Thai Health Ministry predicts 5 likely Covid outcomes post-Songkran, warns of risks posed by partying

The Public Health Ministry is warning the public that partying and letting ones guard down could see daily Covid-19 infections rise to nearly 3,000. Opas Karnkawinpong from the Disease Control Department says evidence shows that the third wave of the virus which is currently spreading across the country is a result of younger people, aged 20 – 29, socialising frequently and with multiple contacts. He says it is more common during this latest outbreak to see entire families contracting the virus as a result.

His warning comes as officials outline the 5 most likely scenarios they envisage following the long Songkran holiday.

Scenario 1
If nightlife and entertainment venues are allowed to remain open, the country could see an average of 9,140 cases a day.

Scenario 2
If entertainment and nightlife is closed in high-risk, “red” provinces only, officials expect an average of 2,996 daily infections.

Scenario 3
If nightlife is closed and private parties are curtailed, average daily new infections could drop to 934.

Scenario 4
Daily new Covid-19 cases could drop to 593 if all entertainment venues are shut, private parties are cancelled, and public gatherings are curtailed.

Scenario 5
Average daily new infections could drop to 391 with the closing of nightlife and entertainment venues, the cancellation of private parties, a reduction in group activities, and a move to working from home.

Meanwhile, Deputy PM Wissanu Krea-ngam is dismissing the possibility of curfews in red zone provinces, claiming “it is not needed”. Wissanu maintains that the colour-coded zones are “efficient at this stage”.

Last week, officials did computer modelling that showed, in the complete absence of disease prevention measures, with people left to live their lives as normal, the number of new daily infections could exceed 20,000.

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration meets this afternoon to discuss the implementation of additional Covid-19 restrictions, widely believed to include a ban on the sale of alcohol in restaurants and eateries having to close at 9pm in “red” provinces. 18 provinces have been designated as “red” or maximum control zones, but this number is expected to rise.

SOURCE: Nation Thailand