let’s hope the government can get this right. For now, we all need to come together to help out our neighbors and our communities. Meanwhile, let’s hope the animals enjoy their own little holiday in Thailand away from the stresses of ordinary life.

Ben has a blog at It’s Better In Thailand

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