10 new Covid-19 cases detected in quarantine, all reported as asymptomatic
Thailand health officials reported 10 new Cvoid-19 cases detected mandatory state quarantine for those entering the country, adding up the total number of reported cases to 3,600. All cases were reported as asymptomatic at the time the results were confirmed. The cases came from Hong Kong, the United States, Kuwait and Russia, according to the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration. 7 of the new cases are Thai nationals returning home.
- 3 Thai women, all 23 years old, tested positive for Covid-19 after returning home from the United States where they worked at hotels. They arrived to Thailand on September 29 and tested positive 5 days after during their quarantine period in Chon Buri.
- 3 people travelling from Hong Kong tested positive for Covid-19. 2 of them were Thai men, 31 years old and 40 years old, who arrived on September 23 and tested positive 11 days after later while in quarantine in Samut Prakan. The 2 men were on the same flight as 3 others who tested positive in earlier tests. The other case from Hong Kong is a 22 year old who worked at an entertainment venue. She arrived on September 29 and tested positive in her first test while quarantined in Bangkok. She was sent to the Central Chest Institute of Thailand in Nonthaburi.
- 2 people travelling from Kuwait tested positive for Covid-19. A 38 year old Thai worker flew in on September 22 and tested positive 12 days after later while in quarantine in Chon Buri. He was on the same flight as 3 others who tested positive in earlier tests. The other case is a 61 year old Kuwait man who arrived on Saturday and tested positive while at an alternative state quarantine facility in Bangkok. He was sent to a private hospital in Bangkok.
- 2 people travelling from Russia tested positive for Covid-19. The Russian man and woman arrived on September 28 and tested positive 5 days later. They were on the same flight as another person who tested positive in an earlier test. The 51 year old man tested positive while at an alternative state quarantine facility in Samut Prakan and was later admitted to a private hospital in Nonthaburi. The 42 year old woman tested positive while in an alternative state quarantine facility in Bangkok and then was sent to a local private hospital.
Out of the 3,600 reported Covid-19 cases in Thailand, health officials report 3,390 recoveries and 59 deaths.
SOURCE: Bangkok Post
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21 Comments
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Mmmm, all asymptomatic. So that’s 10 out of 10 having no ill effects from the virus.
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yeap, like in Finland now everyday new cases but hospitals are in normal state, no emergency no real threat. This all is just big lie…
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… and 10 out of 10 who, if the results are correct, could unknowingly infect others.
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Nobody from the UK.good sign.
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nobody from the UK…good…because we are all being tested in uk before we arrive…
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Not in these 10, but in others.
Sorry, that argument simply doesn’t hold up.
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The key sentence said “All cases were reported as asymptomatic at the time the results were confirmed.”
The PCR and RT-PCR tests quite often yield falso positive results. They can pickup previous flu shots as positive. If you had the flu in past few years you can show positive for CV. Even the common cold can trigger a positive.
TEST THE TESTS!
Too many NOT sick people are being quarantined. Thailand persists in scaring the public with “infected returnees” when many or maybe all are the result of inaccurate tests.
TEST THE TESTS! -
The “TESTS” have already been tested, extensively.
As is widely known and accepted, they vary between 93 and 97% accurate, with both false positives AND false negatives – they are simply all that is currently available.
If those arriving were only tested on arrival, as has often been suggested, that would mean that around 40 on each flight would have a false reading (potentially negative when they are positive). By testing during and after quarantine as well, the chances of those 40 false readings still being false is minimised. 3% (or 3 in a hundred) is reduced to under 0.003 (or less than 3 in a hundred thousand).
No, “too many NOT sick people” are NOT “being quarantined” unnecessarily or for an extra period.
This is simply untrue and a misunderstanding of the system.
Nobody testing positive is given an ‘additional’ period of quarantine. Their standard 14 days is simply spent under closer medical observation and under stricter control.
That’s all. Nothing more.
The tests are simply not accurate enough yet for anything else to be safe – WHAT BETTER ALTERNATIVE IS THERE? Genuine question.
