Bangkok condo prices expected to continue to fall this year

18 Comments

1. 

   EdwardV

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 12:05 pm

   Thailand has an inverted population pyramid, one of the few in SE Asia. Because of that, there will be downward pressure on the housing market for decades to come. Any rebound will be shallow and short lived, probably 2022 and maybe 2023 but that’s it. In my opinion it’s not a good long term investment.

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   • 

     Ted

     Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 12:50 pm

     True, I feel same.

     C19 only helped start the repricing of the really inflated condo [and house] market prices.
     Let’s just hope that Thailand, and Eastern Asia as a whole, will not have to go through yet another major financial crisis –other than, what is directly cased by C19. But the risk is there, for sure, be sure that the lenders wants its money back, from the developers who can’t sell their “dreams” to make a profit to continue being profitable customers to the big banks. Will the hamster collapse beside the wheel or just get sick of the momentum of nothing happening *smile*

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   • 

     Mr cynic

     Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 8:47 pm

     Be interesting to see how much the condo prices at the major holiday resort’s fall as they were way over priced due to never ending speculation pre crisis anyway.
     Not be in the least bit surprised to see initial falls of 50 percent perhaps more.

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2. 

   J West

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 12:16 pm

   Prices will command what the local market supports. Right now there is no bottom in sight due to poor macro-economic conditions for locals. Ergo, prices must fall. Supply/Demand is Economics 101. There’s no escaping it.

   Developers dreaming about a return to the hey-day of Chinese speculators are being unrealistic. Debt moratorium is not coming. Thailand’s Central Bank could never afford to bail out every developer with an outstanding and overdue loan. It would bankrupt the country…..again.

   Deflation is an ugly thing for debtors, and some developers whose loans are due and remain unmet will have to fold. In the end, a reset of the market will be healthy overall. This is at the very heart of free market capitalism.

   I have a suggestion. There would likely be an increase in the sales of high end Single Family Houses if foreigners with long term residency were allowed to own the land under which thier home sits and be afforded rights and long term security.

   Many, who have been here ten and twenty years, would buy a SFH and resent being limited to condominium and leasehold restrictions. Fine, continue denying land ownership to short term foreign speculators but allow long term residents the right to own.

   Otherwise, long term resident professionals and business persons will continue to avoid investing in the property market. The retrospective oversupply of condominiums was a disaster in the making, while macro economic conditions were blindsided by Covid. Black swans.

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3. 

   Maag

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 2:36 pm

   5% + 5% + 5% + 5% + 5% + 5%……
   Should more realistic !

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4. 

   Toby Andrews

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 2:53 pm

   As members are using metaphors quoting hamsters and swans, I will contribute one.
   The dying Thai property values will cause the Thai banks, property owners, and developers to look like Siamese cats chewing Birds eye peppers..
   .
   .
   .lol

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5. 

   Icecream licker

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 5:39 pm

   5%.. that’s funny. Try 50%… then try another 50%… and maybe anther 50%… prices will bottom some where at 10% pf current prices. And, the real bonus, the recovery will be led by purchses made in precious metals and crypto currency as fiat money dies this decade.

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   • 

     J West

     Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 7:01 pm

     When property prices start falling, they can continue to fall for …years….it’s entirely cyclical. ” The death of a thousand cuts”, it’s sometimes referred to as. Paying a mortgage for a decade or three on a property which has lost half its value in an environment where taxes and maintenance costs on an ageing building increase constantly to fund inflation indexed status quo social services is painful….ex : Japan.

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6. 

   Matk

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 8:04 pm

   Hilarious to see developers with their offices on Rama 4 and Sukhumvit trying to sell their junk quality condos that haven’t been built yet for millions of baht.. surely Thais aren’t stupid enough to fall for it.. even with a offer iPhone thrown in.

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7. 

   Ben

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 10:02 pm

   I can’t think of anything more illiquid than a Bangkok condo. Buy one if you’re going to live there for a long long long time. Otherwise rent and invest in something else.

   My brother talked about buying one for years and retiring there. I asked him:

   -What happens if you need to sell and can’t?
   -What happens if you meet a new woman and need to move?
   -What happens if you have serious health problems and need to go back to the USA?

   A local Thai told me land is a much better investment since supply is finite. I understand Thai’s don’t want to open up land sales to foreigners because they’re afraid they’ll buy up all the choice plots and it’ll skyrocket real estate prices putting it out of reach for local Thai’s. That’s cool. But I won’t be investing there.

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   • 

     Mel Burn

     Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 11:34 pm

     What happens if you just cannot get a visa? Like during this pandemic

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   • 

     Don jones

     Saturday, January 16, 2021 at 3:31 pm

     Plus the mighty baht is at least 20% overvalued

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8. 

   Mel Burn

   Thursday, January 14, 2021 at 11:32 pm

   Unless Thailand will start giving residentship for real estate and other investments like many other countries – it’s pretty dumb to buy condos in Thailand – you can be refused entry and kicked out anytime.

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   • 

     J West

     Friday, January 15, 2021 at 10:50 am

     Aren’t thousands of retired Farang still waiting to return to thier condos after failing to get a visa renewal when the Sept 26 deadline booted so many? There’s a saying…” Not with a ten foot pole” , make that fifty for me.

     Thai say “ easy to buy, hard to sell”.

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   • 

     Mr cynic

     Friday, January 15, 2021 at 11:28 am

     Nothing to stop them cancelling permanent residence at an instant either.
     Unless you are a citizen of the country the risk will always be present.

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9. 

   Leo Z

   Friday, January 15, 2021 at 12:21 am

   To people here who predict the demise of the BKK real estate market, the article itself is a hint to the opposite. Juwai is a Chinese company, it literally means “live abroad”. Guess who they market to.

   Now, combine that previous guess with the fact that these same people want to get their money out of China ASAP, due to more restrictive/dictatorial conditions at home. Also combine all of the above with the fact that these same people only know and trust real estate investing.

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10. 

    norbert BUFFARD

    Friday, January 15, 2021 at 3:45 am

    Thailand real estate price has been over inflated for so many years. The cost of a condominium or house is totally disengage from the average wages. The price in Thailand have been manipulated by overseas investors such as CHINA, Singapore,Japan who regulate the real estate price in BKK. Therefore for a price fall to benefit the average Thai, the average price need to fall by 35-40%

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    • 

      Don jones

      Saturday, January 16, 2021 at 3:33 pm

      Plus the baht being fiddled with by the BOT

      Reply