Connect with us

Business

Finance: Hold on to stocks, more rallies are coming

Legacy Phuket Gazette

Published 

 on 

Finance: Hold on to stocks, more rallies are coming | The Thaiger
  • follow us in feedly

PHUKET: The past one and a half years have been anything but a smooth ride for investors, given that the market’s seen two rapid 10 to 15 per cent pullbacks, and we’ve seen entire sectors (such as biotech, oil, industrials) and so on take some hard knocks.

For investors exposed to unlucky sectors, it’s been difficult to keep pace with the S&P 500’s performance, as bad news or uncertainty (such as plummeting oil prices, European debt crisis, uncertainty in China, Federal Reserve rate hikes, US elections jitters and increasingly deadly terror attacks in western countries) largely overshadow any positive news (such as steady progress in the US economy, a more benign Federal Reserve, market-friendly policies from overseas central banks, oil price stability and a sound bottom formation).

Positive price action of US and global stocks is showing us the bull market is still alive, climbing a wall of worry built by the news media, with no shortage of sectors and leadership stocks emerging on a weekly basis.

However, stock market price action is improving, new leadership stocks appear ready to take off. The struggling S&P 500 Index has once again reached new record highs. On the other hand, the stock market, bonds and gold have spent much of July rallying at the same time. This makes for a confusing mess for investors, as all three are not supposed to be rallying at once, because gold and bonds are considered to be more defensive or safe havens from the riskier stock market.

Here is a quick rundown of the latest price action for the sectors I am watching.

The S&P 500 has broken out of its near two-year consolidation pattern and has had roughly two weeks of new highs (or at least staying above its pre-breakout price level), but we need to remain cautious as another pullback is still possible.

The Dow Jones has also broken to new highs on broad-based buying pressure while the NASDAQ has finally cleared is big January plunge. The NASDAQ’s recent performance is especially important and is due in part to leadership stocks forming in the tech sector, but there are still two previous highs that the index needs to clear.

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA: XBI) was absolutely slaughtered during the last two-year period, but it looks to be finally bottoming. This bodes well for the NASDAQ.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSE ARCA: EEM) and iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FXI) have bottoming formations on their technical charts that are starting to look pretty solid. Both have also broken out without a pull back – another positive sign.

The Technology SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLK) has been hitting higher highs while the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA: SMH) hit a higher low back in January and also after Brexit, before powering ahead in recent weeks. Semiconductors are leading the US markets higher – very important to see this.

The iShares North American Tech-Software ETF (NYSE-ARCA:IGV) has also broken out and hit an all time high.

The iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSEAR-CA:IYT) tracks a very economically sensitive sector and could be on the verge of breaking higher. If IYT were to instead rollover and retrace Brexit lows – something that appears unlikely at the moment – that would tell me that a recession could be coming.

There are a number of sectors and individual stocks still fighting to reach their old highs while defensive gold has begun to weaken and pull back a bit. Given that the Dow and S&P 500 have both hit new highs, there is a good chance for most sectors and many individual stocks to follow. Moreover, my 17 years of money management experience tells me that when markets are at new all-time highs with strong price action (like we have been seeing), there are long-term opportunities for investors.

My personal feeling though is that the market is not going to pull back much, but will instead keep rallying, with most sectors hitting all of those old highs again. Any pullback that does manifest will likely be bought, as many institutions are sitting on high cash levels and are missing out on the rally. Stay diversified in the top industry groups, sectors and leading stocks and remain patient.

Don Freeman, BSME, is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket. He has over 15 years experience working with expatriates, specializing in portfolio management, US tax preparation, financial planning and UK pension transfers. Call for a free portfolio review. Don can be reached at 089-970 5795 or email freeman capital@gmail.com.

— Don Freeman

Keep in contact with The Thaiger by following our Facebook page.

Never miss out on future posts by following The Thaiger.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Archiving articles from the Phuket Gazette circa 1998 - 2017. View the Phuket Gazette online archive and Digital Gazette PDF Prints.

Business

Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO

The Thaiger

Published

on

Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO | The Thaiger

When the airlines, in particular, were asking the government to put their hands in their pockets for some relief funding in August last year, it was genuinely thought that international tourists would be coming back for the high season in December and January. At the very least local tourists and expats would head back to the skies over the traditional holiday break. And surely the Chinese would be back for Chinese New Year?

As we know now, none of that happened. A resurge in cases started just south of Bangkok on December 20 last year, just before Christmas, kicking off another round of restrictions, pretty much killing off any possibility of a high season ‘bump’ for the tourist industry. Airlines slashed flights from their schedule, and hotels, which had dusted off their reception desks for the surge of tourists, shut their doors again.

Domestically, the hotel business saw 6 million room nights in the government’s latest stimulus campaign fully redeemed. But the air ticket quota of 2 million seats still has over 1.3 million seats unused. Local tourists mostly skipped flights and opted for destinations within driving distance of their homes.

As for international tourism… well that still seems months or years away, even now.

Keep in contact with The Thaiger by following our Facebook page.

Never miss out on future posts by following The Thaiger.

