Thailand’s 2020 exports to fall 500 billion baht

There is no doubt Thailand’s fragile export business is gong to be hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak. Following on from the impacts of the high Thai baht value, regional competition and the fallout from the US-China trade wars, Thailand is poised for one of its worst performing export years.

“Under the worst-case scenario in which the coronavirus Covid-19 crisis exceeds 9 months (to September 2020), the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce is forecasting exports could contract by as much as 7.1% this year, with the actual export value shrinking US$17.42 billion USD, or 557.72 billion baht.”

This from Aat Pisanwanich, the director of the Centre for International Trade Studies at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

“The impact of the outbreak alone is expected to cause Thai export value to decrease by 13.48 billion USD.”

“Thailand’s exports to the Chinese market are projected to drop by 1.2-13.5% this year to US$24.5 – 28 billion, the lowest it has been in six years.”

“Agro-industrial products are expected to see the most impact from the coronavirus crisis. The outbound shipments of this sector may decrease by 5.4-30% or US$299 million, products that are in risks include vegetable oil, beverages, canned and processed fruits, canned and processed vegetables, and canned and processed seafood.”

“ASEAN countries are forecasted to see the biggest decrease in export market value down by 5 billion USD, followed by Hong Kong down US$4 billion, Japan down US$3 billion, China down US$2 billion, Europe down US$1 billion and the US down $1 billion.”

The main factors resulting in Thailand’s export contraction with China include decreasing the income of Chinese citizens and the ban on foreigners entering the country.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post