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Phuket accommodation pipeline – 55 new hotels under development

Bill Barnett

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by Bill Barnett from c9hotelworks.com

PHOTO: Horizon Beach Resort Hotels Phuket

One of Asia’s leading resort destinations Phuket looks set to weather a perfect storm as soaring hotel supply is forecast to be challenged by declining tourism demand. New research from consulting group C9 Hotelworks in their Phuket Hotel Market Update Mid-Year Edition has revealed an island development pipeline of 15,348 keys set to enter the market over the next five years, which represents an 18% push in total supply.

During the first four months of 2019 which is ranked as high season, year-on-year international passenger arrivals at Phuket International Airport slipped by 3%, while the domestic segment was down 6%. Looking into the data, the first half of 2018 had been a record-setting tourism period, as the succeeding six months experienced a sharp decline due to the retraction of the Mainland China market.

Mainland China remains at the forefront of any discussion about Phuket and the segment remains volatile with a 19% decrease registered this year from January through May. Russian arrivals have yet to fully recover. On the upside, fast-growing Indian arrivals tripled their tourism trajectory during the same period, versus 2018.

Hotel performance has mirrored the current trend, according to STR data this reflects a 12% retraction of RevPAR (revenue per available room), driven largely by lower market-wide occupancy. While May and September are the two lowest months for Phuket hotels, July and August are projected to experience a boosts in occupancy. But the reality remains that non-high season attracts significantly lower room rates and this factor will undoubtedly suppress overall rate growth during the year.

The C9 Hotelworks report also highlights the growing influence of hotel branded residences on the Phuket accommodation market. Over 50% of the incoming pipeline, or 8,337 units, are being developed. Majority of these products are condominium properties with many being affiliated to international hotel groups via management or franchise agreements. Despite the drop in Chinese tourists, a number of Mainland real estate conglomerates have entered the island property sector.

Summarising, Phuket’s forecasted tourism market conditions, C9 Hotelworks view is that with the development of the new Greater Phuket airport by AoT in Southern Phang Nga, the long- term forecast remains positive. It’s probable that current hotel sector will experience a similar cycle that Bali saw between 2014-2018 and that new supply will eventually be absorbed on a medium-term basis, but in the shorter term, demand remains a key risk factor impacting operators and owners.

To read and download C9 Hotelworks full report click HERE.

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Bill Barnett has over 30 years of experience in the Asian hospitality and property markets. He is considered to be a leading authority on real estate trends across Asia, and has sat at almost every seat around the hospitality and real estate table. Bill promotes industry insight through regular conference speaking engagements and is continually gathering market intelligence. Over the past few years he has released four books on Asian property topics.

Business

Thailand’s media spend shrinks as brands shy away from ‘bad’ news

The Thaiger

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Thailand’s media spend shrinks as brands shy away from ‘bad’ news | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Thailand Business News

Young protesters, who use social media and messaging intuitively vs Thai officials and police who try and track those messages to keep up with the plans of the protest movement. Although Thai police have water cannons and brute force, the Thai youth at the core of the current protest movement also have a valuable weapon. And it’s being used more than ever at the moment. But this increased traffic is not transforming into increased media spending from Thailand’s main brands.

Social media analyts Wisesight say social media is being ‘weaponised’, not only to plan and communicate with fellow protesters, but also “spread the word” of the issues behind their campaign and share their stories with friends. Posts on social media have nearly doubled to 40 million messages a day over the past week. The daily average of posts in past months are around 20-22 million a day.

“Some 40 million messages were posted on social media in Thailand on Oct 15, mainly driven by political strife,” according to Kla Tangsuwan, CEO of Wisesight.

But the increased traffic on social media hasn’t meant that brands are increasing their spending to take advantage of the additional ‘reach’.

In fact, Wisesight say brands are pausing digital media spending after the political conflict ramped up this week. Usually digital media spend spikes in Q4 with the approaching festive season, a peak buying time for consumers. Media were hoping that sentiment would rebound as the world “pandemic” started the settle in October, but fresh political protests, and a surge in new global Covid-19 cases, have caused brands to “pause or wait and see”.

“Brands have begun to hold back on digital media spending in the fourth quarter as political messages flood online platforms, drawing attention away from commercial activity.”

According to the business director of Media Intelligence, Pawat Ruangdejworachai, businesses are pausing their media spend.