Continue Reading

Business

Domestic air passenger numbers double those of January

Maya Taylor

Published

on

Domestic air passenger numbers double those of January | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Vietjet

Passenger numbers on domestic flights within Thailand have doubled within a month, rising from 4,000 in January to over 10,000 this month. Having nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels, domestic travel plummeted once more when Covid-19 resurfaced late last year.

Apirat Chaiwongnoi from the Department of Airports says 15 of Thailand’s 29 airports are now operating domestic flights, with more expected to follow. He believes the aviation sector will continue to recover further in the coming 6 months, bolstered by the national vaccine rollout.

Around 120 domestic flights a day are now operating, which is twice the number that were operating at the lowest point in the crisis. Prior to the resurgence of the virus in December, domestic passenger numbers had recovered to 30,000 – 40,000 a day, around 80% of pre-pandemic numbers.

The DoA says airports must continue to adhere to the Covid-19 hygiene measures put in place by the Health Ministry and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

Keep in contact with The Thaiger by following our Facebook page.

Never miss out on future posts by following The Thaiger.

Continue Reading

Coronavirus (Covid-19)

Samut Sakhon’s shrimp market to remain closed until February 15

Avatar

Published

on

Samut Sakhon’s shrimp market to remain closed until February 15 | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Kom Chad Luek

Samut Sakhon’s Central Shrimp Market, the epicentre of Thailand’s recent wave of Covid-19, will remain closed until February 15. The market can reopen once the overall hygiene situation at the market and surrounding area has improved, according to the province’s disease control committee.

Local officials say the shrimp market needs to remain closed until the market structure and nearby residential facilities are inspected. People who violate the order face up to a year in prison and a fine up to 100,000 baht.

More than 12,000 people in the province have tested positive for Covid-19. The increasing number of infections is a result from the active case finding to contain the spread of the virus.

SOURCE: Thai PBS World | Thairath Online

Keep in contact with The Thaiger by following our Facebook page.

Never miss out on future posts by following The Thaiger.

Continue Reading
Phuket Thai food treats you need to try | VIDEO | The Thaiger
Tourism2 days ago

Phuket Thai food treats you need to try | VIDEO

Thailand News Today | Bars, pubs and restaurants ‘sort of’ back to normal | Feb 23 | The Thaiger
Thailand2 days ago

Thailand News Today | Bars, pubs and restaurants ‘sort of’ back to normal | Feb 23

In search of Cat & Dog Cafés in Phuket Town | VIDEO | The Thaiger
Tourism2 days ago

In search of Cat & Dog Cafés in Phuket Town | VIDEO

Thailand News Today | Gambling crackdown, Seafood market to reopen, Vlogger challenge | Jan 21 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Gambling crackdown, Seafood market to reopen, Vlogger challenge | Jan 21

Thailand News Today | Covid testing for visas, Business impact, Vaccine approval | January 19 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Covid testing for visas, Business impact, Vaccine approval | January 19

Thailand News Today | Weekend Bangkok bombs, Thailand fires, Covid update | January 18 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Weekend Bangkok bombs, Thailand fires, Covid update | January 18

Thailand News Today | Stray car on runway, Indonesian quake, 300 baht tourist fee | January 15 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Stray car on runway, Indonesian quake, 300 baht tourist fee | January 15

Thailand News Today | Governor off respirator, sex-trafficking arrest, condo prices falling | January 14 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Governor off respirator, sex-trafficking arrest, condo prices falling | January 14

Thailand News Today | Chinese vaccine, Thailand ‘drug hub’, Covid update | January 13 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Chinese vaccine, Thailand ‘drug hub’, Covid update | January 13

Thailand News Today | Bangkok may ease restrictions, Phuket bar curfew, Vaccine roll out | January 12 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Bangkok may ease restrictions, Phuket bar curfew, Vaccine roll out | January 12

Thailand News Today | Covid latest, Cockfights closed down, Bryde’s Whale beached | January 11 | The Thaiger
Thailand1 month ago

Thailand News Today | Covid latest, Cockfights closed down, Bryde’s Whale beached | January 11

Thailand News Today | Southern floods, Face mask fines, Thai Air Asia woes | January 8 | The Thaiger
Thailand2 months ago

Thailand News Today | Southern floods, Face mask fines, Thai Air Asia woes | January 8

Thailand News Today | 305 infections, No happy ending for massages, Phuket quarantine mooted | Jan 7 | The Thaiger
Thailand2 months ago

Thailand News Today | 305 infections, No happy ending for massages, Phuket quarantine mooted | Jan 7

Thailand News Today | 10,000 schools closed, 900 new migrant infections, Gambling crackdown | January 6 | The Thaiger
Thailand2 months ago

Thailand News Today | 10,000 schools closed, 900 new migrant infections, Gambling crackdown | January 6

Thailand News Today | PM reverses lockdown, Southern P.D.A. crackdown, Covid update | Jan 5 | The Thaiger
Thailand2 months ago

Thailand News Today | PM reverses lockdown, Southern P.D.A. crackdown, Covid update | Jan 5

Follow The Thaiger by email:

Trending