China’s nuclear arsenal grows 17%, could match US, Russia by 2030
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has revealed that China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads has risen by 17% in 2022, with the nation’s arsenal expected to continue growing. The SIPRI Yearbook 2023 estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023. The report suggests that by 2030, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the United States or Russia, depending on how it structures its forces.
Hans M Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme, stated, “China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal.” He added that it is increasingly difficult to reconcile this trend with China’s declared aim of maintaining only the minimum nuclear forces needed for its national security.
Globally, SIPRI estimated there were 12,512 nuclear warheads in January 2023, with approximately 9,576 in military stockpiles for potential use—86 more than in January 2022. The US and Russia together possess almost 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. However, transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries due to the continuing war in Ukraine.
Dan Smith, SIPRI Director, warned, “We are drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history.” He urged governments worldwide to cooperate in calming geopolitical tensions, slowing arms races, and addressing the worsening consequences of environmental breakdown and rising world hunger.
In addition to China, India and Pakistan also appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, developing new types of nuclear delivery systems. North Korea has also prioritised its nuclear programme, with SIPRI estimating that Pyongyang has assembled about 30 warheads and has enough fissile material for between 50 and 70 warheads.
The United Kingdom’s warhead stockpile is also expected to grow after the government announced in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225 to 260 warheads. France is continuing with plans to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as refurbishing and upgrading existing systems. Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is also believed to be modernising its nuclear arsenal.
Matt Korda, associate researcher with SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme, warned, “This elevated nuclear competition has dramatically increased the risk that nuclear weapons might be used in anger for the first time since World War II.”