Other countries (a few) rely on random testing or (a minority) on just testing on arrival, but that simply can’t (and doesn’t) work and the results speak for themselves. The tests simply aren’t good enough.
If Thailand opened it’s borders to all as before, even if it tested everyone on arrival and only quarantined those testing positive that would still mean over one million (3% of the 40 million tourists) false readings and so some one million imported Covid-19 cases every year.
Do you, or those suggesting the restrictions are eased, seriously think Thailand could cope with a million imported cases a year?
Or the 30,000 deaths out of that million (Covid-19 has a 3% fatality rate) just in the ‘first round’ before anyone else was infected?
That isn’t “scaring the public” for no reason – it’s just basic common sense, as most countries have realised.
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The majority of false negatives come from swab tests and are the result of poor administration. If the sample is not taken from right at the back of the nose and throat which are uncomfortable to say the least, then there is a high risk of not detecting the virus. Thus a false negative.
False positives, Glen is absolutely correct. They essentially come from a previous infection. If you have had Covid and recovered, asymptomatic or not. You can and do host dead virus cells that will simply show existence on the test. There is every chance that this will still happen after we have a vaccine. But I believe the test will then be altered to look for the T-cells that the vaccine will need to produce. They are the cells that recognise the virus and generate a response.
If Thailand does not balance its economy then there will be much bigger problems ahead. Yet to be confirmed, because it may be fake news (I have mailed the editor to see if he has any confirmation) but I heard last night that Honda, Toyota, Samsung and Toshiba along with other big names are starting to pull out of Thailand and re-establish in Vietnam. If that is happening it will be a major financial loss to Thailand and they are all Asean companies.
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Where do you get your numbers from?? Who are you to speculate when you say “Thailand could not cope with a million imported cases a year”?? Are you a scientist? Cause your reactions (here as before with other comments) are irrationally driven by fear. Maybe more and more people do not want to live their lives anymore like you do, in fear, including Thai people.
“As is widely known and accepted, they vary between 93 and 97% accurate”.. This is a complete misinformation you are giving us here… Let the scientists dealing with the numbers and data, what you are doing (copying I would say without any rational thinking) here is what many governments all over the world are doing, interpreting wrongly real numbers to put fear in their populations (why? I guess history will tell eventually…or maybe not). The percentage of inaccuracy is FAR higher than your numbers (at least 50% in some many cases), countless of scientists, professors and doctors are voicing their alarming opinions more loudly about this (do the work yourself this time, look for real informations). And this is (OBVIOUSLY) the main reason why in many countries, notably in Europe, the numbers of cases are rising (but not the number of deaths – not to mention that in many cases, people who died with the virus did not dies FROM the virus but still counted within). The other one being (also obviously) because they are testing 1000 times (figure of speech of course, the number varies from country to country, the point being it is far much higher) than previously.
Finally: are you over 65 or 70? if yes, do you have kids? If yes, do they also have kids? (I ask you but I mean of course to demonstrate a REAL fact here…nothing to do with you) So you want to keep Thailand and the world sealed so (your) children (people) sacrifice their children (your grand children) for a tiny (TINY) percentage of elderlies (you) who are in the vast majority of cases already very ill? Because now, the worst of the pandemic behind us (yes hardly anyone is dying from it now whether you like or not – a pandemic with hardly any people dying from the disease is NOT a pandemic), that is why is happening. So (your) people will loose their jobs, putting their kids (your grand kids) in a position of poverty with all other diseases that it will eventually include (physical and mental). Do you want these grand kids to live in fear like you for years, suffering 12 hours a day in school with their stupid masks on (please read about the effects on wearing a mask for so long everyday, plenty of scientific litterature out there)? What about freedom to choose to do what you feel right for yourself and your familly instead of doing what a goverment or else is telling you and basta???
What makes you think that the elderlies in Thailand want that for their kids and grand kids????
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Is that the same Finland that only considers tourists arriving from four countries to be ‘low risk’, with two of those countries being Lichtenstein and the Vatican City, neither of which have airports?
