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Thai Health Ministry predicts 5 likely Covid outcomes post-Songkran, warns of risks posed by partying

Maya Taylor



PHOTO: Facebook / National News Bureau of Thailand

The Public Health Ministry is warning the public that partying and letting ones guard down could see daily Covid-19 infections rise to nearly 3,000. Opas Karnkawinpong from the Disease Control Department says evidence shows that the third wave of the virus which is currently spreading across the country is a result of younger people, aged 20 – 29, socialising frequently and with multiple contacts. He says it is more common during this latest outbreak to see entire families contracting the virus as a result.

His warning comes as officials outline the 5 most likely scenarios they envisage following the long Songkran holiday.

Scenario 1
If nightlife and entertainment venues are allowed to remain open, the country could see an average of 9,140 cases a day.

Scenario 2
If entertainment and nightlife is closed in high-risk, “red” provinces only, officials expect an average of 2,996 daily infections.

Scenario 3
If nightlife is closed and private parties are curtailed, average daily new infections could drop to 934.

Scenario 4
Daily new Covid-19 cases could drop to 593 if all entertainment venues are shut, private parties are cancelled, and public gatherings are curtailed.

Scenario 5
Average daily new infections could drop to 391 with the closing of nightlife and entertainment venues, the cancellation of private parties, a reduction in group activities, and a move to working from home.

Meanwhile, Deputy PM Wissanu Krea-ngam is dismissing the possibility of curfews in red zone provinces, claiming “it is not needed”. Wissanu maintains that the colour-coded zones are “efficient at this stage”.

Last week, officials did computer modelling that showed, in the complete absence of disease prevention measures, with people left to live their lives as normal, the number of new daily infections could exceed 20,000.

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration meets this afternoon to discuss the implementation of additional Covid-19 restrictions, widely believed to include a ban on the sale of alcohol in restaurants and eateries having to close at 9pm in “red” provinces. 18 provinces have been designated as “red” or maximum control zones, but this number is expected to rise.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand


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  1. Avatar


    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 12:10 pm

    If they kill all population infection will drop to zero.
    Consider it, we can defeat covid.

  2. Avatar


    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 12:18 pm

    the guy want to look super clever by giving many very precises numbers, so childish and vain, but it make the expected effect, and he can get a big salary for that, in the ream of blind…
    so i predict a 6th scenario that will cause 14232.25 case of covid if all the right condition are united, easy to be clever !

  3. Avatar

    CJ Hinke

    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 12:39 pm

    LOCKDOWN NOW! We did it before!

  4. Avatar


    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 1:09 pm

    Speaking about Phuket now. They don’t talk about their main goal of vaccinating their people! The bars etc have been open for months with little affect on the increased numbers until this unfortunate situation earlier. I would think the best would be to find out why, what happened and then correct the problem. The people need to work which they say they understand BUT since their income remains the same or even more little concern is shown as they are not suffering.

  5. Avatar


    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 4:25 pm

    Estimation with exact numbers, how cleaver the computer is.

  6. Avatar

    John Davies

    Friday, April 16, 2021 at 5:04 pm

    He talks about songkran but the expats don’t celebrate it. So therefore all the infections are coming from Thai people acting irresponsibly, so why target the expats who normally follow the rules? Also, if they pulled their finger out and started rolling out the vaccine then they would have less of a problem but I guess they don’t want to spend the money.

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