Ukraine aims to sever Russia-Crimea link, faces fortified defences
Ukrainian forces are determined to drive out the Russian army from their land, focusing on the strategic area between the city of Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of Azov. This “land corridor” connects Russia to the illegally annexed Crimea, and if Ukraine can successfully split it, it would cut off Russian troops in the west and make it difficult to resupply their garrison in Crimea. However, Russia has constructed formidable defensive fortifications in this area, making it challenging for Ukraine to progress.
Morale is high among Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting to liberate their own country from an invader. In contrast, many Russian troops lack motivation, and their training, equipment, and leadership are often inferior to Ukraine’s. The General Staff in Kyiv hopes that a sufficient breakthrough will lead to a collapse in Russian morale, causing demoralised troops to lose the will to fight.
Ukraine has the advantage of quality hardware provided by NATO countries, which can often withstand direct hits and protect the crew inside. However, Russia’s artillery and drone attacks remain a significant challenge. Additionally, Ukraine has been pleading with the West to supply F16 fighter jets for close air support, which are crucial when attacking a well dug-in enemy. The US approved this request in late May, but the F16s may arrive too late on the battlefield to play a key role in the early phases of the counter-offensive.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine has proven to be agile, resourceful, and inventive in the past. They successfully drove the Russian army out of Kherson by targeting their rear-area logistics hubs, and with long-range weapons like Britain’s Storm Shadow cruise missile, they will attempt to do the same now. However, amidst the propaganda war, it may be weeks or even months before a clearer picture of who is likely to ultimately prevail in this conflict emerges.