The same Finland that has a Covid-19 fatality rate of over 4.25% in its hospitals that are apparently in a “normal state”, which is 50% higher than the global average?
That has a low population density of 19 people per sq km, compared to 137 per sq km in Thailand?
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@Isaan John, I just wanted to provide some additional context to how PCR tests work, it’s not simply a matter of “positive” or “negative”. What Glenn may be referring to is the number of cycles Thailand labs are using for the test and that many of these “positive” test results may be in the 30+ cycle range which the scientific community largely agrees is a level that would detect dead fragments (non contagious). An excerpt from a recent article in The NY Times I think succinctly describes the issue:
“ The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.
In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.
On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing.
One solution would be to adjust the cycle threshold used now to decide that a patient is infected. Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.
Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said.”
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Issan John …. You are tha man – all-knowing? I don’t think so ?.
You are a fraud – non-Thai – Obvious Foreigner – what are your values?
Gimme a break – fatalities rates for ci=ovid etc etc etc. – who knows this as of now?
Open up Thailand as to alleviate the monetary suffering – while playing it safe.Will this. work for you Isaan Jonh and the rest of the doubters – If not Thailand will go into the stone ages economy wise
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Not even remotely “all knowing”, but I don’t think accepting figures from the WHO, John Hopkins, etc, rather than something plucked out of the sky by someone commenting here makes me “a fraud”!
… and ‘yes’ obviously a foreigner, although I’ve lived here for nearly thirty years.
My values? Well, human life comes pretty high on the scale – certainly rather higher than sacrificing other people’s lives wholesale just so some people can enjoy a cheap holiday and others can make a profit.
“Open up Thailand as to alleviate the monetary suffering – while playing it safe.”
I couldn’t agree with you more, and I only wish it was possible, but how do you do that?
HOW?
How is it possible to do both?
If you have the answer, then how about telling not just Thailand but all the other countries that have similarly closed their borders, from Japan to Taiwan, New Zealand to Cambodia, Canada to Vietnam?
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO DO BOTH?
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Agreed, as with Bobby m, but the problem remains that for whatever the reason the tests are only 93 to 97% reliable.
An acknowledged failure rate of 3%, at best, means that without a 14 day quarantine period and re-testing during it and after you face some 20 people coming in to the country who are infected and carriers even if asymptomatic. There’s simply no getting round that.
Quarantine for 14 days and re-test, though, and you reduce that by a factor of 1,000.
As I’ve asked repeatedly, here and elsewhere, WHAT BETTER ALTERNATIVE IS THERE?
Thailand isn’t on its own here, as seems to be the suggestion. Most countries world-wide, from Taiwan to New Zealand and Japan to Canada have imposed similar or stronger border restrictions.
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There is an alternative. Handle it like you should handle a serious Influenza epidemic/pandemic (mostly pandemic because it spreads over the world periodically quite predictable too but noone calls it that). Why? Because symptoms, illness and after effects are all very similar. Every doom story you read about covid applies directly to influenza too. Just google the reported issue and add influenza to the search. Same same. If you put a virus into a constant spotlight and overreport you will keep finding it. The world has gone completely mental in 2020. Covid is put in the same category as Ebola which is completely bullocks. In The Netherlands alone a medic group with support of 1000+ official and registered doctors and medic professionals tries to critize whats going on but gets no media attention. Why? Cause news is produced by a few global press agencies and bad news sells. Destroying economies for a mild virus. I guess the global money makers needed a correction in some values? Idk but one thing I do know: this virus is severely and dangerously overrated. All proportionally thinking went out of the window right away. First let it spread, then act as an headless chicken.
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“… same same … very similar (to influenza) …”
Well … very similar apart from the fatality rate if you catch it, which is 3% globally – 8% in Holland.
“… a mild virus” ? For some, but not so “mild” for the 8 in every 100 in Holland who’ve caught it, and died as a direct result.
