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Phuket Business: Recalling the cycle of market emotions

Legacy Phuket Gazette

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Phuket Business: Recalling the cycle of market emotions | The Thaiger
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PHUKET: My first investment was in a stock fund in 1990 when I was an engineering student at university. I was told to just buy and hold and put money in blindly and it will grow.

They were somewhat right but I wanted to know more and began a quest to find a way to pinpoint what is known as the cycle of market emotions curve.

The point of maximum financial opportunity is at the bottom of the curve (despondency and depression). This is the ideal time to buy, but your emotional state (and mine) will be feeling overwhelmed. The market does bottom and turn into a bull market. It is not different this time. It is important to understand this cycle of market emotions.

One of the greatest investors of all time, Sir John Templeton, said: “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

So the news is turning more positive because we are in the maturing optimism stage. This is determined by looking at many components of investor psychology, global monetary policy and technical analysis.

A bear market (20+ points or more decline) is highly unlikely until we reach the ‘thrill’ and ‘euphoria’ stages. This time will come but is likely 12-30 months out depending on how fast investors warm up to buying stocks and what the Federal Reserve does.

Right now, growth stocks are the place to be investing in. This optimistic stage rewards investors who take risk and buy stocks with strong earnings and sales.

One point I want to make is the news in the early stages of a bull market (say in 2009) is often horrible doom and gloom. But bad news is actually good news and the stock market rallies.

Now we are entering a period of optimistic news. So when economic numbers come out and show strong job growth or home sales are up, we will see the market move higher. In this stage I would expect to see stocks release a strong quarter of earnings or sales.

Recently we’re seeing the global markets firing on all cylinders and economic news will continue to turn positive, while jobs and the housing market improve. Enjoy this period of growth. This is such an important stage. If you have laggards that aren’t participating, they need to be sold to focus your assets in stocks and funds hitting new highs and leading the market.

Don Freeman is president of Freeman Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor with the US Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), based in Phuket, Thailand.

He has over 15 years experience and provides personal financial planning and wealth management to expatriates. Specializing in UK and US pension transfers. Call 089-970-5795 or email: freemancapital@gmail.com.

— Don Freeman

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Archiving articles from the Phuket Gazette circa 1998 - 2017. View the Phuket Gazette online archive and Digital Gazette PDF Prints.

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The social media giants in battle with ‘old’ media and world governments | VIDEO

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The social media giants in battle with ‘old’ media and world governments | VIDEO | The Thaiger

“The rules signal greater willingness by countries around the world to rein in big tech firms such as Google, Facebook and Twitter that the governments fear have become too powerful with little accountability.”

India has issued strict new rules for Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms just weeks after the Indian government attempted to pressure Twitter to take down social media accounts it deemed, well, anti social.

The rules require any social media company to create three roles within India… a “compliance officer” who ensures they follow local laws; a “grievance officer” who addresses complaints from Indian social media users; and a “contact person” who can actually be contacted by lawyers and other aggrieved Indian parties… 24/7.

The companies are also being made to publish a compliance report each month with details about how many complaints they’ve received and the action they took.

They’ll also be required to remove ‘some’ types of content including “full or partial nudity,” any “sexual act” or “impersonations including morphed images”

The democratisation of the news model, with social media as its catalyst, will continue to baffle traditional media and governments who used to enjoy a level of control over what stories get told.

The battles of Google and Facebook, with the governments of India and Australia will be followed in plenty of other countries as well.

At the root of all discussions will be the difference between what governments THINK social media is all about and the reality about how quickly the media landscape has changed. You’ll get to read about it first, on a social media platform… probably on the screen you’re watching this news story right now.

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Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO

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Turbulence ahead for Thailand’s aviation industry | VIDEO | The Thaiger

When the airlines, in particular, were asking the government to put their hands in their pockets for some relief funding in August last year, it was genuinely thought that international tourists would be coming back for the high season in December and January. At the very least local tourists and expats would head back to the skies over the traditional holiday break. And surely the Chinese would be back for Chinese New Year?

As we know now, none of that happened. A resurge in cases started just south of Bangkok on December 20 last year, just before Christmas, kicking off another round of restrictions, pretty much killing off any possibility of a high season ‘bump’ for the tourist industry. Airlines slashed flights from their schedule, and hotels, which had dusted off their reception desks for the surge of tourists, shut their doors again.

Domestically, the hotel business saw 6 million room nights in the government’s latest stimulus campaign fully redeemed. But the air ticket quota of 2 million seats still has over 1.3 million seats unused. Local tourists mostly skipped flights and opted for destinations within driving distance of their homes.

As for international tourism… well that still seems months or years away, even now.

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Domestic air passenger numbers double those of January

Maya Taylor

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Domestic air passenger numbers double those of January | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Vietjet

Passenger numbers on domestic flights within Thailand have doubled within a month, rising from 4,000 in January to over 10,000 this month. Having nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels, domestic travel plummeted once more when Covid-19 resurfaced late last year.

Apirat Chaiwongnoi from the Department of Airports says 15 of Thailand’s 29 airports are now operating domestic flights, with more expected to follow. He believes the aviation sector will continue to recover further in the coming 6 months, bolstered by the national vaccine rollout.

Around 120 domestic flights a day are now operating, which is twice the number that were operating at the lowest point in the crisis. Prior to the resurgence of the virus in December, domestic passenger numbers had recovered to 30,000 – 40,000 a day, around 80% of pre-pandemic numbers.

The DoA says airports must continue to adhere to the Covid-19 hygiene measures put in place by the Health Ministry and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

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