“They lack confidence and are hard to gain attraction from audiences that have more interest in political movements.”

The report also notes that Thailand’s social media landscape, and broader media landscape generally, are entering a new paradigm where usage is driven mainly by Generations Y and Z who use their media intuitively and consume it in real time, the vast majority on their smartphones.

Gen Y. Gen Y, or Millennials, were born between 1980 and 1994. They are currently between 24-39 years old.

Gen Z. Gen Z is the newest generation to be named and were born between 1996 and 2015. They are currently between 5-24 years old.

According to Media Intelligence, media spending is expected to fall 20% in Thailand to 71.2 billion baht this year. Internet channels are forecast to be the only media which will see growth this year, up 0.5% to 19.7 billion baht.

SOURCE: wisesight.com

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Business

Foreign investors and businesspeople seek clarity about the current “situation” in Thailand

The Thaiger

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Foreign investors and businesspeople seek clarity about the current “situation” in Thailand | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Are business groups still able to "meet"? - EU Business Avenues

With Thailand battling to come up with a safe and sustainable manner of re-opening its borders, and the footage of the street protests reaching out to a world audience, foreign investors are saying they need more details of what they can or cannot do in Thailand under the new State of Emergency.

The Thai Chamber of Commerce is calling for additional details and a long term “plan” about how Thailand is going to slowly re-open and how foreign businesses can continue to invest in the country under the current “restrictions”. The State of Emergency, announced hastily on Thursday morning at 4am and then endorsed by the Thai cabinet yesterday afternoon, sends mixed signals to business and the Thai Chamber of Commerce is seeking more clarification.

TCC chairman Kalin Sarasin says that foreign investors are enquiring whether they can go ahead with holding conferences and meetings in Thailand, after the decrees’ ban on gatherings of more than 5 people. People in a BTS Skytrain carriage, or even the meeting of the Thai cabinet yesterday are gatherings of more than 5 people, so the TCC want answers to what, specifically, is allowed and what is not.

The Nation reports that Chambers of commerce in Thailand’s provinces are also asking Kalin if they will be able to continue with planned activities.

“It would take a few days to judge whether emergency rule will hit foreign-investor confidence. The economy could escape damage from political turmoil if the anti-government protests end soon.”

Meanwhile, according to the Japan External Trade Organisation, Japanese “faith in Thailand remains high”, JETRO president Atsushi Taketani says that Japanese investors “were still confident in Thailand and remain committed to driving its economy regardless of current political situation”.

The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand says that Thailand’s core economic showpieces, including development of the Eastern Economic Corridor, won’t be affected by escalating political tensions.

And the deputy governor of the authority, Attapon Jirawatjanya, stated that… “ongoing anti-establishment protests would be a short-term problem”.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand

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Economy

Bangkok office rents drop for the first time in 10 years

Caitlin Ashworth

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Bangkok office rents drop for the first time in 10 years | The Thaiger
PHOTO: Unsplash: Ragnar Vorel

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to take a toll on Thailand, and the region’s, economy, Bangkok office rents and occupancy rates are expected to drop after consistent growth over the past 10 years, according to Colliers International Thailand.

It will be the first contraction in that sector since 2010, according to the property consultancy’s associate director of research and communication, Phattarachai Taweewong. He adds that it is one of the “roughest years because of political unrest.” Since July, pro-democracy protesters have been calling on an end to the military-run government and a rewrite of the 2017 Constitution.

The ‘political unrest’ is not a new topic in Thailand and Bangkok life, but the affects of the Covid-19 lockdowns and border closures since April have put the Thai economy into recession and forcing smaller and larger businesses to reassess their businesses and trim their costs, including Bangkok’s high rents.

Bangkok office rents and occupancy rates grew around 3 – 5% each year from 2011 to 2019, but after this year’s 3 month lockdown and business restrictions, rents and occupancy rates have fallen, and are forecast to continue to fall. The new office demand following the lockdown was mostly relocations to buildings with lower rent option with landlords prepared to deal. Colliers predicts that trend will continue until at least the end of the year.

“Many tenants are struggling with the business downturn. Some returned rental spaces to landlords. Others asked for a decrease in rental rates to save on costs… Landlords cut rents slightly to help tenants. Some offered a lower rent to retain existing tenants.”

HERE’sa perspective of the situation back in May this year.

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

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