Used car market in a jam as electric vehicles spark trouble

The used car market is in dire straits, with a shocking downturn blamed on the economic slump, soaring non-performing loans (NPLs), and the growing allure of electric vehicles (EVs), warns Tris Rating.

In a jaw-dropping revelation, used car hire-purchase firms have reported a staggering 93% plunge in profits year-on-year for the first half of 2024. Motorcycle hire-purchase companies haven’t fared much better, with profits down by 71%, while truck hire-purchase firms saw a hefty 48% drop, according to a Tris Rating report.

“The crux of the issue lies in skyrocketing financial costs and credit expenses, stemming from provisions for bad debts and losses on repossessed vehicles. This is all due to plummeting used car prices, particularly for trucks and cars.”

Credit expenses have surged most dramatically in the used car sector, followed by trucks and motorcycles. In the first half of the year, the NPL ratio for truck hire-purchase loans is set to spike from 4.09% at the end of 2023 to 5% by the second quarter. Meanwhile, used car hire-purchase loans have seen their ratio climb from 5.82% to 6.07%.

Interestingly, motorcycle hire-purchase loans have bucked the trend, with their NPL ratio dropping from 4.08% to 3.61%, thanks to increased write-offs leading to a lower loan loss provision ratio. Nevertheless, Tris warns, “the debt quality remains weak.”

Rising credit costs from greater provisioning and write-offs raise red flags for many operators. The surge in EV popularity further exacerbates the situation, dampening sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, slowing auto lending, and putting downward pressure on used car prices, said Tris Rating.

Repossessed vehicles

“The sluggish economy has resulted in a wave of bad debts and vehicle repossessions. Prices for used ICE cars have plummeted by over 20-30%, cutting collateral value and leading many companies to suffer losses from repossessions.”

Truck hire-purchase loans are similarly beset by bad debts, with a surplus of repossessed vehicles driving used car prices even lower.

“Tris Rating predicts that in the short to medium term, we won’t see many new players entering the market. This industry requires substantial capital, given the high cost of trucks and the need for a large portfolio to spread risk. Over the next year, the hire-purchase business will likely continue to decelerate, mirroring the sluggish economy and soaring household debt.”

To weather these storms, operators must focus on maintaining credit quality.

“Competition is expected to be moderate, mainly for quality customers, limiting the ability to increase yields and offset rising costs. Moreover, loan rejection rates will remain elevated.”

Looking ahead, Tris Rating expects the sector to remain weak for the rest of 2024, hampered by economic uncertainty and a lack of government support. The drop in EV prices is also set to impact used car auction prices, further squeezing company performance in the coming months.

“A more robust recovery in earnings is on the horizon for the second half of 2025, when government stimulus measures are anticipated to kick in and give the economy a much-needed boost.”