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Where do you get these numbers from? It is estimated that the real number of infected people are many times what the official numbers show (e.g. non tested asymptomatic cases) – e.g. the fatality rate is extremly low compared to the number of total people protracting sars-cov-2. In the end when this is over and the statistics can be made it might actually end up not beeing so much higher than the mortality rate of other corona viruses. The people beeing tested are those who actually have symptoms and get sick – implicitly this could mean that the “official” IFR rates are a lot higher than the actual number. The IFR rate by july in Switzerland was between 0.6% to 5.6% depending on age, where the 5.6% was for old people above 65. The IFR have been declining steadily. We had a surge in infections in norway recently, but very few have been hospitalized (currently 24 in hospitals due sars-cov-2). How many do you think are hospitalized due to the normal seasonal flu? If you had sars-cov-2 post mortem it is counted as death by covid-19 – which give also contributes to higher IFR rates. Now if you die at age 90 with several other conditions and test post mortem positive for covid19 – did you die WITH covid19 or from covid19? We will know in 1-2 years, we might have robbed future generations with how this was handled around the world. Should we priortize the old ones who have lived their lives at the cost of our childrens future welfare? Tough choice with no right answer, and for developing nations the question is even tougher.
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To follow up on your insane numbers for fatality rate, quoting estimates on IFR from Office for National Statisics and Medical Research Centre in the UK:
“In both cases, we observe an estimated IFR that falls over time, with estimates derived from ONS data higher than those from the MRC data.
ONS figures imply an IFR as of 4 August estimated at 0.49% (ONS 95% Credible interval, 0.36% to 0.67%).”
This article presents data from two models estimating daily infections in England, deriving recent IFRs estimates of 0.30% using the MRC unit’s data and 0.49% using ONS data
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What a seriously bizarre, self-contradicting comment.
“Where do you get your numbers from??”
Which particular “numbers”? Those I’ve given are from the WHO, John Hopkins, etc. All widely sourced and all in very close agreement.
“Who are you to speculate when you say “Thailand could not cope with a million imported cases a year”?? Are you a scientist?”
Are you seriously suggesting Thailand could?
Plus the million local cases, assuming R1 which is way beyond unlikely except in a strict lockdown?Please …..
“… interpreting wrongly real numbers”
Ummm …..
“The percentage of inaccuracy is FAR higher than your numbers (at least 50% in some many cases),…”
Quite possibly, but if correct that would only make things ten times WORSE !!!
“Because now, the worst of the pandemic behind us (yes hardly anyone is dying from it now whether you like or not – a pandemic with hardly any people dying from the disease is NOT a pandemic), that is why is happening.”
“… hardly anyone”? Really? The death rate has been steady, with the occasional spike, since mid-May. Possibly not on your planet, though…
“No” to pretty well all your remaining questions, which is precisely why I’m in favour of keeping the borders secure until a solution (test / vaccine / cure) is found.
“What about freedom to choose to do what you feel right for yourself and your familly instead of doing what a goverment or else is telling you and basta???”
What about it? Fine, as long as your “freedom to choose to do what you feel right for yourself and your familly” doesn’t affect others.
Unfortunately it does. -
I have a simple explanation for these declarations of new contagious foreigners.
I do not think they have the virus.
Thai hospitals want to make money out of treating them.
Do the contagious people ever have chance of a second opinion. I doubt it.
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Mmmm, all asymptomatic. So that’s 10 out of 10 having no ill effects from the virus.
yeap, like in Finland now everyday new cases but hospitals are in normal state, no emergency no real threat. This all is just big lie…
… and 10 out of 10 who, if the results are correct, could unknowingly infect others.
Nobody from the UK.good sign.
nobody from the UK…good…because we are all being tested in uk before we arrive…
Not in these 10, but in others.
Sorry, that argument simply doesn’t hold up.
The key sentence said “All cases were reported as asymptomatic at the time the results were confirmed.”
The PCR and RT-PCR tests quite often yield falso positive results. They can pickup previous flu shots as positive. If you had the flu in past few years you can show positive for CV. Even the common cold can trigger a positive.
TEST THE TESTS!
Too many NOT sick people are being quarantined. Thailand persists in scaring the public with “infected returnees” when many or maybe all are the result of inaccurate tests.
TEST THE TESTS!
