Sharp rise in tourism predicted

SYDNEY: Asia will see strong performance in aviation, travel and tourism in the final quarter this year, according to an industry report just released. While Thailand is not singled out, the report says Asia has made an “unexpectedly rapid recovery” from the Sars virus scare and accelerated air traffic should ensure a “very positive” outlook. Pent-up demand should drive the revival in travel, according to the Sydney-based Center for Asia Pacific Aviation, an industry consultancy. The Center’s first major post-Sars analysis of prospects for 19 countries in the region says that the speed of the return to normal has been “almost breath-taking.” It predicts that airline passenger volumes should be back to 2002 levels and above for most of the region’s airlines by late September. The report credits discount offers and aggressive marketing for the revival. It warns, however, that there may be a “growth trough” in November, resulting from travel plans being brought forward as a result of fare bargains in the June-August period. The report also contains a couple more notes of caution, especially as hard-hit airlines recover from “the sharpest downturn in traffic in history.” Some airlines may need to restructure in the face of the arrival of low-cost competition, while the danger of another “bizarre phenomenon” such as Sars or a terrorist attack remains, the report says.