ADB revises Thailand GDP forecast, warns of slower Asia growth
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised its economic forecasts today, upgrading Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection for this year while maintaining next year’s estimate. However, the bank warns that developing Asia is set to experience slower growth than anticipated, with potential challenges looming due to possible changes in US trade policies under President-elect Donald Trump.
Developing Asia, encompassing 46 countries from Georgia to Samoa but excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, is expected to grow by 4.9% this year and 4.8% next year. These figures are slightly reduced from the ADB’s earlier forecasts of 5.0% and 4.9%, respectively, released in September.
The bank attributes the reduced growth estimates to the lacklustre economic performance in certain regions during the third quarter and a subdued outlook for consumer spending.
The ADB’s latest Development Outlook report, released today, December 11, highlights an increase in Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.3% to 2.6%, while the forecast for the next year remains unchanged at 2.7%.
Projections for China remain steady at 4.8% growth for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025. However, the ADB has adjusted its growth forecasts for India, lowering them to 6.5% for 2024 from an earlier estimate of 7.0% and to 7.0% for the following year, down from 7.2%.
The ADB cautioned that potential modifications to US trade, fiscal, and immigration policies might impede growth and spur inflation in developing Asia, although such impacts are expected to be more pronounced beyond the 2024 to 2025 forecast period.
As Donald Trump prepares to assume office on January 20, there are concerns over his proposed economic policies, including imposing tariffs exceeding 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, cracking down on illegal immigration, and broadening tax cuts, reported Bangkok Post.
“Downside risks persist and include faster and larger US policy shifts than currently envisioned, a worsening of geopolitical tensions, and an even weaker property market in the People’s Republic of China,” said a bank spokesperson.
In response to softening global commodity prices, the ADB has lowered its inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 to 2.7% and 2.6%, down from previous projections of 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.
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