The “TESTS” have already been tested, extensively.
As is widely known and accepted, they vary between 93 and 97% accurate, with both false positives AND false negatives – they are simply all that is currently available.
If those arriving were only tested on arrival, as has often been suggested, that would mean that around 40 on each flight would have a false reading (potentially negative when they are positive). By testing during and after quarantine as well, the chances of those 40 false readings still being false is minimised. 3% (or 3 in a hundred) is reduced to under 0.003 (or less than 3 in a hundred thousand).
No, “too many NOT sick people” are NOT “being quarantined” unnecessarily or for an extra period.
This is simply untrue and a misunderstanding of the system.
Nobody testing positive is given an ‘additional’ period of quarantine. Their standard 14 days is simply spent under closer medical observation and under stricter control.
That’s all. Nothing more.
The tests are simply not accurate enough yet for anything else to be safe – WHAT BETTER ALTERNATIVE IS THERE? Genuine question.
Other countries (a few) rely on random testing or (a minority) on just testing on arrival, but that simply can’t (and doesn’t) work and the results speak for themselves. The tests simply aren’t good enough.
If Thailand opened it’s borders to all as before, even if it tested everyone on arrival and only quarantined those testing positive that would still mean over one million (3% of the 40 million tourists) false readings and so some one million imported Covid-19 cases every year.
Do you, or those suggesting the restrictions are eased, seriously think Thailand could cope with a million imported cases a year?
Or the 30,000 deaths out of that million (Covid-19 has a 3% fatality rate) just in the ‘first round’ before anyone else was infected?
That isn’t “scaring the public” for no reason – it’s just basic common sense, as most countries have realised.
The majority of false negatives come from swab tests and are the result of poor administration. If the sample is not taken from right at the back of the nose and throat which are uncomfortable to say the least, then there is a high risk of not detecting the virus. Thus a false negative.
False positives, Glen is absolutely correct. They essentially come from a previous infection. If you have had Covid and recovered, asymptomatic or not. You can and do host dead virus cells that will simply show existence on the test. There is every chance that this will still happen after we have a vaccine. But I believe the test will then be altered to look for the T-cells that the vaccine will need to produce. They are the cells that recognise the virus and generate a response.
If Thailand does not balance its economy then there will be much bigger problems ahead. Yet to be confirmed, because it may be fake news (I have mailed the editor to see if he has any confirmation) but I heard last night that Honda, Toyota, Samsung and Toshiba along with other big names are starting to pull out of Thailand and re-establish in Vietnam. If that is happening it will be a major financial loss to Thailand and they are all Asean companies.
Where do you get your numbers from?? Who are you to speculate when you say “Thailand could not cope with a million imported cases a year”?? Are you a scientist? Cause your reactions (here as before with other comments) are irrationally driven by fear. Maybe more and more people do not want to live their lives anymore like you do, in fear, including Thai people.
“As is widely known and accepted, they vary between 93 and 97% accurate”.. This is a complete misinformation you are giving us here… Let the scientists dealing with the numbers and data, what you are doing (copying I would say without any rational thinking) here is what many governments all over the world are doing, interpreting wrongly real numbers to put fear in their populations (why? I guess history will tell eventually…or maybe not). The percentage of inaccuracy is FAR higher than your numbers (at least 50% in some many cases), countless of scientists, professors and doctors are voicing their alarming opinions more loudly about this (do the work yourself this time, look for real informations). And this is (OBVIOUSLY) the main reason why in many countries, notably in Europe, the numbers of cases are rising (but not the number of deaths – not to mention that in many cases, people who died with the virus did not dies FROM the virus but still counted within). The other one being (also obviously) because they are testing 1000 times (figure of speech of course, the number varies from country to country, the point being it is far much higher) than previously.
