Finance Ministry expected to adjust 2022 economic forecast from next month

The Finance Ministry will adjust the 2022 forecast for Thailand’s economic growth to focus on the rise in both inflation and energy prices, from next month. According to an unnamed Bangkok Post source, the ministry is concerned about the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on overseas arrivals this year.

At the start of the year, the ministry had forecast that the economy would grow by between 3.5 and 4.5% this year, projecting average growth of 4%. The ministry based its calculations on the expectation that domestic spending would increase as the Covid-19 situation improved globally. The ministry also forecast that private consumption would grow by 4.5% this year, that Thailand would welcome 7 million foreign tourists, and that exports would grow by 3.6%.

In February, Thailand’s exports grew by 16.2% compared to the same time last year, which the commerce minister said was more than expected. According to the Bangkok Post’s source, global credit rating agency Moody’s will assess Thailand’s rating next month. Last year, S&P Global Ratings upheld Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+, with the American credit rating agency ranking the outlook for the country’s economy as stable.

The Thai government has borrowed significantly during the pandemic – around 1.5 trillion baht over the last 2 years – but the Finance Ministry is confident the country can still manage this debt. During the first 5 months of the fiscal year 2022, the government collected 911 billion baht in net revenue, exceeding its target by 46 billion baht, according to the report.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post