Finally: are you over 65 or 70? if yes, do you have kids? If yes, do they also have kids? (I ask you but I mean of course to demonstrate a REAL fact here…nothing to do with you) So you want to keep Thailand and the world sealed so (your) children (people) sacrifice their children (your grand children) for a tiny (TINY) percentage of elderlies (you) who are in the vast majority of cases already very ill? Because now, the worst of the pandemic behind us (yes hardly anyone is dying from it now whether you like or not – a pandemic with hardly any people dying from the disease is NOT a pandemic), that is why is happening. So (your) people will loose their jobs, putting their kids (your grand kids) in a position of poverty with all other diseases that it will eventually include (physical and mental). Do you want these grand kids to live in fear like you for years, suffering 12 hours a day in school with their stupid masks on (please read about the effects on wearing a mask for so long everyday, plenty of scientific litterature out there)? What about freedom to choose to do what you feel right for yourself and your familly instead of doing what a goverment or else is telling you and basta???
What makes you think that the elderlies in Thailand want that for their kids and grand kids????
Is that the same Finland that only considers tourists arriving from four countries to be ‘low risk’, with two of those countries being Lichtenstein and the Vatican City, neither of which have airports?
The same Finland that has a Covid-19 fatality rate of over 4.25% in its hospitals that are apparently in a “normal state”, which is 50% higher than the global average?
That has a low population density of 19 people per sq km, compared to 137 per sq km in Thailand?
@Isaan John, I just wanted to provide some additional context to how PCR tests work, it’s not simply a matter of “positive” or “negative”. What Glenn may be referring to is the number of cycles Thailand labs are using for the test and that many of these “positive” test results may be in the 30+ cycle range which the scientific community largely agrees is a level that would detect dead fragments (non contagious). An excerpt from a recent article in The NY Times I think succinctly describes the issue:
“ The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.
This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.
In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.
On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing.
One solution would be to adjust the cycle threshold used now to decide that a patient is infected. Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.
Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said.”
Issan John …. You are tha man – all-knowing? I don’t think so ?.
You are a fraud – non-Thai – Obvious Foreigner – what are your values?
Gimme a break – fatalities rates for ci=ovid etc etc etc. – who knows this as of now?
Open up Thailand as to alleviate the monetary suffering – while playing it safe.
Will this. work for you Isaan Jonh and the rest of the doubters – If not Thailand will go into the stone ages economy wise
Not even remotely “all knowing”, but I don’t think accepting figures from the WHO, John Hopkins, etc, rather than something plucked out of the sky by someone commenting here makes me “a fraud”!
… and ‘yes’ obviously a foreigner, although I’ve lived here for nearly thirty years.
My values? Well, human life comes pretty high on the scale – certainly rather higher than sacrificing other people’s lives wholesale just so some people can enjoy a cheap holiday and others can make a profit.
“Open up Thailand as to alleviate the monetary suffering – while playing it safe.”
I couldn’t agree with you more, and I only wish it was possible, but how do you do that?
HOW?
How is it possible to do both?
If you have the answer, then how about telling not just Thailand but all the other countries that have similarly closed their borders, from Japan to Taiwan, New Zealand to Cambodia, Canada to Vietnam?
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO DO BOTH?
Agreed, as with Bobby m, but the problem remains that for whatever the reason the tests are only 93 to 97% reliable.
An acknowledged failure rate of 3%, at best, means that without a 14 day quarantine period and re-testing during it and after you face some 20 people coming in to the country who are infected and carriers even if asymptomatic. There’s simply no getting round that.
Quarantine for 14 days and re-test, though, and you reduce that by a factor of 1,000.
As I’ve asked repeatedly, here and elsewhere, WHAT BETTER ALTERNATIVE IS THERE?
Thailand isn’t on its own here, as seems to be the suggestion. Most countries world-wide, from Taiwan to New Zealand and Japan to Canada have imposed similar or stronger border restrictions.
There is an alternative. Handle it like you should handle a serious Influenza epidemic/pandemic (mostly pandemic because it spreads over the world periodically quite predictable too but noone calls it that). Why? Because symptoms, illness and after effects are all very similar. Every doom story you read about covid applies directly to influenza too. Just google the reported issue and add influenza to the search. Same same. If you put a virus into a constant spotlight and overreport you will keep finding it. The world has gone completely mental in 2020. Covid is put in the same category as Ebola which is completely bullocks. In The Netherlands alone a medic group with support of 1000+ official and registered doctors and medic professionals tries to critize whats going on but gets no media attention. Why? Cause news is produced by a few global press agencies and bad news sells. Destroying economies for a mild virus. I guess the global money makers needed a correction in some values? Idk but one thing I do know: this virus is severely and dangerously overrated. All proportionally thinking went out of the window right away. First let it spread, then act as an headless chicken.
“… same same … very similar (to influenza) …”
Well … very similar apart from the fatality rate if you catch it, which is 3% globally – 8% in Holland.
“… a mild virus” ? For some, but not so “mild” for the 8 in every 100 in Holland who’ve caught it, and died as a direct result.
Where do you get these numbers from? It is estimated that the real number of infected people are many times what the official numbers show (e.g. non tested asymptomatic cases) – e.g. the fatality rate is extremly low compared to the number of total people protracting sars-cov-2. In the end when this is over and the statistics can be made it might actually end up not beeing so much higher than the mortality rate of other corona viruses. The people beeing tested are those who actually have symptoms and get sick – implicitly this could mean that the “official” IFR rates are a lot higher than the actual number. The IFR rate by july in Switzerland was between 0.6% to 5.6% depending on age, where the 5.6% was for old people above 65. The IFR have been declining steadily. We had a surge in infections in norway recently, but very few have been hospitalized (currently 24 in hospitals due sars-cov-2). How many do you think are hospitalized due to the normal seasonal flu? If you had sars-cov-2 post mortem it is counted as death by covid-19 – which give also contributes to higher IFR rates. Now if you die at age 90 with several other conditions and test post mortem positive for covid19 – did you die WITH covid19 or from covid19? We will know in 1-2 years, we might have robbed future generations with how this was handled around the world. Should we priortize the old ones who have lived their lives at the cost of our childrens future welfare? Tough choice with no right answer, and for developing nations the question is even tougher.
To follow up on your insane numbers for fatality rate, quoting estimates on IFR from Office for National Statisics and Medical Research Centre in the UK:
“In both cases, we observe an estimated IFR that falls over time, with estimates derived from ONS data higher than those from the MRC data.
ONS figures imply an IFR as of 4 August estimated at 0.49% (ONS 95% Credible interval, 0.36% to 0.67%).”
This article presents data from two models estimating daily infections in England, deriving recent IFRs estimates of 0.30% using the MRC unit’s data and 0.49% using ONS data
What a seriously bizarre, self-contradicting comment.
“Where do you get your numbers from??”
Which particular “numbers”? Those I’ve given are from the WHO, John Hopkins, etc. All widely sourced and all in very close agreement.
“Who are you to speculate when you say “Thailand could not cope with a million imported cases a year”?? Are you a scientist?”
Are you seriously suggesting Thailand could?
Plus the million local cases, assuming R1 which is way beyond unlikely except in a strict lockdown?
Please …..
“… interpreting wrongly real numbers”
Ummm …..
“The percentage of inaccuracy is FAR higher than your numbers (at least 50% in some many cases),…”
Quite possibly, but if correct that would only make things ten times WORSE !!!
“Because now, the worst of the pandemic behind us (yes hardly anyone is dying from it now whether you like or not – a pandemic with hardly any people dying from the disease is NOT a pandemic), that is why is happening.”
“… hardly anyone”? Really? The death rate has been steady, with the occasional spike, since mid-May. Possibly not on your planet, though…
“No” to pretty well all your remaining questions, which is precisely why I’m in favour of keeping the borders secure until a solution (test / vaccine / cure) is found.
“What about freedom to choose to do what you feel right for yourself and your familly instead of doing what a goverment or else is telling you and basta???”
What about it? Fine, as long as your “freedom to choose to do what you feel right for yourself and your familly” doesn’t affect others.
Unfortunately it does.
I have a simple explanation for these declarations of new contagious foreigners.
I do not think they have the virus.
Thai hospitals want to make money out of treating them.
Do the contagious people ever have chance of a second opinion. I doubt it.